Famalicao
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
Famalicao52.8%fair odds 1.89
Draw27.4%fair odds 3.65
Nacional19.8%fair odds 5.05
Expected goals1.51 – 0.82total 2.33
Likeliest score1–014.0%
Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.
Match Opportunity
How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.
Nacional
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
About this comparison
The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.
Score matrix
| Famalicao ↓ · Nacional → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.4 | 7.4 | 3.3 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 14.0 | 12.7 | 5.0 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 2 | 11.1 | 9.1 | 3.7 | 1.0 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 3 | 5.6 | 4.6 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 2.1 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 6+ | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are Famalicao goals, columns Nacional goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.
Most likely scores
- 1–014.0%7.12
- 1–112.7%7.88
- 2–011.1%9.03
- 0–010.4%9.63
- 2–19.1%11.00
- 0–17.4%13.59
- 3–05.6%17.97
- 1–25.0%20.20
- 3–14.6%21.89
- 2–23.7%26.80
Winning margin
11.2%
Famalicao by 3+
fair 8.93
16.4%
Famalicao by 2
fair 6.09
25.2%
Famalicao by 1
fair 3.96
27.4%
Draw
fair 3.65
13.4%
Nacional by 1
fair 7.44
4.9%
Nacional by 2
fair 20.55
1.5%
Nacional by 3+
fair 67.06
Goal distribution
Total goals
10%0
21%1
27%2
21%3
12%4
9%5+
Famalicao goals
22%0
33%1
25%2
13%3
7%4+
Nacional goals
44%0
36%1
15%2
4%3
1%4+
LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda
| LOAD90 | EloLambda | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Famalicao win | 52.8% | 53.4% | -0.6 pp |
| Draw | 27.4% | 26.6% | +0.8 pp |
| Nacional win | 19.8% | 20.0% | -0.2 pp |
| Over 2.5 | 41.2% | 44.1% | -3.0 pp |
| Both teams score | 44.2% | 46.6% | -2.4 pp |
| Expected goals Famalicao | 1.51 | 1.58 | -0.07 |
| Expected goals Nacional | 0.82 | 0.87 | -0.05 |
EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.
All markets model probability and fair odds
Result
- Famalicao win52.8%1.89
- Draw27.4%3.65
- Nacional win19.8%5.05
- Double chance Famalicao or draw80.2%1.25
- Double chance Famalicao or Nacional72.6%1.38
- Double chance Nacional or draw47.2%2.12
- Draw no bet Famalicao72.7%1.37
- Draw no bet Nacional27.3%3.67
Goals
- Over 0.589.6%1.12
- Over 1.568.2%1.47
- Over 2.541.2%2.43
- Over 3.520.7%4.84
- Over 4.58.7%11.48
- Under 1.531.8%3.15
- Under 2.558.8%1.70
- Under 3.579.3%1.26
Both teams to score
- Yes44.2%2.26
- No55.8%1.79
- Yes and over 2.531.5%3.17
- Famalicao win and yes19.2%5.20
- Draw and yes17.0%5.89
- Nacional win and yes8.0%12.44
Team goals
- Famalicao over 0.577.9%1.28
- Famalicao over 1.544.5%2.25
- Famalicao over 2.519.3%5.18
- Nacional over 0.556.0%1.79
- Nacional over 1.519.9%5.03
- Nacional over 2.55.0%19.81
- Famalicao clean sheet44.0%2.27
- Nacional clean sheet22.1%4.52
- Famalicao win to nil33.6%2.97
- Nacional win to nil11.8%8.50
Handicap
- Famalicao −1.527.6%3.62
- Famalicao −2.511.2%8.93
- Nacional +1.572.4%1.38
- Nacional +2.588.8%1.13
- Nacional −1.56.4%15.73
- Famalicao +1.593.6%1.07
Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.
Model track record Primeira Liga 2025-2026
All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.
Matches scored233
Favourite won58.8%
Avg chance given to result44.2%
1X2 Brier0.536
Over 2.5 called right57.9%
BTTS called right55.4%
Calibration · when the favourite was given…
| Favourite chance | Matches | Predicted | Actually won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40% | 45 | 37.7% | 42.2% |
| 40–50% | 77 | 44.5% | 48.1% |
| 50–60% | 46 | 54.6% | 56.5% |
| 60–70% | 31 | 65.2% | 83.9% |
| 70–80% | 26 | 75.3% | 80.8% |
| 80%+ | 8 | 84.1% | 100.0% |
LOAD90 vs Bookmaker
Compared on the same 181 of 233 scored matches.
| LOAD90 | Bookmaker | |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 Brier (lower is better) | 0.5169 | 0.5038 |
| Avg chance given to result | 45.4% | 47.1% |
| Favourite won | 63.0% | 61.3% |
Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off. Bookmaker identity is unavailable for 181 archived lines; these prices may come from different bookmakers.
Latest results
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- ✗Nacional 0–1 Estoril38·28·34
- ✓Arouca 1–2 Benfica16·23·61
- ✗GIL Vicente 2–2 Alverca59·24·17
- ✗Guimaraes 1–2 Famalicao41·28·31
- ✗Tondela 0–1 Rio Ave44·30·26
- ✗Santa Clara 2–0 Guimaraes36·28·36
Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 233 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.