FC Augsburg
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
FC Augsburg were slight favourites.
The two sides are close in strength. Recent goals, xG and shots on target tip the balance towards FC Augsburg. FC Augsburg had 6.2 days of rest, 1.FC Köln 6.2 and had to travel 402 km.
Away travel402 kmRest days6.2 · 6.2Matches / 14d2 · 2
FC Augsburg54%
Draw24%
1.FC Köln23%
FC Augsburg47%
Draw26%
1.FC Köln27%
FC Augsburg52%
Draw24%
1.FC Köln24%
FC Augsburg46%
Draw25%
1.FC Köln29%
FC Augsburg53%
Draw25%
1.FC Köln23%
Over 2.5 58%
Both score 58%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Augsburg)
No weather data yet
Referee · GermanyTobias Welz
- Cards per match 4.3
- Penalties per match 0.22
- Matches 49
Team strength
FC Augsburg
1.FC Köln
42
L90 StrengthIn forecast
37
50
Current StrengthIn forecast
34
72
AttackIn forecast
36
23
DefenceIn forecast
36
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysis1.FC Köln
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
FC Augsburg1.FC Köln
1.22
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.43
1.78
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.70
1.05
xGVia Att/Def
1.23
1.63
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.56
+0.17
Goals minus xGContext
+0.20
70%
Scored inContext
87%
17%
Clean sheetsContext
13%
12.30
ShotsContext
12.04
4.17
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.36
34%
On target shareContext
35%
7.36
Shots in the boxContext
8.27
60%
Box shareContext
66%
10%
ConversionContext
12%
2.24
OffsidesContext
2.39
13.00
Shots allowedContext
14.04
4.41
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.00
4.50
BlocksContext
4.27
2.70
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.23
59%
Save rateContext
65%
46%
PossessionIn forecast
47%
401
PassesContext
391
322
Accurate passesContext
316
80%
Pass accuracyContext
81%
6.77
Team ratingContext
6.83
11.17
FoulsContext
7.87
11.78
Fouls sufferedContext
10.22
2.57
Yellow cardsContext
1.57
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.04
1.10
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.10
1.40
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.80
1.12
xGVia Att/Def
1.14
1.56
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.65
-0.02
Goals minus xGContext
-0.04
60%
Scored inContext
80%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
10%
12.90
ShotsContext
12.10
4.50
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.80
35%
On target shareContext
31%
7.56
Shots in the boxContext
8.60
59%
Box shareContext
68%
9%
ConversionContext
9%
1.89
OffsidesContext
2.25
12.30
Shots allowedContext
14.50
4.33
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.10
4.44
BlocksContext
4.11
2.56
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.20
59%
Save rateContext
63%
48%
PossessionIn forecast
45%
423
PassesContext
357
344
Accurate passesContext
277
81%
Pass accuracyContext
78%
6.83
Team ratingContext
6.80
9.80
FoulsContext
6.40
12.90
Fouls sufferedContext
10.10
2.00
Yellow cardsContext
1.30
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
FC Augsburg
Rest6.2 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km901 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
1.FC Köln
Rest6.2 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel402 km575 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| FC Augsburg |
1.FC Köln |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 6.2Bundesliga 2025-2026, 21 Feb | 6.2Bundesliga 2025-2026, 21 Feb |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 402 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 901 km | 575 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 4 | 1 / 2 / 4 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 7.8 | 7.9 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
FC Augsburg
Confirmed XI
1F. Dahmen(G)
16C. Zesiger
31K. Schlotterbeck
40N. Banks
32F. Rieder
4H. Massengo
17K. Jakić
19Robin Fellhauer
20A. Claude-Maurice
36M. Kömür
21Rodrigo Ribeiro
1.FC Köln
Confirmed XI
1M. Schwäbe(G)
39C. Özkacar
22J. Simpson-Pusey
33R. van den Berg
32K. Lund
5T. Krauß
6E. Martel
16J. Kamiński
30M. Bülter
7G. Waldschmidt
9R. Ache
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences FC Augsburg
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
1.FC Köln
Scores -0.04 · concedes +0.06 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- FC Augsburg+1.9 pp
- Draw-0.6 pp
- 1.FC Köln-1.4 pp
Home / Away this season
FC Augsburg · Home
1.50points per game · 12 home games
- W-D-L
- 5-3-4
- Scored
- 1.25
- Conceded
- 1.58
1.FC Köln · Away
0.82points per game · 11 away games
- W-D-L
- 2-3-6
- Scored
- 1.09
- Conceded
- 1.82
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 16 this season
| Opponent | FC Augsburg | 1.FC Köln |
|---|---|---|
| VfL Wolfsburg | W 3–2 AW 3–1 H | W 1–0 HD 3–3 A |
| 1. FC Heidenheim | W 1–0 HL 1–2 A | D 2–2 A |
| FSV Mainz 05 | L 0–2 AL 1–4 H | W 2–1 HW 1–0 A |
| FC St. Pauli | W 2–1 HL 1–2 A | D 1–1 H |
| Bayern München | W 2–1 AL 2–3 H | L 1–3 H |
| SC Freiburg | D 2–2 HW 3–1 A | L 1–2 AW 4–1 H |
| Union Berlin | D 1–1 H | L 0–1 H |
| Borussia Mönchengladbach | L 0–4 A | L 1–3 A |
| Werder Bremen | D 0–0 H | D 1–1 A |
| Eintracht Frankfurt | L 0–1 A | L 3–4 H |
| Bayer Leverkusen | W 2–0 H | L 0–2 A |
| 1899 Hoffenheim | L 0–3 A | D 2–2 HW 1–0 A |
| Hamburger SV | W 1–0 H | W 4–1 H |
| VfB Stuttgart | L 2–3 A | L 1–3 AL 1–2 H |
| Borussia Dortmund | L 0–1 H | L 0–1 A |
| RB Leipzig | L 0–6 H | L 1–2 HL 1–3 A |
| Points | 27 of 66 · 1.23 per game | 23 of 66 · 1.05 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 7 of 7 meetings
1 FC Augsburg wins3 draws3 1.FC Köln wins
Goals per game1.29 – 1.86
Over 2.543%
Both scored86%
Clean sheets14% · 0%
- 18 Oct 20251.FC Köln1–1FC Augsburg
- 31 Mar 2024FC Augsburg1–11.FC Köln
- 4 Nov 20231.FC Köln1–1FC Augsburg
- 8 Apr 2023FC Augsburg1–31.FC Köln
- 16 Oct 20221.FC Köln3–2FC Augsburg
- 30 Apr 2022FC Augsburg1–41.FC Köln
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| FC Augsburg | 1.FC Köln | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.22 | 1.43 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.78 | 1.70 | |
| Match goals | 3.00 | 3.13 | 3.02 |
| Over 1.5 | 78% | 78% | |
| Over 2.5 | 61% | 61% | 58% |
| Over 3.5 | 39% | 43% | |
| Both teams scored | 57% | 74% | 58% |
| Clean sheets | 17% | 13% | |
| Failed to score | 30% | 13% | |
| Games | 23 | 23 |
| FC Augsburg | 1.FC Köln | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.10 | 1.10 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.40 | 1.80 | |
| Match goals | 2.50 | 2.90 | 3.02 |
| Over 1.5 | 70% | 80% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 70% | 58% |
| Over 3.5 | 30% | 40% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 70% | 58% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 10% | |
| Failed to score | 40% | 20% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| FC Augsburg | 1.FC Köln | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.48 | 4.18 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.74 | 5.95 | |
| Match total | 9.22 | 10.13 | 9.62 |
| Over 8.5 | 57% 13/23 | 59% 13/22 | |
| Over 9.5 | 43% 10/23 | 45% 10/22 | |
| Over 10.5 | 35% 8/23 | 36% 8/22 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.61 | 1.61 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.83 | 2.39 | |
| Match total | 4.44 | 4.00 | 3.94 |
| Over 3.5 | 70% 16/23 | 65% 15/23 | |
| Over 4.5 | 57% 13/23 | 43% 10/23 | |
| FC Augsburg | 1.FC Köln | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.10 | 4.20 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.10 | 5.40 | |
| Match total | 10.20 | 9.60 | 9.62 |
| Over 8.5 | 70% 7/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 5/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 40% 4/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.00 | 1.40 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.60 | 2.90 | |
| Match total | 3.60 | 4.30 | 3.94 |
| Over 3.5 | 60% 6/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 40% 4/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Tobias Welz Germany · 49 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.20league 3.79
Red cards0.14league 0.17
Cards 5+41%league 39%
Fouls23.4league 20.7
Penalties0.22league 0.36
Home wins45%league 46%
FC Augsburg9 with this referee
Record1-1-7
Cards · opp.3.0 · 1.8
Pens for · against0 · 2
Reds1
- D20 Dec 25H · Werder Bremen0–03
- L27 Sep 25A · 1. FC Heidenheim1–26
- L21 Dec 24A · Holstein Kiel1–54
- W26 Oct 24H · Borussia Dortmund2–13
- L27 Apr 24H · Werder Bremen0–31
1.FC Köln4 with this referee
Record1-0-3
Cards · opp.2.3 · 1.5
Pens for · against0 · 1
- L18 May 24A · 1. FC Heidenheim1–43
- W6 Apr 24H · VfL Bochum2–13
- L10 Mar 23H · VfL Bochum0–22
- L15 Jan 22H · Bayern München0–41
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
FC Augsburg23 games · scored 28 · conceded 41
3
4
0-15
3
9
16-30
5
9
31-45
7
7
46-60
2
7
61-75
8
5
76-90
1.FC Köln23 games · scored 33 · conceded 39
5
4
0-15
5
5
16-30
2
9
31-45
7
4
46-60
1
8
61-75
13
9
76-90
FC Augsburg10 games · scored 11 · conceded 14
2
0-15
2
16-30
2
3
31-45
4
1
46-60
1
4
61-75
4
2
76-90
1.FC Köln10 games · scored 11 · conceded 18
2
3
0-15
2
3
16-30
1
3
31-45
3
2
46-60
1
3
61-75
2
4
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
