FC Augsburg
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
FC Augsburg9.4%fair odds 10.60
Draw13.9%fair odds 7.18
Bayern München76.6%fair odds 1.30
Expected goals1.02 – 2.98total 4.00
Likeliest score1–28.3%
Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.
Match Opportunity
How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.
Bayern München
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
About this comparison
The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.
Score matrix
| FC Augsburg ↓ · Bayern München → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.1 | 5.2 | 8.2 | 8.1 | 6.0 | 3.6 | 3.0 |
| 1 | 1.6 | 5.9 | 8.3 | 8.2 | 6.1 | 3.7 | 3.0 |
| 2 | 0.9 | 2.8 | 4.2 | 4.2 | 3.1 | 1.9 | 1.5 |
| 3 | 0.3 | 1.0 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.5 |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 6+ | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are FC Augsburg goals, columns Bayern München goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.
Most likely scores
- 1–28.3%12.05
- 1–38.2%12.13
- 0–28.2%12.24
- 0–38.1%12.33
- 1–46.1%16.28
- 0–46.0%16.55
- 1–15.9%17.05
- 0–15.2%19.28
- 2–24.2%23.72
- 2–34.2%23.88
Winning margin
0.8%
FC Augsburg by 3+
fair 120.49
2.4%
FC Augsburg by 2
fair 42.49
6.3%
FC Augsburg by 1
fair 16.00
13.9%
Draw
fair 7.18
18.9%
Bayern München by 1
fair 5.29
20.2%
Bayern München by 2
fair 4.94
37.5%
Bayern München by 3+
fair 2.67
Goal distribution
Total goals
2%0
7%1
15%2
20%3
20%4
37%5+
FC Augsburg goals
36%0
37%1
19%2
6%3
2%4+
Bayern München goals
5%0
15%1
23%2
22%3
35%4+
LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda
| LOAD90 | EloLambda | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| FC Augsburg win | 9.4% | 10.5% | -1.1 pp |
| Draw | 13.9% | 15.2% | -1.2 pp |
| Bayern München win | 76.6% | 74.3% | +2.3 pp |
| Over 2.5 | 76.1% | 73.6% | +2.6 pp |
| Both teams score | 60.8% | 60.3% | +0.6 pp |
| Expected goals FC Augsburg | 1.02 | 1.01 | +0.00 |
| Expected goals Bayern München | 2.98 | 2.81 | +0.17 |
EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.
All markets model probability and fair odds
Result
- FC Augsburg win9.4%10.60
- Draw13.9%7.18
- Bayern München win76.6%1.30
- Double chance FC Augsburg or draw23.4%4.28
- Double chance FC Augsburg or Bayern München86.1%1.16
- Double chance Bayern München or draw90.6%1.10
- Draw no bet FC Augsburg11.0%9.12
- Draw no bet Bayern München89.0%1.12
Goals
- Over 0.597.9%1.02
- Over 1.591.1%1.10
- Over 2.576.1%1.31
- Over 3.556.6%1.77
- Over 4.537.0%2.70
- Under 1.58.9%11.24
- Under 2.523.9%4.19
- Under 3.543.4%2.30
Both teams to score
- Yes60.8%1.64
- No39.2%2.55
- Yes and over 2.555.0%1.82
- FC Augsburg win and yes6.5%15.41
- Draw and yes11.8%8.47
- Bayern München win and yes42.6%2.35
Team goals
- FC Augsburg over 0.563.8%1.57
- FC Augsburg over 1.527.0%3.70
- FC Augsburg over 2.58.3%12.01
- Bayern München over 0.594.9%1.05
- Bayern München over 1.579.8%1.25
- Bayern München over 2.557.2%1.75
- FC Augsburg clean sheet5.1%19.68
- Bayern München clean sheet36.2%2.76
- FC Augsburg win to nil2.9%33.94
- Bayern München win to nil34.1%2.94
Handicap
- FC Augsburg −1.53.2%31.41
- FC Augsburg −2.50.8%120.49
- Bayern München +1.596.8%1.03
- Bayern München +2.599.2%1.01
- Bayern München −1.557.7%1.73
- FC Augsburg +1.542.3%2.37
Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.
Model track record Bundesliga 2026-2027
All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.
Matches scored37
Favourite won51.4%
Avg chance given to result42.7%
1X2 Brier0.575
Over 2.5 called right78.4%
BTTS called right62.2%
Calibration · when the favourite was given…
| Favourite chance | Matches | Predicted | Actually won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40% | 2 | 38.2% | 50.0% |
| 40–50% | 17 | 43.3% | 35.3% |
| 50–60% | 7 | 55.8% | 42.9% |
| 60–70% | 4 | 65.1% | 100.0% |
| 70–80% | 5 | 73.2% | 80.0% |
| 80%+ | 2 | 86.2% | 50.0% |
LOAD90 vs Bookmaker
Compared on the same 37 of 37 scored matches.
| LOAD90 | Bookmaker | |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 Brier (lower is better) | 0.5750 | 0.5913 |
| Avg chance given to result | 42.7% | 42.3% |
| Favourite won | 51.4% | 51.4% |
Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off. Bookmaker identity is unavailable for 37 archived lines; these prices may come from different bookmakers.
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Pre-match forecasts only. 1 of 37 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.