FC Augsburg
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Bayern München were clear favourites.
Bayern München were the stronger side on L90 Strength (94 vs 50). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for FC Augsburg. FC Augsburg were without N. Banks and A. Kade. FC Augsburg had 21 days of rest, Bayern München 21.8 and had to travel 56 km. Conditions were neutral.
Away travel56 kmRest days21 · 21.8Matches / 14d0 · 0
FC Augsburg10%
Draw13%
Bayern München77%
FC Augsburg11%
Draw18%
Bayern München71%
FC Augsburg10%
Draw14%
Bayern München76%
FC Augsburg7%
Draw10%
Bayern München83%
FC Augsburg11%
Draw15%
Bayern München75%
Over 2.5 76%
Both score 61%
Likeliest score 1–2
Pre-match forecast. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Augsburg)
13°COvercast
- Precipitation 0.0 mm
- Wind 12 km/h
- Humidity 76%
Referee · GermanySven Jablonski
- Cards per match 3.8
- Penalties per match 0.18
- Matches 114
Team strength
FC Augsburg
Bayern München
50
L90 StrengthIn forecast
94
50
Current StrengthIn forecast
93
72
AttackIn forecast
96
23
DefenceIn forecast
90
66
Form indexContext
90
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisBayern München
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
FC AugsburgBayern München
2.75
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
3.50
1.50
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.50
1.77
xGVia Att/Def
3.14
2.44
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.57
+0.98
Goals minus xGContext
+0.36
100%
Scored inContext
75%
25%
Clean sheetsContext
50%
14.00
ShotsContext
21.75
7.25
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
8.75
52%
On target shareContext
40%
9.25
Shots in the boxContext
13.50
65%
Box shareContext
63%
20%
ConversionContext
16%
2.00
OffsidesContext
2.00
20.75
Shots allowedContext
5.75
7.25
On target allowedVia Att/Def
2.00
5.50
BlocksContext
2.50
5.25
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.00
72%
Save rateContext
86%
40%
PossessionIn forecast
71%
372
PassesContext
731
285
Accurate passesContext
657
77%
Pass accuracyContext
90%
7.23
Team ratingContext
7.41
8.75
FoulsContext
10.50
9.50
Fouls sufferedContext
10.00
1.25
Yellow cardsContext
1.00
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
2.20
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
3.30
1.60
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.20
1.68
xGVia Att/Def
2.57
1.85
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.25
+0.52
Goals minus xGContext
+0.73
90%
Scored inContext
90%
10%
Clean sheetsContext
40%
14.00
ShotsContext
19.50
6.10
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
8.20
44%
On target shareContext
42%
9.60
Shots in the boxContext
11.20
68%
Box shareContext
60%
16%
ConversionContext
17%
2.00
OffsidesContext
2.30
18.80
Shots allowedContext
9.00
6.30
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.56
5.50
BlocksContext
3.86
4.60
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.86
73%
Save rateContext
77%
38%
PossessionIn forecast
68%
336
PassesContext
681
256
Accurate passesContext
610
76%
Pass accuracyContext
90%
7.04
Team ratingContext
7.25
8.20
FoulsContext
8.30
9.60
Fouls sufferedContext
9.10
1.60
Yellow cardsContext
1.00
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
FC Augsburg
WWDL
Rest21 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 66 · 7 pts vs 5.2 for an average club · +1.4 vs expected
Bayern München
WDWWW
Rest21.8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel56 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 90 · 13 pts vs 7.0 for an average club · +0.5 vs expected
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| FC Augsburg |
Bayern München |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 21Bundesliga 2026-2027, 19 Sep | 21.8Bundesliga 2026-2027, 18 Sep |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 56 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 0 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 0 / 2 | 0 / 0 / 2 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 7 | 3.2 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
FC Augsburg
Confirmed XI
1F. Dahmen(G)
2C. Brackelmann
5C. Matsima
35A. Bah
16Hennes Behrens
32F. Rieder
4H. Massengo
7Y. Seol
21A. Ibrahimović
19Robin Fellhauer
9Rodrigo Ribeiro
Bayern München
Confirmed XI
1M. Neuer(G)
19A. Davies
4J. Tah
2D. Upamecano
44J. Stanišić
45A. Pavlović
6J. Kimmich
14L. Díaz
34I. Saibari
17M. Olise
9H. Kane
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences FC Augsburg
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.09 goals
Attack line −6.6% · Defence line −16.2% of weighted minutes
- DEF N. Banks Starter 6.80 Def −11.1%
- MID A. Kade Starter 6.90 Att −6.5% Def −5.0%
- ATT Uchenna Ogundu Depth 6.45 Att −0.1%
Bayern München
Scores -0.01 · concedes 0.00 goals
Attack line −3.9% · Defence line −0.0% of weighted minutes
- ATT J. Musiala Rotation 6.86 Att −3.9%
Total impact vs full squads
- FC Augsburg-0.6 pp
- Draw-0.6 pp
- Bayern München+1.2 pp
From eScored squad data: each player's weight is his role (core 3, starter 2, rotation 1, depth 0.5) times his share of minutes. Defenders and keepers count to the defence line, forwards to attack, midfielders half to each. EloLambda turns the lost share into fewer goals scored and more conceded (weight 0.1); the totals show how that moves the result chances.
Home / Away this season
FC Augsburg · Home
2.00points per game · 2 home games
- W-D-L
- 1-1-0
- Scored
- 2.50
- Conceded
- 1.00
Bayern München · Away
2.00points per game · 2 away games
- W-D-L
- 1-1-0
- Scored
- 1.00
- Conceded
- 0.50
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 1 this season
| Opponent | FC Augsburg | Bayern München |
|---|---|---|
| FC Schalke 04 | W 3–0 H | D 0–0 A |
| Points | 3 of 3 · 3.00 per game | 1 of 3 · 1.00 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 10 of 10 meetings
3 FC Augsburg wins0 draws7 Bayern München wins
Goals per game1.40 – 2.30
Over 2.580%
Both scored70%
Clean sheets10% · 20%
- 24 Jan 2026Bayern München1–2FC Augsburg
- 30 Aug 2025FC Augsburg2–3Bayern München
- 4 Apr 2025FC Augsburg1–3Bayern München
- 22 Nov 2024Bayern München3–0FC Augsburg
- 27 Jan 2024FC Augsburg2–3Bayern München
- 27 Aug 2023Bayern München3–1FC Augsburg
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| FC Augsburg | Bayern München | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.75 | 3.50 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.50 | 0.50 | |
| Match goals | 4.25 | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 75% | |
| Over 2.5 | 100% | 75% | 76% |
| Over 3.5 | 75% | 50% | |
| Both teams scored | 75% | 50% | 61% |
| Clean sheets | 25% | 50% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 25% | |
| Games | 4 | 4 |
| FC Augsburg | Bayern München | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.20 | 3.60 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.60 | 1.10 | |
| Match goals | 3.80 | 4.70 | 4.00 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 80% | |
| Over 2.5 | 90% | 80% | 76% |
| Over 3.5 | 70% | 70% | |
| Both teams scored | 80% | 60% | 61% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 40% | |
| Failed to score | 10% | 10% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| FC Augsburg | Bayern München | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.75 | 9.00 | |
| Corners conceded | 7.00 | 2.67 | |
| Match total | 11.75 | 11.67 | 10.89 |
| Over 8.5 | 75% 3/4 | 100% 3/3 | |
| Over 9.5 | 75% 3/4 | 100% 3/3 | |
| Over 10.5 | 75% 3/4 | 100% 3/3 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.25 | 1.00 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.25 | 2.50 | |
| Match total | 2.50 | 3.50 | 3.61 |
| Over 3.5 | 25% 1/4 | 75% 3/4 | |
| Over 4.5 | 0% 0/4 | 0% 0/4 | |
| FC Augsburg | Bayern München | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.90 | 6.33 | |
| Corners conceded | 6.20 | 4.11 | |
| Match total | 11.10 | 10.44 | 10.89 |
| Over 8.5 | 70% 7/10 | 89% 8/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 70% 7/10 | 56% 5/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 60% 6/10 | 44% 4/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.60 | 1.00 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.80 | 2.20 | |
| Match total | 3.40 | 3.20 | 3.61 |
| Over 3.5 | 40% 4/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 10% 1/10 | 20% 2/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Sven Jablonski Germany · 114 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.72league 3.54
Red cards0.11league 0.08
Cards 5+38%league 22%
Fouls20.5league 22.4
Penalties0.18league 0.16
Home wins42%league 51%
FC Augsburg4 with this referee
Record1-1-2
Cards · opp.2.8 · 2.0
Pens for · against1 · 0
- W6 Dec 25H · Bayer Leverkusen2–04
- L13 Jan 24H · Bayer Leverkusen0–13
- L11 Feb 23A · FSV Mainz 051–31
- D16 Jan 22H · Eintracht Frankfurt1–13
Bayern München12 with this referee
Record9-3-0
Cards · opp.1.0 · 1.3
Pens for · against1 · 1
- W28 Feb 26A · Borussia Dortmund3–20
- W22 Nov 25H · SC Freiburg6–21
- W10 May 25H · Borussia Mönchengladbach2–01
- D30 Nov 24A · Borussia Dortmund1–12
- W20 Apr 24A · Union Berlin5–10
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
FC Augsburg4 games · scored 11 · conceded 6
1
0-15
2
1
16-30
31-45
5
46-60
1
1
61-75
3
3
76-90
Bayern München4 games · scored 14 · conceded 2
0-15
3
16-30
2
31-45
3
1
46-60
3
1
61-75
3
76-90
FC Augsburg10 games · scored 22 · conceded 16
3
3
0-15
4
1
16-30
3
3
31-45
5
1
46-60
3
3
61-75
4
5
76-90
Bayern München10 games · scored 33 · conceded 12
2
1
0-15
5
3
16-30
4
3
31-45
6
3
46-60
7
1
61-75
9
1
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
