FC Augsburg
Attack—
Defense risk—
FC Augsburg
9th · 36 pts · 30 played
LLDDW
1–1Full time
Eintracht Frankfurt
8th · 42 pts · 30 played
WLDWL
Our take
FC Augsburg were slight favourites.
Eintracht Frankfurt were the stronger side on L90 Strength (52 vs 44). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for FC Augsburg. FC Augsburg had 7 days of rest, Eintracht Frankfurt 6.9 and had to travel 252 km.
Away travel252 kmRest days7 · 6.9Matches / 14d1 · 2
FC Augsburg44%
Draw24%
Eintracht Frankfurt32%
FC Augsburg38%
Draw27%
Eintracht Frankfurt34%
FC Augsburg43%
Draw24%
Eintracht Frankfurt33%
FC Augsburg36%
Draw24%
Eintracht Frankfurt40%
FC Augsburg44%
Draw25%
Eintracht Frankfurt31%
Over 2.5 64%
Both score 66%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Augsburg)
No weather data yet
Referee · GermanyHarm Osmers
- Cards per match 4.3
- Penalties per match 0.32
- Matches 103
Team strength
FC AugsburgEintracht Frankfurt
44
L90 StrengthIn forecast
52
50
Current StrengthIn forecast
48
72
AttackIn forecast
54
23
DefenceIn forecast
37
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisEintracht Frankfurt
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
FC AugsburgEintracht Frankfurt
1.27
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.83
1.80
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.90
1.14
xGVia Att/Def
1.27
1.72
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.38
+0.13
Goals minus xGContext
+0.56
73%
Scored inContext
90%
17%
Clean sheetsContext
23%
12.47
ShotsContext
11.57
4.23
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.43
34%
On target shareContext
38%
7.72
Shots in the boxContext
8.10
62%
Box shareContext
70%
10%
ConversionContext
16%
2.33
OffsidesContext
1.95
13.90
Shots allowedContext
12.27
4.72
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.79
4.65
BlocksContext
3.04
3.07
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.96
63%
Save rateContext
61%
44%
PossessionIn forecast
55%
385
PassesContext
492
306
Accurate passesContext
414
80%
Pass accuracyContext
84%
6.78
Team ratingContext
6.81
10.83
FoulsContext
9.47
11.23
Fouls sufferedContext
9.57
2.50
Yellow cardsContext
1.60
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.40
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.50
1.70
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.20
1.43
xGVia Att/Def
1.25
1.87
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.45
-0.03
Goals minus xGContext
+0.25
80%
Scored inContext
90%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
40%
13.20
ShotsContext
11.10
4.70
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.50
36%
On target shareContext
41%
8.60
Shots in the boxContext
7.90
63%
Box shareContext
71%
11%
ConversionContext
14%
2.25
OffsidesContext
2.50
15.20
Shots allowedContext
13.50
5.10
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.80
5.13
BlocksContext
4.11
3.70
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.70
73%
Save rateContext
77%
43%
PossessionIn forecast
61%
373
PassesContext
523
295
Accurate passesContext
456
79%
Pass accuracyContext
87%
6.79
Team ratingContext
6.95
10.00
FoulsContext
7.80
9.40
Fouls sufferedContext
9.40
2.20
Yellow cardsContext
1.50
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
FC Augsburg
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km816 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Eintracht Frankfurt
Rest6.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel252 km591 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| FC Augsburg |
Eintracht Frankfurt |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 7Bundesliga 2025-2026, 18 Apr | 6.9Bundesliga 2025-2026, 18 Apr |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 252 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 816 km | 591 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 1 / 3 | 1 / 2 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 7 | 7 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
FC Augsburg
Confirmed XI
1F. Dahmen(G)
16C. Zesiger
6J. Gouweleeuw
34Arthur Chaves
13D. Giannoulis
32F. Rieder
4H. Massengo
19Robin Fellhauer
20A. Claude-Maurice
30A. Kade
38M. Gregoritsch
Eintracht Frankfurt
Confirmed XI
23M. Zetterer(G)
21N. Brown
4R. Koch
15E. Skhiri
5A. Amenda
16H. Larsson
6O. Højlund
31L. Arrhov
42C. Uzun
29Ayoube Amaimouni-Echghouyab
25A. Kalimuendo
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences FC Augsburg
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Eintracht Frankfurt
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- FC Augsburg+0.5 pp
- Draw-0.2 pp
- Eintracht Frankfurt-0.3 pp
Home / Away this season
FC Augsburg · Home
1.47points per game · 15 home games
- W-D-L
- 6-4-5
- Scored
- 1.40
- Conceded
- 1.73
Eintracht Frankfurt · Away
1.20points per game · 15 away games
- W-D-L
- 4-6-5
- Scored
- 1.93
- Conceded
- 2.27
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 16 this season
| Opponent | FC Augsburg | Eintracht Frankfurt |
|---|---|---|
| Bayer Leverkusen | W 2–1 AW 2–0 H | L 1–3 HL 1–3 A |
| 1899 Hoffenheim | D 2–2 HL 0–3 A | L 1–3 HW 3–1 A |
| Hamburger SV | D 1–1 AW 1–0 H | D 1–1 A |
| VfB Stuttgart | L 2–5 HL 2–3 A | L 2–3 A |
| Borussia Dortmund | L 0–2 AL 0–1 H | D 3–3 H |
| RB Leipzig | L 1–2 AL 0–6 H | L 1–3 HL 0–6 A |
| 1.FC Köln | W 2–0 HD 1–1 A | D 2–2 HW 4–3 A |
| VfL Wolfsburg | W 3–2 AW 3–1 H | W 2–1 AD 1–1 H |
| 1. FC Heidenheim | W 1–0 HL 1–2 A | W 1–0 HD 1–1 A |
| FSV Mainz 05 | L 0–2 AL 1–4 H | L 1–2 AW 1–0 H |
| FC St. Pauli | W 2–1 HL 1–2 A | D 0–0 AW 2–0 H |
| Bayern München | W 2–1 AL 2–3 H | L 2–3 AL 0–3 H |
| SC Freiburg | D 2–2 HW 3–1 A | W 2–0 HD 2–2 A |
| Union Berlin | D 1–1 H | D 1–1 AL 3–4 H |
| Borussia Mönchengladbach | L 0–4 A | W 3–0 HW 6–4 A |
| Werder Bremen | D 0–0 H | D 3–3 AW 4–1 H |
| Points | 36 of 87 · 1.24 per game | 39 of 87 · 1.34 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 9 of 9 meetings
1 FC Augsburg wins5 draws3 Eintracht Frankfurt wins
Goals per game0.89 – 1.22
Over 2.544%
Both scored67%
Clean sheets22% · 33%
- 13 Dec 2025Eintracht Frankfurt1–0FC Augsburg
- 20 Apr 2025FC Augsburg0–0Eintracht Frankfurt
- 7 Dec 2024Eintracht Frankfurt2–2FC Augsburg
- 19 Apr 2024Eintracht Frankfurt3–1FC Augsburg
- 3 Dec 2023FC Augsburg2–1Eintracht Frankfurt
- 29 Apr 2023Eintracht Frankfurt1–1FC Augsburg
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| FC Augsburg | Eintracht Frankfurt | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.27 | 1.83 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.80 | 1.90 | |
| Match goals | 3.07 | 3.73 | 3.31 |
| Over 1.5 | 83% | 87% | |
| Over 2.5 | 60% | 67% | 64% |
| Over 3.5 | 37% | 53% | |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 70% | 66% |
| Clean sheets | 17% | 23% | |
| Failed to score | 27% | 10% | |
| Games | 30 | 30 |
| FC Augsburg | Eintracht Frankfurt | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.40 | 1.50 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.70 | 1.20 | |
| Match goals | 3.10 | 2.70 | 3.31 |
| Over 1.5 | 90% | 80% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 60% | 64% |
| Over 3.5 | 30% | 30% | |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 60% | 66% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 40% | |
| Failed to score | 20% | 10% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| FC Augsburg | Eintracht Frankfurt | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.33 | 4.30 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.43 | 4.48 | |
| Match total | 9.76 | 8.78 | 9.65 |
| Over 8.5 | 60% 18/30 | 56% 15/27 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 15/30 | 48% 13/27 | |
| Over 10.5 | 43% 13/30 | 22% 6/27 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.53 | 1.70 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.80 | 2.03 | |
| Match total | 4.33 | 3.73 | 3.88 |
| Over 3.5 | 67% 20/30 | 50% 15/30 | |
| Over 4.5 | 53% 16/30 | 33% 10/30 | |
| FC Augsburg | Eintracht Frankfurt | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.50 | 3.67 | |
| Corners conceded | 6.80 | 5.78 | |
| Match total | 11.30 | 9.45 | 9.65 |
| Over 8.5 | 80% 8/10 | 67% 6/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 60% 6/10 | 56% 5/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 60% 6/10 | 11% 1/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.20 | 1.70 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.80 | 1.90 | |
| Match total | 4.00 | 3.60 | 3.88 |
| Over 3.5 | 60% 6/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 40% 4/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Harm Osmers Germany · 103 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.14league 3.73
Red cards0.18league 0.17
Cards 5+45%league 38%
Fouls22.0league 20.3
Penalties0.32league 0.37
Home wins54%league 44%
FC Augsburg10 with this referee
Record2-2-6
Cards · opp.1.7 · 1.5
Pens for · against0 · 4
- L11 Jan 26A · Borussia Mönchengladbach0–41
- L9 Nov 25A · VfB Stuttgart2–33
- L14 Sep 25A · FC St. Pauli1–24
- L4 May 25H · Holstein Kiel1–30
- D2 Mar 25H · SC Freiburg0–01
Eintracht Frankfurt12 with this referee
Record6-4-2
Cards · opp.2.3 · 2.4
Pens for · against3 · 1
Reds2
- W14 Mar 26H · 1. FC Heidenheim1–03
- D30 Nov 25H · VfL Wolfsburg1–11
- W23 Aug 25H · Werder Bremen4–11
- W11 Jan 25A · FC St. Pauli1–03
- D27 Oct 24A · Union Berlin1–13
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
FC Augsburg30 games · scored 38 · conceded 54
6
7
0-15
4
10
16-30
6
12
31-45
9
10
46-60
3
7
61-75
10
8
76-90
Eintracht Frankfurt30 games · scored 55 · conceded 57
4
8
0-15
11
8
16-30
11
6
31-45
10
7
46-60
8
9
61-75
11
19
76-90
FC Augsburg10 games · scored 14 · conceded 17
3
4
0-15
1
1
16-30
1
4
31-45
3
3
46-60
1
1
61-75
5
4
76-90
Eintracht Frankfurt10 games · scored 15 · conceded 12
1
0-15
3
3
16-30
3
31-45
1
46-60
4
3
61-75
4
5
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
