FC Porto
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
FC Porto86.4%fair odds 1.16
Draw10.0%fair odds 9.98
AVS3.6%fair odds 27.65
Expected goals3.04 – 0.53total 3.58
Likeliest score3–013.1%
Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.
Match Opportunity
How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.
AVS
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
About this comparison
The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.
Score matrix
| FC Porto ↓ · AVS → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.0 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 8.3 | 4.8 | 1.2 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 2 | 12.9 | 6.9 | 1.8 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 3 | 13.1 | 7.0 | 1.9 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 10.0 | 5.3 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 6.1 | 3.2 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 6+ | 5.2 | 2.8 | 0.7 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are FC Porto goals, columns AVS goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.
Most likely scores
- 3–013.1%7.61
- 2–012.9%7.72
- 4–010.0%10.00
- 1–08.3%12.10
- 3–17.0%14.26
- 2–16.9%14.48
- 5–06.1%16.42
- 4–15.3%18.74
- 1–14.8%20.93
- 5–13.2%30.77
Winning margin
47.5%
FC Porto by 3+
fair 2.11
21.5%
FC Porto by 2
fair 4.64
17.3%
FC Porto by 1
fair 5.77
10.0%
Draw
fair 9.98
2.8%
AVS by 1
fair 35.27
0.7%
AVS by 2
fair 151.18
0.1%
AVS by 3+
fair 841.26
Goal distribution
Total goals
3%0
10%1
18%2
21%3
19%4
29%5+
FC Porto goals
5%0
14%1
22%2
22%3
36%4+
AVS goals
59%0
31%1
8%2
1%3
0%4+
LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda
| LOAD90 | EloLambda | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| FC Porto win | 86.4% | 86.7% | -0.3 pp |
| Draw | 10.0% | 9.7% | +0.4 pp |
| AVS win | 3.6% | 3.7% | -0.0 pp |
| Over 2.5 | 69.3% | 71.7% | -2.3 pp |
| Both teams score | 39.6% | 41.7% | -2.1 pp |
| Expected goals FC Porto | 3.04 | 3.14 | -0.10 |
| Expected goals AVS | 0.53 | 0.57 | -0.04 |
EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.
All markets model probability and fair odds
Result
- FC Porto win86.4%1.16
- Draw10.0%9.98
- AVS win3.6%27.65
- Double chance FC Porto or draw96.4%1.04
- Double chance FC Porto or AVS90.0%1.11
- Double chance AVS or draw13.6%7.33
- Draw no bet FC Porto96.0%1.04
- Draw no bet AVS4.0%24.88
Goals
- Over 0.597.0%1.03
- Over 1.587.5%1.14
- Over 2.569.3%1.44
- Over 3.548.0%2.08
- Over 4.528.9%3.46
- Under 1.512.5%7.97
- Under 2.530.7%3.26
- Under 3.552.0%1.92
Both teams to score
- Yes39.6%2.52
- No60.4%1.66
- Yes and over 2.534.8%2.87
- FC Porto win and yes30.7%3.25
- Draw and yes7.0%14.31
- AVS win and yes1.9%52.97
Team goals
- FC Porto over 0.595.2%1.05
- FC Porto over 1.580.7%1.24
- FC Porto over 2.558.7%1.70
- AVS over 0.541.3%2.42
- AVS over 1.510.1%9.95
- AVS over 2.51.7%58.63
- FC Porto clean sheet58.7%1.70
- AVS clean sheet4.8%21.00
- FC Porto win to nil55.6%1.80
- AVS win to nil1.7%57.86
Handicap
- FC Porto −1.569.0%1.45
- FC Porto −2.547.5%2.11
- AVS +1.531.0%3.23
- AVS +2.552.5%1.90
- AVS −1.50.8%128.15
- FC Porto +1.599.2%1.01
Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.
Model track record Primeira Liga 2025-2026
All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.
Matches scored141
Favourite won56.7%
Avg chance given to result43.2%
1X2 Brier0.551
Over 2.5 called right61.7%
BTTS called right56.0%
Calibration · when the favourite was given…
| Favourite chance | Matches | Predicted | Actually won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40% | 24 | 37.7% | 33.3% |
| 40–50% | 52 | 44.9% | 48.1% |
| 50–60% | 29 | 54.3% | 58.6% |
| 60–70% | 17 | 66.1% | 88.2% |
| 70–80% | 16 | 75.7% | 75.0% |
| 80%+ | 3 | 85.2% | 100.0% |
LOAD90 vs Bookmaker
Compared on the same 112 of 141 scored matches.
| LOAD90 | Bookmaker | |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 Brier (lower is better) | 0.5492 | 0.5284 |
| Avg chance given to result | 43.3% | 45.5% |
| Favourite won | 57.1% | 57.1% |
Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off. Bookmaker identity is unavailable for 112 archived lines; these prices may come from different bookmakers.
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Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 141 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.