FC Porto
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
FC Porto were clear favourites.
FC Porto were the stronger side on L90 Strength (76 vs 11). FC Porto usually keep the ball (58% on average), which points to more chances at both ends. FC Porto had 7.1 days of rest, AVS 8.2 and had to travel.
Rest days7.1 · 8.2Matches / 14d2 · 1
FC Porto86%
Draw10%
AVS4%
FC Porto87%
Draw10%
AVS4%
FC Porto86%
Draw10%
AVS4%
FC Porto81%
Draw13%
AVS5%
FC Porto87%
Draw10%
AVS4%
Over 2.5 69%
Both score 40%
Likeliest score 3–0
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Porto)
No weather data yet
Referee · PortugalBruno Jose Ribeiro Pires Costa
- Cards per match 4.0
- Penalties per match 0.29
- Matches 7
Team strength
FC Porto
AVS
76
L90 StrengthIn forecast
11
80
Current StrengthIn forecast
16
74
AttackIn forecast
17
80
DefenceIn forecast
21
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisAVS
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
FC PortoAVS
2.20
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.73
0.27
Goals concededVia Att/Def
2.60
1.80
xGVia Att/Def
0.90
0.50
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.76
+0.40
Goals minus xGContext
-0.17
93%
Scored inContext
53%
73%
Clean sheetsContext
0%
14.67
ShotsContext
9.73
5.80
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
2.87
40%
On target shareContext
30%
10.47
Shots in the boxContext
6.21
70%
Box shareContext
62%
15%
ConversionContext
8%
2.23
OffsidesContext
1.88
8.87
Shots allowedContext
14.47
2.00
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.67
3.27
BlocksContext
3.07
2.00
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.36
92%
Save rateContext
58%
56%
PossessionIn forecast
43%
457
PassesContext
319
390
Accurate passesContext
246
86%
Pass accuracyContext
77%
7.01
Team ratingContext
6.56
13.13
FoulsContext
14.27
11.40
Fouls sufferedContext
12.40
2.20
Yellow cardsContext
2.00
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.13
2.00
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.70
0.50
Goals concededVia Att/Def
2.80
1.68
xGVia Att/Def
0.93
0.60
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.89
+0.32
Goals minus xGContext
-0.23
100%
Scored inContext
50%
50%
Clean sheetsContext
0%
14.60
ShotsContext
9.60
6.30
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.10
43%
On target shareContext
32%
10.70
Shots in the boxContext
6.50
72%
Box shareContext
68%
14%
ConversionContext
7%
2.33
OffsidesContext
1.00
8.60
Shots allowedContext
15.10
2.38
On target allowedVia Att/Def
6.30
3.20
BlocksContext
3.30
2.50
Goalkeeper savesContext
4.00
88%
Save rateContext
61%
59%
PossessionIn forecast
43%
493
PassesContext
323
424
Accurate passesContext
252
86%
Pass accuracyContext
78%
7.00
Team ratingContext
6.54
12.50
FoulsContext
14.10
13.80
Fouls sufferedContext
11.80
1.70
Yellow cardsContext
2.00
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.20
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
FC Porto
Rest7.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km506 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
AVS
Rest8.2 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel—0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| FC Porto |
AVS |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 7.1Primeira Liga 2025-2026, 22 Dec | 8.2Primeira Liga 2025-2026, 21 Dec |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | — |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 506 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 2 / 4 | 0 / 1 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 5.9 | 5 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context. Some venues have no coordinates yet.
Squad & lineups
FC Porto
Confirmed XI
99Diogo Costa(G)
74Francisco Moura
4J. Kiwior
5J. Bednarek
52Martim Fernandes
86Rodrigo Mora
13P. Rosario
8V. Froholdt
11Pepê
9Samu Omorodion
7William Gomes
AVS
Confirmed XI
93Simão(G)
12Leonardo Rivas
42C. Devenish
33Aderllan Santos
26Carlos Ponck
2Diogo Spencer
14Ó. Perea
8Pedro Lima
15Jaume Grau
11B. Akinsola
7Tómané
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences FC Porto
Absences are shown before kick-off
AVS
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- FC Porto+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- AVS+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
FC Porto · Home
2.71points per game · 7 home games
- W-D-L
- 6-1-0
- Scored
- 2.00
- Conceded
- 0.29
AVS · Away
0.14points per game · 7 away games
- W-D-L
- 0-1-6
- Scored
- 0.57
- Conceded
- 3.29
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 14 this season
| Opponent | FC Porto | AVS |
|---|---|---|
| Alverca | W 3–0 A | L 1–3 H |
| Estrela | W 3–1 H | L 0–3 A |
| Tondela | W 2–0 A | D 2–2 H |
| Estoril | W 1–0 H | L 1–3 A |
| Famalicao | W 1–0 A | L 0–1 H |
| SC Braga | W 2–1 H | D 2–2 A |
| Benfica | D 0–0 H | L 0–3 H |
| Arouca | W 4–0 A | L 1–3 A |
| Rio Ave | W 3–0 A | L 1–2 H |
| Nacional | W 1–0 H | D 2–2 H |
| Sporting CP | W 2–1 A | L 0–6 A |
| Casa Pia | W 4–0 H | L 0–2 H |
| GIL Vicente | W 2–0 A | D 1–1 H |
| Guimaraes | W 3–0 H | L 0–4 A |
| Points | 40 of 42 · 2.86 per game | 4 of 42 · 0.29 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 2 of 2 meetings
2 FC Porto wins0 draws0 AVS wins
Goals per game3.50 – 0.00
Over 2.550%
Both scored0%
Clean sheets100% · 0%
- 15 Mar 2025FC Porto2–0AVS
- 28 Oct 2024AVS0–5FC Porto
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| FC Porto | AVS | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.20 | 0.73 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.27 | 2.60 | |
| Match goals | 2.47 | 3.33 | 3.58 |
| Over 1.5 | 73% | 93% | |
| Over 2.5 | 60% | 73% | 69% |
| Over 3.5 | 20% | 53% | |
| Both teams scored | 27% | 53% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 73% | 0% | |
| Failed to score | 7% | 47% | |
| Games | 15 | 15 |
| FC Porto | AVS | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.00 | 0.70 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.50 | 2.80 | |
| Match goals | 2.50 | 3.50 | 3.58 |
| Over 1.5 | 80% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 60% | 80% | 69% |
| Over 3.5 | 10% | 50% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 50% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 0% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 50% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| FC Porto | AVS | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.07 | 3.92 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.00 | 5.69 | |
| Match total | 8.07 | 9.61 | 9.14 |
| Over 8.5 | 43% 6/14 | 69% 9/13 | |
| Over 9.5 | 29% 4/14 | 46% 6/13 | |
| Over 10.5 | 21% 3/14 | 46% 6/13 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.27 | 2.20 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.87 | 2.67 | |
| Match total | 5.14 | 4.87 | 5.47 |
| Over 3.5 | 80% 12/15 | 60% 9/15 | |
| Over 4.5 | 53% 8/15 | 60% 9/15 | |
| FC Porto | AVS | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.25 | 3.67 | |
| Corners conceded | 2.63 | 5.44 | |
| Match total | 6.88 | 9.11 | 9.14 |
| Over 8.5 | 25% 2/8 | 67% 6/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 0% 0/8 | 44% 4/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 0% 0/8 | 44% 4/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.70 | 2.30 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.90 | 2.30 | |
| Match total | 4.60 | 4.60 | 5.47 |
| Over 3.5 | 70% 7/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 40% 4/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Bruno Jose Ribeiro Pires Costa Portugal · 7 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.71league 5.14
Red cards0.29league 0.30
Cards 5+43%league 62%
Fouls26.1league 27.3
Penalties0.29league 0.44
Home wins57%league 36%
FC PortoNo previous matches with this referee.
AVS2 with this referee
Record0-0-2
Cards · opp.1.0 · 0.5
Pens for · against0 · 1
- L28 Nov 25A · Guimaraes0–41
- L20 Sep 25H · Benfica0–31
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
FC Porto15 games · scored 33 · conceded 4
5
0-15
5
1
16-30
6
31-45
7
2
46-60
6
1
61-75
4
76-90
AVS15 games · scored 11 · conceded 39
1
5
0-15
1
6
16-30
4
8
31-45
1
8
46-60
1
7
61-75
3
5
76-90
FC Porto10 games · scored 20 · conceded 5
2
0-15
3
1
16-30
5
31-45
3
3
46-60
5
61-75
2
1
76-90
AVS10 games · scored 7 · conceded 28
1
3
0-15
4
16-30
3
7
31-45
1
5
46-60
1
5
61-75
1
4
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
