FC Porto
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
FC Porto71.4%fair odds 1.40
Draw18.3%fair odds 5.46
Estoril10.3%fair odds 9.74
Expected goals2.27 – 0.75total 3.02
Likeliest score2–012.6%
Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.
Match Opportunity
How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.
Estoril
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
About this comparison
The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.
Score matrix
| FC Porto ↓ · Estoril → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.3 | 3.2 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 10.6 | 8.7 | 3.1 | 0.8 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 2 | 12.6 | 9.4 | 3.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 3 | 9.5 | 7.1 | 2.7 | 0.7 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 5.4 | 4.1 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 2.5 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 6+ | 1.3 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are FC Porto goals, columns Estoril goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.
Most likely scores
- 2–012.6%7.95
- 1–010.6%9.41
- 3–09.5%10.49
- 2–19.4%10.61
- 1–18.7%11.46
- 3–17.1%14.00
- 4–05.4%18.45
- 0–05.3%18.84
- 4–14.1%24.64
- 2–23.5%28.34
Winning margin
26.8%
FC Porto by 3+
fair 3.72
21.4%
FC Porto by 2
fair 4.67
23.1%
FC Porto by 1
fair 4.32
18.3%
Draw
fair 5.46
7.3%
Estoril by 1
fair 13.64
2.3%
Estoril by 2
fair 43.00
0.6%
Estoril by 3+
fair 162.24
Goal distribution
Total goals
5%0
14%1
23%2
22%3
17%4
19%5+
FC Porto goals
10%0
23%1
27%2
20%3
20%4+
Estoril goals
47%0
35%1
13%2
3%3
1%4+
LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda
| LOAD90 | EloLambda | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| FC Porto win | 71.4% | 71.7% | -0.3 pp |
| Draw | 18.3% | 18.0% | +0.3 pp |
| Estoril win | 10.3% | 10.3% | -0.0 pp |
| Over 2.5 | 58.2% | 59.7% | -1.5 pp |
| Both teams score | 47.7% | 48.9% | -1.2 pp |
| Expected goals FC Porto | 2.27 | 2.32 | -0.05 |
| Expected goals Estoril | 0.75 | 0.77 | -0.02 |
EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.
All markets model probability and fair odds
Result
- FC Porto win71.4%1.40
- Draw18.3%5.46
- Estoril win10.3%9.74
- Double chance FC Porto or draw89.7%1.11
- Double chance FC Porto or Estoril81.7%1.22
- Double chance Estoril or draw28.6%3.50
- Draw no bet FC Porto87.4%1.14
- Draw no bet Estoril12.6%7.95
Goals
- Over 0.594.7%1.06
- Over 1.580.9%1.24
- Over 2.558.2%1.72
- Over 3.535.8%2.80
- Over 4.518.8%5.31
- Under 1.519.1%5.22
- Under 2.541.8%2.39
- Under 3.564.2%1.56
Both teams to score
- Yes47.7%2.10
- No52.3%1.91
- Yes and over 2.539.0%2.56
- FC Porto win and yes29.4%3.40
- Draw and yes13.0%7.69
- Estoril win and yes5.3%18.93
Team goals
- FC Porto over 0.589.7%1.11
- FC Porto over 1.566.3%1.51
- FC Porto over 2.539.7%2.52
- Estoril over 0.552.7%1.90
- Estoril over 1.517.3%5.78
- Estoril over 2.54.0%24.78
- FC Porto clean sheet47.3%2.11
- Estoril clean sheet10.3%9.71
- FC Porto win to nil42.0%2.38
- Estoril win to nil5.0%20.05
Handicap
- FC Porto −1.548.3%2.07
- FC Porto −2.526.8%3.72
- Estoril +1.551.7%1.93
- Estoril +2.573.2%1.37
- Estoril −1.52.9%33.99
- FC Porto +1.597.1%1.03
Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.
Model track record Primeira Liga 2025-2026
All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.
Matches scored106
Favourite won55.7%
Avg chance given to result42.8%
1X2 Brier0.561
Over 2.5 called right64.2%
BTTS called right55.7%
Calibration · when the favourite was given…
| Favourite chance | Matches | Predicted | Actually won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40% | 16 | 37.5% | 31.3% |
| 40–50% | 38 | 45.0% | 47.4% |
| 50–60% | 24 | 54.0% | 58.3% |
| 60–70% | 13 | 66.2% | 84.6% |
| 70–80% | 13 | 75.3% | 69.2% |
| 80%+ | 2 | 83.4% | 100.0% |
LOAD90 vs Bookmaker
Compared on the same 77 of 106 scored matches.
| LOAD90 | Bookmaker | |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 Brier (lower is better) | 0.5620 | 0.5412 |
| Avg chance given to result | 42.7% | 45.0% |
| Favourite won | 55.8% | 57.1% |
Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off. Bookmaker identity is unavailable for 77 archived lines; these prices may come from different bookmakers.
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Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 106 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.