FC Porto
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
FC Porto were clear favourites.
FC Porto were the stronger side on L90 Strength (74 vs 29). FC Porto had 3.1 days of rest, Estoril 23 and had to travel 280 km.
Away travel280 kmRest days3.1 · 23Matches / 14d1 · 0
FC Porto71%
Draw18%
Estoril10%
FC Porto72%
Draw18%
Estoril10%
FC Porto71%
Draw18%
Estoril10%
FC Porto65%
Draw21%
Estoril14%
FC Porto72%
Draw18%
Estoril10%
Over 2.5 58%
Both score 48%
Likeliest score 2–0
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Porto)
No weather data yet
Referee · PortugalAndre Filipe Domingues Narciso
- Cards per match 6.0
- Penalties per match 0.33
- Matches 3
Team strength
FC Porto
Estoril
74
L90 StrengthIn forecast
29
80
Current StrengthIn forecast
22
74
AttackIn forecast
21
80
DefenceIn forecast
29
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisEstoril
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
FC PortoEstoril
2.18
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.73
0.27
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.55
1.75
xGVia Att/Def
1.19
0.45
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.41
+0.43
Goals minus xGContext
+0.54
91%
Scored inContext
73%
73%
Clean sheetsContext
9%
14.82
ShotsContext
12.91
5.64
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.09
38%
On target shareContext
32%
9.91
Shots in the boxContext
8.36
65%
Box shareContext
64%
15%
ConversionContext
13%
2.22
OffsidesContext
1.60
8.82
Shots allowedContext
11.27
1.78
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.90
3.45
BlocksContext
2.40
1.63
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.20
87%
Save rateContext
56%
54%
PossessionIn forecast
52%
431
PassesContext
400
366
Accurate passesContext
316
85%
Pass accuracyContext
79%
6.99
Team ratingContext
6.78
13.64
FoulsContext
12.36
11.64
Fouls sufferedContext
12.55
2.64
Yellow cardsContext
3.00
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.60
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.80
0.60
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.60
1.46
xGVia Att/Def
1.24
0.73
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.42
+0.14
Goals minus xGContext
+0.56
80%
Scored inContext
70%
50%
Clean sheetsContext
10%
13.30
ShotsContext
13.40
4.30
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.20
32%
On target shareContext
31%
8.80
Shots in the boxContext
8.70
65%
Box shareContext
64%
12%
ConversionContext
13%
2.11
OffsidesContext
1.67
8.80
Shots allowedContext
11.50
2.25
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.78
3.10
BlocksContext
2.56
1.57
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.00
65%
Save rateContext
53%
54%
PossessionIn forecast
51%
444
PassesContext
390
374
Accurate passesContext
306
84%
Pass accuracyContext
79%
6.87
Team ratingContext
6.77
12.20
FoulsContext
12.40
13.30
Fouls sufferedContext
12.40
2.60
Yellow cardsContext
2.90
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
FC Porto
Rest3.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load8%Low
Estoril
Rest23 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel280 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| FC Porto |
Estoril |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 8 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 3.1UEFA Europa League 2025-2026 - League phase, 27 Nov | 23Primeira Liga 2025-2026, 7 Nov |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 280 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 0 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 1 / 4 | 0 / 0 / 1 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 7 | 6.8 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
FC Porto
Confirmed XI
99Diogo Costa(G)
74Francisco Moura
4J. Kiwior
5J. Bednarek
20Alberto Baio
86Rodrigo Mora
13P. Rosario
8V. Froholdt
17Borja Sainz
9Samu Omorodion
7William Gomes
Estoril
Confirmed XI
1Joel Robles(G)
24Pedro Amaral
25F. Bacher
44K. Boma
2Ricard Sánchez
12João Carvalho
10J. Holsgrove
6Jandro Orellana
19André Lacximicant
14Y. Begraoui
99R. Guitane
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences FC Porto
Absences are shown before kick-off
Estoril
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- FC Porto+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Estoril+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
FC Porto · Home
2.60points per game · 5 home games
- W-D-L
- 4-1-0
- Scored
- 2.00
- Conceded
- 0.20
Estoril · Away
1.00points per game · 5 away games
- W-D-L
- 1-2-2
- Scored
- 2.00
- Conceded
- 1.80
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 7 this season
| Opponent | FC Porto | Estoril |
|---|---|---|
| Arouca | W 4–0 A | W 4–3 H |
| Rio Ave | W 3–0 A | W 4–0 A |
| Nacional | W 1–0 H | D 1–1 H |
| Sporting CP | W 2–1 A | L 0–1 H |
| Casa Pia | W 4–0 H | D 2–2 A |
| GIL Vicente | W 2–0 A | L 0–2 A |
| Guimaraes | W 3–0 H | L 2–3 A |
| Points | 21 of 21 · 3.00 per game | 8 of 21 · 1.14 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 6 of 6 meetings
3 FC Porto wins1 draws2 Estoril wins
Goals per game1.67 – 1.00
Over 2.550%
Both scored50%
Clean sheets17% · 33%
- 30 Mar 2025Estoril1–2FC Porto
- 3 Nov 2024FC Porto4–0Estoril
- 30 Mar 2024Estoril1–0FC Porto
- 3 Nov 2023FC Porto0–1Estoril
- 10 Mar 2023FC Porto3–2Estoril
- 17 Sep 2022Estoril1–1FC Porto
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| FC Porto | Estoril | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.18 | 1.73 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.27 | 1.55 | |
| Match goals | 2.45 | 3.27 | 3.02 |
| Over 1.5 | 73% | 82% | |
| Over 2.5 | 64% | 55% | 58% |
| Over 3.5 | 18% | 55% | |
| Both teams scored | 27% | 64% | 48% |
| Clean sheets | 73% | 9% | |
| Failed to score | 9% | 27% | |
| Games | 11 | 11 |
| FC Porto | Estoril | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.60 | 1.80 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.60 | 1.60 | |
| Match goals | 2.20 | 3.40 | 3.02 |
| Over 1.5 | 70% | 80% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 60% | 58% |
| Over 3.5 | 10% | 60% | |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 60% | 48% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 10% | |
| Failed to score | 20% | 30% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| FC Porto | Estoril | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.55 | 4.67 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.00 | 5.00 | |
| Match total | 8.55 | 9.67 | 9.15 |
| Over 8.5 | 55% 6/11 | 56% 5/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 36% 4/11 | 56% 5/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 27% 3/11 | 56% 5/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.73 | 3.00 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.91 | 2.09 | |
| Match total | 5.64 | 5.09 | 5.46 |
| Over 3.5 | 91% 10/11 | 91% 10/11 | |
| Over 4.5 | 64% 7/11 | 64% 7/11 | |
| FC Porto | Estoril | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.60 | 4.75 | |
| Corners conceded | 2.70 | 5.13 | |
| Match total | 8.30 | 9.88 | 9.15 |
| Over 8.5 | 50% 5/10 | 63% 5/8 | |
| Over 9.5 | 30% 3/10 | 63% 5/8 | |
| Over 10.5 | 20% 2/10 | 63% 5/8 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.70 | 2.90 | |
| Opponent cards | 3.10 | 2.20 | |
| Match total | 5.80 | 5.10 | 5.46 |
| Over 3.5 | 100% 10/10 | 90% 9/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 70% 7/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Andre Filipe Domingues Narciso Portugal · 3 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards5.67league 5.15
Red cards0.33league 0.27
Cards 5+67%league 65%
Fouls31.7league 27.5
Penalties0.33league 0.49
Home wins67%league 35%
FC PortoNo previous matches with this referee.
EstorilNo previous matches with this referee.
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
FC Porto11 games · scored 24 · conceded 3
4
0-15
3
1
16-30
6
31-45
4
1
46-60
3
1
61-75
4
76-90
Estoril11 games · scored 19 · conceded 17
3
3
0-15
2
1
16-30
5
4
31-45
3
2
46-60
3
4
61-75
3
3
76-90
FC Porto10 games · scored 16 · conceded 6
3
0-15
2
16-30
4
1
31-45
2
2
46-60
2
61-75
5
1
76-90
Estoril10 games · scored 18 · conceded 16
3
3
0-15
2
1
16-30
4
4
31-45
3
2
46-60
3
3
61-75
3
3
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
