FC Porto
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
FC Porto79.7%fair odds 1.26
Draw14.0%fair odds 7.15
Estrela6.3%fair odds 15.78
Expected goals2.65 – 0.64total 3.29
Likeliest score2–013.1%
Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.
Match Opportunity
How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.
Estrela
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
About this comparison
The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.
Score matrix
| FC Porto ↓ · Estrela → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.1 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 9.5 | 6.7 | 2.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 2 | 13.1 | 8.4 | 2.7 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 3 | 11.5 | 7.4 | 2.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 7.6 | 4.9 | 1.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 4.0 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 6+ | 2.8 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are FC Porto goals, columns Estrela goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.
Most likely scores
- 2–013.1%7.65
- 3–011.5%8.66
- 1–09.5%10.48
- 2–18.4%11.93
- 4–07.6%13.09
- 3–17.4%13.52
- 1–16.7%15.00
- 4–14.9%20.42
- 0–04.1%24.60
- 5–04.0%24.72
Winning margin
36.8%
FC Porto by 3+
fair 2.72
22.2%
FC Porto by 2
fair 4.50
20.7%
FC Porto by 1
fair 4.84
14.0%
Draw
fair 7.15
4.7%
Estrela by 1
fair 21.07
1.3%
Estrela by 2
fair 76.74
0.3%
Estrela by 3+
fair 347.65
Goal distribution
Total goals
4%0
12%1
21%2
22%3
18%4
24%5+
FC Porto goals
7%0
19%1
25%2
22%3
27%4+
Estrela goals
53%0
34%1
11%2
2%3
0%4+
LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda
| LOAD90 | EloLambda | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| FC Porto win | 79.7% | 79.9% | -0.2 pp |
| Draw | 14.0% | 13.7% | +0.3 pp |
| Estrela win | 6.3% | 6.4% | -0.0 pp |
| Over 2.5 | 63.8% | 65.3% | -1.5 pp |
| Both teams score | 44.3% | 45.5% | -1.2 pp |
| Expected goals FC Porto | 2.65 | 2.70 | -0.05 |
| Expected goals Estrela | 0.64 | 0.66 | -0.02 |
EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.
All markets model probability and fair odds
Result
- FC Porto win79.7%1.26
- Draw14.0%7.15
- Estrela win6.3%15.78
- Double chance FC Porto or draw93.7%1.07
- Double chance FC Porto or Estrela86.0%1.16
- Double chance Estrela or draw20.3%4.92
- Draw no bet FC Porto92.6%1.08
- Draw no bet Estrela7.4%13.57
Goals
- Over 0.595.9%1.04
- Over 1.584.3%1.19
- Over 2.563.8%1.57
- Over 3.541.7%2.40
- Over 4.523.5%4.25
- Under 1.515.7%6.38
- Under 2.536.2%2.76
- Under 3.558.3%1.72
Both teams to score
- Yes44.3%2.26
- No55.7%1.80
- Yes and over 2.537.6%2.66
- FC Porto win and yes31.1%3.22
- Draw and yes9.9%10.08
- Estrela win and yes3.3%30.10
Team goals
- FC Porto over 0.592.9%1.08
- FC Porto over 1.574.2%1.35
- FC Porto over 2.549.3%2.03
- Estrela over 0.547.3%2.11
- Estrela over 1.513.6%7.38
- Estrela over 2.52.7%36.55
- FC Porto clean sheet52.7%1.90
- Estrela clean sheet7.1%14.12
- FC Porto win to nil48.6%2.06
- Estrela win to nil3.0%33.16
Handicap
- FC Porto −1.559.0%1.69
- FC Porto −2.536.8%2.72
- Estrela +1.541.0%2.44
- Estrela +2.563.2%1.58
- Estrela −1.51.6%62.87
- FC Porto +1.598.4%1.02
Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.
Model track record Primeira Liga 2025-2026
All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.
Matches scored125
Favourite won59.2%
Avg chance given to result43.5%
1X2 Brier0.545
Over 2.5 called right62.4%
BTTS called right55.2%
Calibration · when the favourite was given…
| Favourite chance | Matches | Predicted | Actually won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40% | 21 | 37.7% | 38.1% |
| 40–50% | 46 | 45.0% | 52.2% |
| 50–60% | 26 | 54.1% | 61.5% |
| 60–70% | 15 | 66.3% | 86.7% |
| 70–80% | 14 | 75.1% | 71.4% |
| 80%+ | 3 | 85.2% | 100.0% |
LOAD90 vs Bookmaker
Compared on the same 96 of 125 scored matches.
| LOAD90 | Bookmaker | |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 Brier (lower is better) | 0.5415 | 0.5190 |
| Avg chance given to result | 43.7% | 45.9% |
| Favourite won | 60.4% | 60.4% |
Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off. Bookmaker identity is unavailable for 96 archived lines; these prices may come from different bookmakers.
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Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 125 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.