FC Porto
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
FC Porto were clear favourites.
FC Porto were the stronger side on L90 Strength (75 vs 19). FC Porto had 4 days of rest, Estrela 8.1 and had to travel 271 km.
Away travel271 kmRest days4 · 8.1Matches / 14d2 · 1
FC Porto80%
Draw14%
Estrela6%
FC Porto80%
Draw14%
Estrela6%
FC Porto80%
Draw14%
Estrela6%
FC Porto74%
Draw17%
Estrela9%
FC Porto80%
Draw14%
Estrela6%
Over 2.5 64%
Both score 44%
Likeliest score 2–0
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Porto)
No weather data yet
Referee · PortugalMiguel Andre Monteiro Fonseca
- Cards per match 5.0
- Penalties per match 0.33
- Matches 3
Team strength
FC Porto
Estrela
75
L90 StrengthIn forecast
19
80
Current StrengthIn forecast
20
74
AttackIn forecast
24
80
DefenceIn forecast
27
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisEstrela
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
FC PortoEstrela
2.08
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.23
0.23
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.46
1.75
xGVia Att/Def
1.42
0.50
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.29
+0.33
Goals minus xGContext
-0.19
92%
Scored inContext
54%
77%
Clean sheetsContext
23%
14.31
ShotsContext
12.08
5.69
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.17
40%
On target shareContext
32%
9.85
Shots in the boxContext
6.31
68%
Box shareContext
49%
15%
ConversionContext
10%
2.27
OffsidesContext
2.00
9.15
Shots allowedContext
11.85
1.82
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.85
3.46
BlocksContext
3.31
1.70
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.91
90%
Save rateContext
70%
55%
PossessionIn forecast
50%
447
PassesContext
351
380
Accurate passesContext
284
85%
Pass accuracyContext
81%
6.98
Team ratingContext
6.82
13.38
FoulsContext
13.15
11.31
Fouls sufferedContext
15.92
2.38
Yellow cardsContext
2.31
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.08
1.40
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.30
0.60
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.50
1.38
xGVia Att/Def
1.33
0.72
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.28
+0.02
Goals minus xGContext
-0.03
80%
Scored inContext
50%
50%
Clean sheetsContext
30%
12.90
ShotsContext
11.40
5.40
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.11
42%
On target shareContext
33%
9.00
Shots in the boxContext
6.10
69%
Box shareContext
50%
11%
ConversionContext
11%
2.38
OffsidesContext
2.00
8.40
Shots allowedContext
12.90
2.13
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.30
3.20
BlocksContext
3.40
1.71
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.00
75%
Save rateContext
66%
56%
PossessionIn forecast
52%
475
PassesContext
374
404
Accurate passesContext
307
85%
Pass accuracyContext
82%
6.89
Team ratingContext
6.82
13.20
FoulsContext
12.70
13.30
Fouls sufferedContext
15.00
2.20
Yellow cardsContext
2.20
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
FC Porto
Rest4 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km166 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Estrela
Rest8.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel271 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| FC Porto |
Estrela |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 4UEFA Europa League 2025-2026 - League phase, 11 Dec | 8.1Primeira Liga 2025-2026, 7 Dec |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 271 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 166 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 4 | 0 / 1 / 2 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 6.9 | 5 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
FC Porto
Confirmed XI
99Diogo Costa(G)
74Francisco Moura
4J. Kiwior
5J. Bednarek
20Alberto Baio
86Rodrigo Mora
22A. Varela
8V. Froholdt
17Borja Sainz
9Samu Omorodion
11Pepê
Estrela
Confirmed XI
40Renan Ribeiro(G)
83Otávio
14Bernardo Schappo
30Luan Patrick
10I. Stoica
6Oumar Ngom
19Paulo Moreira
55Sidny Lopes Cabral
63A. Sola
98Kikas
99A. Marcus
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences FC Porto
Absences are shown before kick-off
Estrela
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- FC Porto+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Estrela+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
FC Porto · Home
2.67points per game · 6 home games
- W-D-L
- 5-1-0
- Scored
- 1.83
- Conceded
- 0.17
Estrela · Away
1.00points per game · 6 away games
- W-D-L
- 1-3-2
- Scored
- 1.00
- Conceded
- 1.67
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 10 this season
| Opponent | FC Porto | Estrela |
|---|---|---|
| Tondela | W 2–0 A | D 0–0 A |
| Estoril | W 1–0 H | D 1–1 A |
| Benfica | D 0–0 H | L 0–1 H |
| Arouca | W 4–0 A | W 3–1 H |
| Rio Ave | W 3–0 A | L 1–2 H |
| Nacional | W 1–0 H | D 1–1 H |
| Sporting CP | W 2–1 A | L 0–4 A |
| Casa Pia | W 4–0 H | W 5–3 A |
| GIL Vicente | W 2–0 A | L 0–2 A |
| Guimaraes | W 3–0 H | L 0–2 H |
| Points | 28 of 30 · 2.80 per game | 9 of 30 · 0.90 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 4 of 4 meetings
3 FC Porto wins0 draws1 Estrela wins
Goals per game1.25 – 0.50
Over 2.50%
Both scored0%
Clean sheets75% · 25%
- 26 Apr 2025Estrela2–0FC Porto
- 16 Dec 2024FC Porto2–0Estrela
- 17 Feb 2024FC Porto2–0Estrela
- 15 Sep 2023Estrela0–1FC Porto
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| FC Porto | Estrela | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.08 | 1.23 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.23 | 1.46 | |
| Match goals | 2.31 | 2.69 | 3.29 |
| Over 1.5 | 69% | 77% | |
| Over 2.5 | 54% | 46% | 64% |
| Over 3.5 | 15% | 31% | |
| Both teams scored | 23% | 46% | 44% |
| Clean sheets | 77% | 23% | |
| Failed to score | 8% | 46% | |
| Games | 13 | 13 |
| FC Porto | Estrela | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.40 | 1.30 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.60 | 1.50 | |
| Match goals | 2.00 | 2.80 | 3.29 |
| Over 1.5 | 70% | 80% | |
| Over 2.5 | 40% | 50% | 64% |
| Over 3.5 | 0% | 30% | |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 40% | 44% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 30% | |
| Failed to score | 20% | 50% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| FC Porto | Estrela | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.38 | 4.18 | |
| Corners conceded | 2.92 | 4.00 | |
| Match total | 8.30 | 8.18 | 9.18 |
| Over 8.5 | 46% 6/13 | 36% 4/11 | |
| Over 9.5 | 31% 4/13 | 18% 2/11 | |
| Over 10.5 | 23% 3/13 | 18% 2/11 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.46 | 2.46 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.85 | 3.23 | |
| Match total | 5.31 | 5.69 | 5.54 |
| Over 3.5 | 85% 11/13 | 85% 11/13 | |
| Over 4.5 | 54% 7/13 | 77% 10/13 | |
| FC Porto | Estrela | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.89 | 3.88 | |
| Corners conceded | 2.56 | 4.38 | |
| Match total | 7.45 | 8.26 | 9.18 |
| Over 8.5 | 33% 3/9 | 38% 3/8 | |
| Over 9.5 | 11% 1/9 | 25% 2/8 | |
| Over 10.5 | 11% 1/9 | 25% 2/8 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.20 | 2.30 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.70 | 3.00 | |
| Match total | 4.90 | 5.30 | 5.54 |
| Over 3.5 | 80% 8/10 | 80% 8/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 40% 4/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Miguel Andre Monteiro Fonseca Portugal · 3 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards5.00league 5.18
Red cards0.00league 0.30
Cards 5+67%league 62%
Fouls23.0league 27.5
Penalties0.33league 0.46
Home wins0%league 37%
FC PortoNo previous matches with this referee.
EstrelaNo previous matches with this referee.
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
FC Porto13 games · scored 27 · conceded 3
5
0-15
3
1
16-30
6
31-45
6
1
46-60
3
1
61-75
4
76-90
Estrela12 games · scored 11 · conceded 16
2
0-15
4
1
16-30
3
7
31-45
4
46-60
3
1
61-75
1
1
76-90
FC Porto10 games · scored 14 · conceded 6
2
0-15
1
2
16-30
5
31-45
2
2
46-60
2
61-75
2
2
76-90
Estrela9 games · scored 8 · conceded 12
2
0-15
4
1
16-30
2
4
31-45
3
46-60
1
1
61-75
1
1
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
