FC Porto
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
FC Porto were clear favourites.
FC Porto were the stronger side on L90 Strength (78 vs 44). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for Rangers. FC Porto had 3 days of rest, Rangers 7 and had to travel 1,667 km.
Away travel1,667 kmRest days3 · 7Matches / 14d3 · 1
FC Porto68%
Draw19%
Rangers14%
FC Porto66%
Draw21%
Rangers14%
FC Porto67%
Draw19%
Rangers14%
FC Porto60%
Draw22%
Rangers18%
FC Porto66%
Draw20%
Rangers14%
Over 2.5 65%
Both score 57%
Likeliest score 2–0
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Porto)
No weather data yet
RefereeJasper Vergoote
- Cards per match 4.2
- Penalties per match 0.48
- Matches 42
Team strength
FC Porto
Rangers
78
L90 StrengthIn forecast
44
80
Current StrengthIn forecast
40
74
AttackIn forecast
38
80
DefenceIn forecast
34
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisRangers
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
FC PortoRangers
1.43
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.57
0.86
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.57
1.64
xGVia Att/Def
1.33
0.87
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.91
-0.21
Goals minus xGContext
-0.76
86%
Scored inContext
57%
29%
Clean sheetsContext
14%
15.00
ShotsContext
11.00
5.43
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.29
36%
On target shareContext
39%
9.86
Shots in the boxContext
8.29
66%
Box shareContext
75%
10%
ConversionContext
5%
1.80
OffsidesContext
1.50
9.29
Shots allowedContext
13.57
2.50
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.71
3.00
BlocksContext
4.43
1.50
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.29
60%
Save rateContext
70%
59%
PossessionIn forecast
49%
485
PassesContext
401
415
Accurate passesContext
332
86%
Pass accuracyContext
83%
6.88
Team ratingContext
6.79
11.57
FoulsContext
13.14
12.86
Fouls sufferedContext
15.29
2.29
Yellow cardsContext
1.71
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.14
1.90
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.70
0.30
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.60
2.00
xGVia Att/Def
—
0.58
xG allowedVia Att/Def
—
-0.10
Goals minus xGContext
—
100%
Scored inContext
100%
70%
Clean sheetsContext
60%
14.80
ShotsContext
15.80
6.20
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
6.40
42%
On target shareContext
41%
10.50
Shots in the boxContext
11.10
70%
Box shareContext
71%
13%
ConversionContext
11%
2.13
OffsidesContext
1.89
10.10
Shots allowedContext
10.80
2.56
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.20
3.50
BlocksContext
3.22
2.63
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.40
96%
Save rateContext
81%
61%
PossessionIn forecast
51%
486
PassesContext
423
416
Accurate passesContext
349
86%
Pass accuracyContext
83%
7.01
Team ratingContext
7.12
12.60
FoulsContext
12.50
12.20
Fouls sufferedContext
13.10
1.60
Yellow cardsContext
2.00
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
FC Porto
Rest3 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d3all competitions
Travel0 km3,971 km in 14d
Schedule load33%Moderate
Rangers
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel1,667 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load20%Moderate
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| FC Porto |
Rangers |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Moderate · 33 | Moderate · 20 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 3Primeira Liga 2025-2026, 26 Jan | 7UEFA Europa League 2025-2026 - League phase, 22 Jan |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 1,667 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 3,971 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 3 / 4 | 1 / 1 / 1 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 4 | 188.8 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
FC Porto
Confirmed XI
99Diogo Costa(G)
74Francisco Moura
4J. Kiwior
5J. Bednarek
20Alberto Baio
86Rodrigo Mora
22A. Varela
8V. Froholdt
11Pepê
9Samu Omorodion
7William Gomes
Rangers
Confirmed XI
1J. Butland(G)
24Y. Djiga
37E. Fernandez
2J. Tavernier
30J. Meghoma
10M. Diomande
43N. Raskin
3M. Aarons
23D. Gassama
52F. Curtis
9Youssef Chermiti
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences FC Porto
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.04 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Rangers
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.07 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- FC Porto+0.6 pp
- Draw-0.5 pp
- Rangers-0.1 pp
Home / Away this season
FC Porto · Home
3.00points per game · 3 home games
- W-D-L
- 3-0-0
- Scored
- 2.33
- Conceded
- 0.67
Rangers · Away
0.00points per game · 3 away games
- W-D-L
- 0-0-3
- Scored
- 0.67
- Conceded
- 2.33
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Head to head
No earlier meetings in our data.
Goals & match trends
| FC Porto | Rangers | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.43 | 0.57 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.86 | 1.57 | |
| Match goals | 2.29 | 2.14 | 3.33 |
| Over 1.5 | 86% | 71% | |
| Over 2.5 | 43% | 43% | 65% |
| Over 3.5 | 0% | 0% | |
| Both teams scored | 57% | 43% | 57% |
| Clean sheets | 29% | 14% | |
| Failed to score | 14% | 43% | |
| Games | 7 | 7 |
| FC Porto | Rangers | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.90 | 0.57 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.30 | 1.57 | |
| Match goals | 2.20 | 2.14 | 3.33 |
| Over 1.5 | 70% | 71% | |
| Over 2.5 | 40% | 43% | 65% |
| Over 3.5 | 10% | 0% | |
| Both teams scored | 30% | 43% | 57% |
| Clean sheets | 70% | 14% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 43% | |
| Games | 10 | 7 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| FC Porto | Rangers | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 6.50 | 4.86 | |
| Corners conceded | 2.50 | 3.29 | |
| Match total | 9.00 | 8.15 | 9.07 |
| Over 8.5 | 67% 4/6 | 43% 3/7 | |
| Over 9.5 | 33% 2/6 | 43% 3/7 | |
| Over 10.5 | 17% 1/6 | 0% 0/7 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.29 | 2.00 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.71 | 1.71 | |
| Match total | 5.00 | 3.71 | 4.35 |
| Over 3.5 | 86% 6/7 | 43% 3/7 | |
| Over 4.5 | 57% 4/7 | 43% 3/7 | |
| FC Porto | Rangers | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.14 | 6.00 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.14 | 3.80 | |
| Match total | 8.28 | 9.80 | 9.07 |
| Over 8.5 | 43% 3/7 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 14% 1/7 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 14% 1/7 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.60 | 2.00 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.60 | 1.40 | |
| Match total | 4.20 | 3.40 | 4.35 |
| Over 3.5 | 60% 6/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 50% 5/10 | 20% 2/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Jasper Vergoote 42 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.88league 4.13
Red cards0.29league 0.21
Cards 5+33%league 42%
Fouls23.3league 24.2
Penalties0.48league 0.36
Home wins55%league 51%
FC PortoNo previous matches with this referee.
RangersNo previous matches with this referee.
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
FC Porto7 games · scored 10 · conceded 6
2
1
0-15
1
1
16-30
2
1
31-45
1
46-60
2
61-75
3
2
76-90
Rangers7 games · scored 4 · conceded 11
2
0-15
1
16-30
2
4
31-45
1
2
46-60
2
61-75
1
76-90
FC Porto10 games · scored 19 · conceded 3
1
1
0-15
3
16-30
2
31-45
5
1
46-60
5
61-75
3
1
76-90
Rangers10 games · scored 17 · conceded 6
1
0-15
2
1
16-30
4
3
31-45
4
46-60
3
1
61-75
3
1
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
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