FC Porto
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
It was too close to call.
Sporting CP were the stronger side on L90 Strength (84 vs 76). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for FC Porto. FC Porto had 7 days of rest, Sporting CP 8.1 and had to travel 273 km.
Away travel273 kmRest days7 · 8.1Matches / 14d2 · 1
FC Porto39%
Draw28%
Sporting CP32%
FC Porto37%
Draw27%
Sporting CP36%
FC Porto39%
Draw28%
Sporting CP32%
FC Porto33%
Draw28%
Sporting CP39%
FC Porto39%
Draw28%
Sporting CP32%
Over 2.5 45%
Both score 51%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Porto)
No weather data yet
Referee · PortugalLuís Godinho
- Cards per match 5.2
- Penalties per match 0.30
- Matches 81
Team strength
FC Porto
Sporting CP
76
L90 StrengthIn forecast
84
80
Current StrengthIn forecast
83
74
AttackIn forecast
75
80
DefenceIn forecast
81
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisSporting CP
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
FC PortoSporting CP
2.05
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.70
0.30
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.55
1.84
xGVia Att/Def
2.16
0.55
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.67
+0.21
Goals minus xGContext
+0.54
95%
Scored inContext
100%
75%
Clean sheetsContext
50%
14.30
ShotsContext
18.30
5.55
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
7.10
39%
On target shareContext
39%
9.90
Shots in the boxContext
12.20
68%
Box shareContext
66%
14%
ConversionContext
15%
2.22
OffsidesContext
1.86
9.40
Shots allowedContext
8.25
2.24
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.22
3.50
BlocksContext
2.47
2.13
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.71
89%
Save rateContext
81%
57%
PossessionIn forecast
62%
459
PassesContext
529
392
Accurate passesContext
463
85%
Pass accuracyContext
88%
6.99
Team ratingContext
7.11
13.35
FoulsContext
12.35
11.85
Fouls sufferedContext
13.15
2.20
Yellow cardsContext
2.20
0.05
Red cardsContext
0.15
2.00
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.80
0.60
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.00
2.03
xGVia Att/Def
1.68
0.57
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.90
-0.03
Goals minus xGContext
+1.12
100%
Scored inContext
100%
50%
Clean sheetsContext
30%
15.10
ShotsContext
14.40
5.90
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
6.67
39%
On target shareContext
42%
10.20
Shots in the boxContext
10.44
65%
Box shareContext
67%
13%
ConversionContext
19%
2.25
OffsidesContext
1.57
8.90
Shots allowedContext
12.90
2.67
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.89
3.10
BlocksContext
4.22
2.38
Goalkeeper savesContext
4.25
83%
Save rateContext
81%
60%
PossessionIn forecast
56%
467
PassesContext
483
401
Accurate passesContext
422
86%
Pass accuracyContext
88%
6.96
Team ratingContext
6.98
13.00
FoulsContext
10.80
13.00
Fouls sufferedContext
12.70
1.60
Yellow cardsContext
2.30
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.20
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
FC Porto
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km407 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Sporting CP
Rest8.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel273 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| FC Porto |
Sporting CP |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 7Primeira Liga 2025-2026, 2 Feb | 8.1Primeira Liga 2025-2026, 1 Feb |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 273 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 407 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 5 | 0 / 1 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 5.8 | 6 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
FC Porto
Confirmed XI
99Diogo Costa(G)
52Martim Fernandes
4J. Kiwior
5J. Bednarek
20Alberto Baio
10Gabri Veiga
22A. Varela
8V. Froholdt
17Borja Sainz
9Samu Omorodion
11Pepê
Sporting CP
Confirmed XI
1Rui Silva(G)
20M. Araújo
25G. Inácio
26O. Diomande
22Iván Fresneda
5H. Morita
42M. Hjulmand
17Trincão
8Pote
10Geny Catamo
97L. Suárez
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences FC Porto
Absences are shown before kick-off
Sporting CP
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- FC Porto+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Sporting CP+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
FC Porto · Home
2.78points per game · 9 home games
- W-D-L
- 8-1-0
- Scored
- 2.11
- Conceded
- 0.22
Sporting CP · Away
2.60points per game · 10 away games
- W-D-L
- 8-2-0
- Scored
- 2.20
- Conceded
- 0.70
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 16 this season
| Opponent | FC Porto | Sporting CP |
|---|---|---|
| Casa Pia | L 1–2 AW 4–0 H | W 3–0 HW 2–0 A |
| GIL Vicente | W 3–0 HW 2–0 A | D 1–1 A |
| Guimaraes | W 1–0 AW 3–0 H | W 4–1 A |
| Santa Clara | W 1–0 A | W 2–1 A |
| AVS | W 2–0 H | W 6–0 H |
| Alverca | W 3–0 A | W 2–0 H |
| Estrela | W 3–1 H | W 4–0 H |
| Tondela | W 2–0 A | W 3–0 A |
| Estoril | W 1–0 H | W 1–0 A |
| Famalicao | W 1–0 A | W 2–1 A |
| SC Braga | W 2–1 H | D 1–1 H |
| Moreirense | W 2–1 A | W 3–0 H |
| Benfica | D 0–0 H | D 1–1 A |
| Arouca | W 4–0 A | W 2–1 AW 6–0 H |
| Rio Ave | W 3–0 A | W 4–0 H |
| Nacional | W 1–0 H | W 2–1 HW 4–1 A |
| Points | 52 of 57 · 2.74 per game | 51 of 57 · 2.68 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 7 of 7 meetings
3 FC Porto wins2 draws2 Sporting CP wins
Goals per game1.43 – 1.29
Over 2.557%
Both scored57%
Clean sheets14% · 29%
- 30 Aug 2025Sporting CP1–2FC Porto
- 7 Feb 2025FC Porto1–1Sporting CP
- 31 Aug 2024Sporting CP2–0FC Porto
- 28 Apr 2024FC Porto2–2Sporting CP
- 18 Dec 2023Sporting CP2–0FC Porto
- 12 Feb 2023Sporting CP1–2FC Porto
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| FC Porto | Sporting CP | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.05 | 2.70 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.30 | 0.55 | |
| Match goals | 2.35 | 3.25 | 2.49 |
| Over 1.5 | 70% | 95% | |
| Over 2.5 | 55% | 70% | 45% |
| Over 3.5 | 15% | 30% | |
| Both teams scored | 25% | 50% | 51% |
| Clean sheets | 75% | 50% | |
| Failed to score | 5% | 0% | |
| Games | 20 | 20 |
| FC Porto | Sporting CP | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.00 | 2.90 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.60 | 0.60 | |
| Match goals | 2.60 | 3.50 | 2.49 |
| Over 1.5 | 80% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 60% | 80% | 45% |
| Over 3.5 | 20% | 40% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 60% | 51% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 40% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 0% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| FC Porto | Sporting CP | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.29 | 6.41 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.12 | 3.18 | |
| Match total | 8.41 | 9.59 | 9.13 |
| Over 8.5 | 47% 8/17 | 71% 12/17 | |
| Over 9.5 | 29% 5/17 | 53% 9/17 | |
| Over 10.5 | 24% 4/17 | 29% 5/17 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.30 | 2.35 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.80 | 3.05 | |
| Match total | 5.10 | 5.40 | 5.24 |
| Over 3.5 | 80% 16/20 | 60% 12/20 | |
| Over 4.5 | 60% 12/20 | 55% 11/20 | |
| FC Porto | Sporting CP | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.17 | 5.44 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.33 | 4.44 | |
| Match total | 8.50 | 9.88 | 9.13 |
| Over 8.5 | 50% 3/6 | 78% 7/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 17% 1/6 | 56% 5/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 17% 1/6 | 44% 4/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.70 | 2.50 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.50 | 2.70 | |
| Match total | 4.20 | 5.20 | 5.24 |
| Over 3.5 | 60% 6/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 60% 6/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Luís Godinho Portugal · 81 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.99league 4.90
Red cards0.23league 0.28
Cards 5+60%league 59%
Fouls28.8league 27.0
Penalties0.30league 0.45
Home wins40%league 41%
FC Porto9 with this referee
Record5-2-2
Cards · opp.2.6 · 3.8
Pens for · against2 · 2
- W7 Dec 25A · Tondela2–01
- W13 Sep 25H · Nacional1–02
- L8 Mar 25A · SC Braga0–14
- D7 Dec 24A · Famalicao1–13
- L31 Aug 24A · Sporting CP0–25
Sporting CP10 with this referee
Record8-2-0
Cards · opp.2.5 · 3.1
Pens for · against5 · 0
- W27 Sep 25A · Estoril1–02
- D7 Apr 25H · SC Braga1–13
- W18 Jan 25A · Rio Ave3–01
- W10 Nov 24A · SC Braga4–24
- W31 Aug 24H · FC Porto2–01
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
FC Porto20 games · scored 41 · conceded 6
5
1
0-15
5
1
16-30
7
1
31-45
10
2
46-60
8
1
61-75
6
76-90
Sporting CP20 games · scored 54 · conceded 11
4
2
0-15
5
2
16-30
14
31-45
8
2
46-60
9
2
61-75
14
3
76-90
FC Porto10 games · scored 20 · conceded 6
3
0-15
4
16-30
4
1
31-45
4
1
46-60
5
61-75
3
1
76-90
Sporting CP10 games · scored 28 · conceded 10
1
1
0-15
1
16-30
10
31-45
5
2
46-60
5
2
61-75
7
4
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
