FC St. Pauli
Attack—
Defense risk—
FC St. Pauli
16th · 7 pts · 10 played
LLLLL
0–1Full time
Union Berlin
12th · 12 pts · 10 played
LWLDD
Our take
Union Berlin were slight favourites.
Union Berlin were the stronger side on L90 Strength (43 vs 24). FC St. Pauli usually keep the ball (49% on average), which points to more chances at both ends. FC St. Pauli had 14.1 days of rest, Union Berlin 15.1 and had to travel 255 km.
Away travel255 kmRest days14.1 · 15.1Matches / 14d0 · 0
FC St. Pauli32%
Draw27%
Union Berlin41%
FC St. Pauli32%
Draw27%
Union Berlin41%
FC St. Pauli33%
Draw27%
Union Berlin41%
FC St. Pauli26%
Draw26%
Union Berlin48%
FC St. Pauli31%
Draw27%
Union Berlin42%
Over 2.5 52%
Both score 56%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Hamburg)
No weather data yet
Referee · GermanyTobias Stieler
- Cards per match 3.9
- Penalties per match 0.32
- Matches 92
Team strength
FC St. PauliUnion Berlin
24
L90 StrengthIn forecast
43
24
Current StrengthIn forecast
39
20
AttackIn forecast
42
23
DefenceIn forecast
41
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisUnion Berlin
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
FC St. PauliUnion Berlin
0.90
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.30
2.00
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.70
0.89
xGVia Att/Def
1.16
1.37
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.58
+0.01
Goals minus xGContext
+0.14
50%
Scored inContext
50%
10%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
11.20
ShotsContext
11.90
3.90
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.50
35%
On target shareContext
29%
6.10
Shots in the boxContext
8.20
54%
Box shareContext
69%
8%
ConversionContext
11%
2.88
OffsidesContext
1.89
10.50
Shots allowedContext
14.10
5.60
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.10
3.29
BlocksContext
4.33
3.70
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.50
66%
Save rateContext
69%
51%
PossessionIn forecast
33%
482
PassesContext
272
393
Accurate passesContext
191
82%
Pass accuracyContext
70%
6.68
Team ratingContext
6.76
11.30
FoulsContext
13.40
11.10
Fouls sufferedContext
11.00
1.80
Yellow cardsContext
2.70
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.10
0.90
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.30
2.00
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.70
0.89
xGVia Att/Def
1.16
1.37
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.58
+0.01
Goals minus xGContext
+0.14
50%
Scored inContext
50%
10%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
11.20
ShotsContext
11.90
3.90
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.50
35%
On target shareContext
29%
6.10
Shots in the boxContext
8.20
54%
Box shareContext
69%
8%
ConversionContext
11%
2.88
OffsidesContext
1.89
10.50
Shots allowedContext
14.10
5.60
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.10
3.29
BlocksContext
4.33
3.70
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.50
66%
Save rateContext
69%
51%
PossessionIn forecast
33%
482
PassesContext
272
393
Accurate passesContext
191
82%
Pass accuracyContext
70%
6.68
Team ratingContext
6.76
11.30
FoulsContext
13.40
11.10
Fouls sufferedContext
11.00
1.80
Yellow cardsContext
2.70
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
FC St. Pauli
Rest14.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Union Berlin
Rest15.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel255 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| FC St. Pauli |
Union Berlin |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 14.1Bundesliga 2025-2026, 9 Nov | 15.1Bundesliga 2025-2026, 8 Nov |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 255 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 0 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 0 / 2 | 0 / 0 / 2 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 5.9 | 5.9 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
FC St. Pauli
Confirmed XI
22N. Vasilj(G)
3K. Mets
8E. Smith
5H. Wahl
23Louis Oppie
7J. Irvine
6J. Sands
16J. Fujita
11Arkadiusz Pyrka
28M. Pereira Lage
27A. Hountondji
Union Berlin
Confirmed XI
1F. Rønnow(G)
4Diogo Leite
14L. Querfeld
5D. Doekhi
15T. Rothe
6A. Kemlein
8R. Khedira
28C. Trimmel
10Ilyas Ansah
7O. Burke
23A. Ilić
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences FC St. Pauli
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Union Berlin
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- FC St. Pauli-0.1 pp
- Draw-0.1 pp
- Union Berlin+0.2 pp
Home / Away this season
FC St. Pauli · Home
0.80points per game · 5 home games
- W-D-L
- 1-1-3
- Scored
- 1.20
- Conceded
- 2.60
Union Berlin · Away
0.75points per game · 4 away games
- W-D-L
- 1-0-3
- Scored
- 1.00
- Conceded
- 2.25
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 9 this season
| Opponent | FC St. Pauli | Union Berlin |
|---|---|---|
| SC Freiburg | L 1–2 A | D 0–0 H |
| Borussia Mönchengladbach | L 0–4 H | W 3–1 H |
| Eintracht Frankfurt | L 0–2 A | W 4–3 A |
| 1899 Hoffenheim | L 0–3 H | L 2–4 H |
| Werder Bremen | L 0–1 A | L 0–1 A |
| Bayer Leverkusen | L 1–2 H | L 0–2 A |
| VfB Stuttgart | L 0–2 A | W 2–1 H |
| Hamburger SV | W 2–0 A | D 0–0 H |
| Borussia Dortmund | D 3–3 H | L 0–3 A |
| Points | 4 of 27 · 0.44 per game | 11 of 27 · 1.22 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 2 of 2 meetings
1 FC St. Pauli wins0 draws1 Union Berlin wins
Goals per game1.50 – 0.50
Over 2.550%
Both scored0%
Clean sheets50% · 50%
- 26 Jan 2025FC St. Pauli3–0Union Berlin
- 30 Aug 2024Union Berlin1–0FC St. Pauli
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| FC St. Pauli | Union Berlin | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.90 | 1.30 | |
| Conceded per game | 2.00 | 1.70 | |
| Match goals | 2.90 | 3.00 | 2.76 |
| Over 1.5 | 90% | 70% | |
| Over 2.5 | 60% | 60% | 52% |
| Over 3.5 | 20% | 40% | |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 50% | 56% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 20% | |
| Failed to score | 50% | 50% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
| FC St. Pauli | Union Berlin | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.90 | 1.30 | |
| Conceded per game | 2.00 | 1.70 | |
| Match goals | 2.90 | 3.00 | 2.76 |
| Over 1.5 | 90% | 70% | |
| Over 2.5 | 60% | 60% | 52% |
| Over 3.5 | 20% | 40% | |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 50% | 56% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 20% | |
| Failed to score | 50% | 50% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| FC St. Pauli | Union Berlin | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.56 | 5.10 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.44 | 4.80 | |
| Match total | 9.00 | 9.90 | 9.68 |
| Over 8.5 | 56% 5/9 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 44% 4/9 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 44% 4/9 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.80 | 2.90 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.40 | 2.30 | |
| Match total | 4.20 | 5.20 | 4.16 |
| Over 3.5 | 60% 6/10 | 80% 8/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 40% 4/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| FC St. Pauli | Union Berlin | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.56 | 5.10 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.44 | 4.80 | |
| Match total | 9.00 | 9.90 | 9.68 |
| Over 8.5 | 56% 5/9 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 44% 4/9 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 44% 4/9 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.80 | 2.90 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.40 | 2.30 | |
| Match total | 4.20 | 5.20 | 4.16 |
| Over 3.5 | 60% 6/10 | 80% 8/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 40% 4/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Tobias Stieler Germany · 92 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.67league 3.98
Red cards0.18league 0.20
Cards 5+33%league 41%
Fouls22.2league 21.8
Penalties0.32league 0.36
Home wins53%league 45%
FC St. Pauli1 with this referee
Record0-0-1
Cards · opp.1.0 · 2.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- L1 Mar 25H · Borussia Dortmund0–21
Union Berlin11 with this referee
Record4-4-3
Cards · opp.1.8 · 1.7
Pens for · against0 · 1
Reds2
- D19 Apr 25H · VfB Stuttgart4–40
- W8 Feb 25A · 1899 Hoffenheim4–01
- L23 Nov 24A · VfL Wolfsburg0–12
- L12 Apr 24A · FC Augsburg0–21
- L28 Oct 23A · Werder Bremen0–25
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
FC St. Pauli10 games · scored 9 · conceded 20
2
0-15
1
2
16-30
2
5
31-45
2
6
46-60
1
3
61-75
3
2
76-90
Union Berlin10 games · scored 13 · conceded 17
2
0-15
3
16-30
2
7
31-45
3
3
46-60
1
1
61-75
2
6
76-90
FC St. Pauli10 games · scored 9 · conceded 20
2
0-15
1
2
16-30
2
5
31-45
2
6
46-60
1
3
61-75
3
2
76-90
Union Berlin10 games · scored 13 · conceded 17
2
0-15
3
16-30
2
7
31-45
3
3
46-60
1
1
61-75
2
6
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
