Bundesliga Gameweek 11 Sun, Nov 23 · 16:30 Millerntor-Stadion, Hamburg
FC St. Pauli 16th · 7 pts · 10 played
0–1Full time
Union Berlin 12th · 12 pts · 10 played
Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →
FC St. Pauli32.5%fair odds 3.08
Draw26.6%fair odds 3.76
Union Berlin40.9%fair odds 2.45
Expected goals1.29 – 1.47total 2.76
Likeliest score1–112.6%

Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.

Match Opportunity

How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.

FC St. Pauli

— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.

Union Berlin

— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.

About this comparison

The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.

Score matrix

FC St. Pauli ↓ · Union Berlin →0123456+
06.98.76.93.41.20.40.1
17.512.68.84.31.60.50.1
25.27.75.72.81.00.30.1
32.33.32.41.20.40.10.0
40.71.10.80.40.10.00.0
50.20.30.20.10.00.00.0
6+0.00.10.10.00.00.00.0

Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are FC St. Pauli goals, columns Union Berlin goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.

Most likely scores

  • 1–112.6%7.92
  • 1–28.8%11.32
  • 0–18.7%11.54
  • 2–17.7%12.94
  • 1–07.5%13.33
  • 0–06.9%14.39
  • 0–26.9%14.59
  • 2–25.7%17.56
  • 2–05.2%19.06
  • 1–34.3%23.05

Winning margin

4.9% FC St. Pauli by 3+ fair 20.32
9.5% FC St. Pauli by 2 fair 10.57
18.1% FC St. Pauli by 1 fair 5.52
26.6% Draw fair 3.76
20.8% Union Berlin by 1 fair 4.81
12.4% Union Berlin by 2 fair 8.09
7.7% Union Berlin by 3+ fair 12.92

Goal distribution

Total goals

7%0
16%1
25%2
22%3
15%4
15%5+

FC St. Pauli goals

28%0
36%1
23%2
10%3
4%4+

Union Berlin goals

23%0
34%1
25%2
12%3
6%4+

LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda

LOAD90EloLambdaChange
FC St. Pauli win 32.5% 31.5% +1.0 pp
Draw 26.6% 26.9% -0.3 pp
Union Berlin win 40.9% 41.7% -0.8 pp
Over 2.5 52.2% 50.8% +1.4 pp
Both teams score 56.5% 55.3% +1.2 pp
Expected goals FC St. Pauli 1.29 1.24 +0.05
Expected goals Union Berlin 1.47 1.46 +0.01

EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.

All markets model probability and fair odds

Result

  • FC St. Pauli win32.5%3.08
  • Draw26.6%3.76
  • Union Berlin win40.9%2.45
  • Double chance FC St. Pauli or draw59.1%1.69
  • Double chance FC St. Pauli or Union Berlin73.4%1.36
  • Double chance Union Berlin or draw67.5%1.48
  • Draw no bet FC St. Pauli44.3%2.26
  • Draw no bet Union Berlin55.7%1.79

Goals

  • Over 0.593.1%1.07
  • Over 1.576.9%1.30
  • Over 2.552.2%1.92
  • Over 3.530.0%3.34
  • Over 4.514.7%6.82
  • Under 1.523.1%4.33
  • Under 2.547.8%2.09
  • Under 3.570.0%1.43

Both teams to score

  • Yes56.5%1.77
  • No43.5%2.30
  • Yes and over 2.543.9%2.28
  • FC St. Pauli win and yes16.5%6.05
  • Draw and yes19.7%5.08
  • Union Berlin win and yes20.3%4.93

Team goals

  • FC St. Pauli over 0.572.5%1.38
  • FC St. Pauli over 1.536.9%2.71
  • FC St. Pauli over 2.514.0%7.12
  • Union Berlin over 0.577.1%1.30
  • Union Berlin over 1.543.3%2.31
  • Union Berlin over 2.518.5%5.42
  • FC St. Pauli clean sheet22.9%4.36
  • Union Berlin clean sheet27.5%3.63
  • FC St. Pauli win to nil16.0%6.26
  • Union Berlin win to nil20.6%4.85

Handicap

  • FC St. Pauli −1.514.4%6.95
  • FC St. Pauli −2.54.9%20.32
  • Union Berlin +1.585.6%1.17
  • Union Berlin +2.595.1%1.05
  • Union Berlin −1.520.1%4.98
  • FC St. Pauli +1.579.9%1.25

Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.

Model track record Bundesliga 2025-2026

All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.

Matches scored98 Favourite won59.2% Avg chance given to result44.3% 1X2 Brier0.532 Over 2.5 called right63.3% BTTS called right58.2%

Calibration · when the favourite was given…

Favourite chanceMatchesPredictedActually won
30–40%1538.1%46.7%
40–50%3045.2%43.3%
50–60%2354.7%60.9%
60–70%1965.5%84.2%
70–80%1074.5%70.0%
80%+187.0%100.0%

LOAD90 vs Bookmaker

Compared on the same 80 of 98 scored matches.

LOAD90Bookmaker
1X2 Brier (lower is better)0.50800.5189
Avg chance given to result45.5%44.5%
Favourite won62.5%63.8%

Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off. Bookmaker identity is unavailable for 80 archived lines; these prices may come from different bookmakers.

Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 98 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.