FC St. Pauli
Attack—
Defense risk—
FC St. Pauli
17th · 17 pts · 22 played
DDLWL
2–1Full time
Werder Bremen
16th · 19 pts · 22 played
LLDLL
Our take
It was too close to call.
Werder Bremen were the stronger side on L90 Strength (42 vs 26). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for FC St. Pauli. FC St. Pauli had 8.1 days of rest, Werder Bremen 8.1 and had to travel 95 km.
Away travel95 kmRest days8.1 · 8.1Matches / 14d1 · 1
FC St. Pauli35%
Draw27%
Werder Bremen38%
FC St. Pauli33%
Draw27%
Werder Bremen39%
FC St. Pauli37%
Draw27%
Werder Bremen36%
FC St. Pauli29%
Draw26%
Werder Bremen45%
FC St. Pauli35%
Draw28%
Werder Bremen37%
Over 2.5 52%
Both score 56%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Hamburg)
No weather data yet
Referee · GermanySören Storks
- Cards per match 4.5
- Penalties per match 0.29
- Matches 28
Team strength
FC St. PauliWerder Bremen
26
L90 StrengthIn forecast
42
24
Current StrengthIn forecast
43
20
AttackIn forecast
56
23
DefenceIn forecast
45
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisWerder Bremen
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
FC St. PauliWerder Bremen
0.91
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.00
1.77
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.91
0.86
xGVia Att/Def
1.03
1.37
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.52
+0.05
Goals minus xGContext
-0.03
59%
Scored inContext
55%
14%
Clean sheetsContext
18%
10.23
ShotsContext
13.09
3.52
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.19
33%
On target shareContext
31%
5.86
Shots in the boxContext
8.24
56%
Box shareContext
60%
9%
ConversionContext
8%
2.56
OffsidesContext
1.78
10.95
Shots allowedContext
13.86
4.95
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.55
3.35
BlocksContext
3.50
3.33
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.50
66%
Save rateContext
63%
45%
PossessionIn forecast
50%
431
PassesContext
465
341
Accurate passesContext
384
79%
Pass accuracyContext
82%
6.72
Team ratingContext
6.75
9.95
FoulsContext
9.77
9.86
Fouls sufferedContext
9.73
1.32
Yellow cardsContext
2.14
0.05
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.00
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.60
1.50
Goals concededVia Att/Def
2.10
0.88
xGVia Att/Def
0.92
1.41
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.33
+0.12
Goals minus xGContext
-0.32
70%
Scored inContext
30%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
10%
9.00
ShotsContext
13.60
3.44
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.67
34%
On target shareContext
24%
5.50
Shots in the boxContext
8.20
58%
Box shareContext
57%
11%
ConversionContext
4%
2.50
OffsidesContext
1.75
10.90
Shots allowedContext
12.10
4.70
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.20
3.38
BlocksContext
2.90
3.10
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.20
66%
Save rateContext
62%
41%
PossessionIn forecast
52%
385
PassesContext
468
297
Accurate passesContext
386
77%
Pass accuracyContext
82%
6.77
Team ratingContext
6.68
8.80
FoulsContext
10.30
9.30
Fouls sufferedContext
9.30
0.90
Yellow cardsContext
1.80
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
FC St. Pauli
Rest8.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km694 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Werder Bremen
Rest8.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel95 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| FC St. Pauli |
Werder Bremen |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 8.1Bundesliga 2025-2026, 14 Feb | 8.1Bundesliga 2025-2026, 14 Feb |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 95 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 694 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 1 / 4 | 0 / 1 / 4 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 5.9 | 5.9 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
FC St. Pauli
Confirmed XI
22N. Vasilj(G)
3K. Mets
5H. Wahl
15Tomoya Ando
11Arkadiusz Pyrka
7J. Irvine
8E. Smith
2E. Saliakas
16J. Fujita
10D. Sinani
19M. Kaars
Werder Bremen
Confirmed XI
30M. Backhaus(G)
32M. Friedl
4N. Stark
14S. Lynen
23I. Schmidt
18Cameron Puertas
6J. Stage
11J. Njinmah
20R. Schmid
7S. Mbangula
17M. Grüll
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences FC St. Pauli
Scores -0.04 · concedes +0.06 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Werder Bremen
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.04 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- FC St. Pauli-1.3 pp
- Draw-0.3 pp
- Werder Bremen+1.6 pp
Home / Away this season
FC St. Pauli · Home
1.20points per game · 10 home games
- W-D-L
- 3-3-4
- Scored
- 1.10
- Conceded
- 1.70
Werder Bremen · Away
0.55points per game · 11 away games
- W-D-L
- 1-3-7
- Scored
- 0.91
- Conceded
- 1.91
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 16 this season
| Opponent | FC St. Pauli | Werder Bremen |
|---|---|---|
| Bayer Leverkusen | L 0–4 AL 1–2 H | L 0–1 AD 3–3 H |
| VfB Stuttgart | W 2–1 HL 0–2 A | L 0–4 H |
| FC Augsburg | L 1–2 AW 2–1 H | D 0–0 A |
| RB Leipzig | D 1–1 H | L 0–2 A |
| Hamburger SV | D 0–0 HW 2–0 A | L 2–3 A |
| Borussia Dortmund | L 2–3 AD 3–3 H | L 0–3 A |
| VfL Wolfsburg | L 1–2 A | W 2–1 H |
| FSV Mainz 05 | D 0–0 A | D 1–1 A |
| 1. FC Heidenheim | W 2–1 H | D 2–2 A |
| 1.FC Köln | D 1–1 A | D 1–1 H |
| Bayern München | L 1–3 A | L 0–3 HL 0–4 A |
| Union Berlin | L 0–1 H | W 1–0 H |
| SC Freiburg | L 1–2 A | L 0–1 AL 0–3 H |
| Borussia Mönchengladbach | L 0–4 H | D 1–1 HW 4–0 A |
| Eintracht Frankfurt | L 0–2 A | D 3–3 HL 1–4 A |
| 1899 Hoffenheim | L 0–3 H | L 0–2 H |
| Points | 17 of 63 · 0.81 per game | 16 of 63 · 0.76 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 3 of 3 meetings
0 FC St. Pauli wins1 draws2 Werder Bremen wins
Goals per game0.00 – 1.00
Over 2.50%
Both scored0%
Clean sheets33% · 100%
- 4 Oct 2025Werder Bremen1–0FC St. Pauli
- 27 Apr 2025Werder Bremen0–0FC St. Pauli
- 14 Dec 2024FC St. Pauli0–2Werder Bremen
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| FC St. Pauli | Werder Bremen | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.91 | 1.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.77 | 1.91 | |
| Match goals | 2.68 | 2.91 | 2.75 |
| Over 1.5 | 82% | 77% | |
| Over 2.5 | 59% | 55% | 52% |
| Over 3.5 | 23% | 36% | |
| Both teams scored | 55% | 41% | 56% |
| Clean sheets | 14% | 18% | |
| Failed to score | 41% | 45% | |
| Games | 22 | 22 |
| FC St. Pauli | Werder Bremen | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.00 | 0.60 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.50 | 2.10 | |
| Match goals | 2.50 | 2.70 | 2.75 |
| Over 1.5 | 80% | 70% | |
| Over 2.5 | 60% | 50% | 52% |
| Over 3.5 | 20% | 30% | |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 30% | 56% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 10% | |
| Failed to score | 30% | 70% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| FC St. Pauli | Werder Bremen | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.90 | 5.50 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.71 | 5.75 | |
| Match total | 9.61 | 11.25 | 9.66 |
| Over 8.5 | 71% 15/21 | 75% 12/16 | |
| Over 9.5 | 52% 11/21 | 75% 12/16 | |
| Over 10.5 | 33% 7/21 | 50% 8/16 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.36 | 2.27 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.86 | 1.59 | |
| Match total | 3.22 | 3.86 | 3.94 |
| Over 3.5 | 41% 9/22 | 59% 13/22 | |
| Over 4.5 | 23% 5/22 | 36% 8/22 | |
| FC St. Pauli | Werder Bremen | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.30 | 5.44 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.70 | 4.22 | |
| Match total | 10.00 | 9.66 | 9.66 |
| Over 8.5 | 80% 8/10 | 56% 5/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 60% 6/10 | 56% 5/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 20% 2/10 | 33% 3/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.00 | 1.90 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.50 | 1.90 | |
| Match total | 2.50 | 3.80 | 3.94 |
| Over 3.5 | 30% 3/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 10% 1/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Sören Storks Germany · 28 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.32league 3.78
Red cards0.21league 0.17
Cards 5+57%league 39%
Fouls21.6league 20.7
Penalties0.29league 0.36
Home wins43%league 46%
FC St. Pauli4 with this referee
Record2-1-1
Cards · opp.1.0 · 3.3
Pens for · against0 · 0
Reds1
- W13 Dec 25H · 1. FC Heidenheim2–13
- L4 Oct 25A · Werder Bremen0–10
- D20 Apr 25H · Bayer Leverkusen1–11
- W26 Jan 25H · Union Berlin3–00
Werder Bremen4 with this referee
Record2-1-1
Cards · opp.3.3 · 1.0
Pens for · against0 · 2
- W4 Oct 25H · FC St. Pauli1–03
- D3 May 25A · Union Berlin2–24
- L7 Feb 25A · Bayern München0–33
- W9 Nov 24H · Holstein Kiel2–13
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
FC St. Pauli22 games · scored 20 · conceded 39
1
4
0-15
1
3
16-30
6
9
31-45
4
10
46-60
3
5
61-75
5
8
76-90
Werder Bremen22 games · scored 22 · conceded 42
2
4
0-15
3
6
16-30
2
8
31-45
2
4
46-60
3
10
61-75
10
10
76-90
FC St. Pauli10 games · scored 10 · conceded 15
2
0-15
1
16-30
4
2
31-45
2
4
46-60
2
2
61-75
2
4
76-90
Werder Bremen10 games · scored 6 · conceded 21
3
0-15
1
2
16-30
1
4
31-45
2
46-60
4
61-75
4
6
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
