Süper Lig Gameweek 12 Sun, Nov 22 · 10:30 Kazım Karabekir Stadyumu, Erzurum
Erzurumspor FK 11th · 11 pts · 8 played
VS— Compare
Goztepe 13th · 9 pts · 8 played
Get full prediction oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →
Our take

No forecast yet.

Forecasts are published up to 21 days before kick-off.

Away travel1,229 kmRest days14 · 14.8Matches / 14d1 · 0
Real contextStrength only
Erzurumspor FK—%
Draw—%
Goztepe—%
Expected goals — – — No forecast for this match yet. Forecasts are published up to 21 days ahead.
Weather (Erzurum)

Forecast from 7 Nov

Referee—Not appointed yet

Key insights

Automatic descriptive highlights for Erzurumspor FK and Goztepe. These describe recorded performance and do not change the match forecast. Each metric is ordered within its own type; types alternate to keep the selection varied. Up to six distinct signals per category, with at most three per team.

Result statistics require at least five known completed matches. They use the last ten recorded results across all competitions, or the last eight away results. Future, special and invalid results are excluded; missing results can interrupt real-world sequences, so streaks refer to recorded results. 10+ means at least ten within the window.

Bars run oldest to newest. Height shows goals scored, or goals conceded in conceding cards, on the same 0–6 scale. Six or more goals use maximum height; zero retains a small marker. Colour shows the result: teal = win, amber = draw, red = loss. In event and streak cards, solid bars mark the event and faded bars mark its absence. Hover for the date, full score and event. xG and points cards compare their two inputs, not a fabricated history.

xG Difference uses the observed pre-match Playing style averages already shown for this fixture. Window size is not xG coverage, and the two averages can have different denominators. Result statistics use completed matches recorded up to now; their window can differ from the Playing style profile. Season points and xPts are not included here.

Headlines

Headlines insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Attack

Attack insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Defence

Defence insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Streaks

Streaks insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Team strength

Erzurumspor FKGoztepe
— L90 StrengthIn forecast —
27 Current StrengthIn forecast 29
17 AttackIn forecast 39
38 DefenceIn forecast 36
56 Form indexContext 37
In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Erzurumspor FK

Attack—
Defense risk—

Goztepe

Attack—
Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Erzurumspor FKGoztepe
0.63 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 2.13
1.38 Goals concededVia Att/Def 2.00
0.82 xGVia Att/Def 1.69
1.10 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.58
-0.19 Goals minus xGContext +0.44
50% Scored inContext 88%
50% Clean sheetsContext 13%
9.43 ShotsContext 15.25
3.29 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 5.50
35% On target shareContext 36%
6.29 Shots in the boxContext 11.25
63% Box shareContext 73%
8% ConversionContext 14%
1.50 OffsidesContext 2.50
11.29 Shots allowedContext 15.38
3.43 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.25
2.20 BlocksContext 5.43
2.50 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.71
75% Save rateContext 61%
46% PossessionIn forecast 41%
409 PassesContext 278
341 Accurate passesContext 198
83% Pass accuracyContext 71%
6.67 Team ratingContext 6.74
11.71 FoulsContext 14.88
9.86 Fouls sufferedContext 8.75
1.38 Yellow cardsContext 2.63
0.00 Red cardsContext 0.13
This league season, per match · 8 and 8 games
0.63 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.90
1.38 Goals concededVia Att/Def 2.00
0.82 xGVia Att/Def 1.77
1.10 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.50
-0.19 Goals minus xGContext +0.13
50% Scored inContext 80%
50% Clean sheetsContext 10%
9.43 ShotsContext 16.30
3.29 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 5.50
35% On target shareContext 34%
6.29 Shots in the boxContext 12.30
63% Box shareContext 74%
8% ConversionContext 12%
1.50 OffsidesContext 2.50
11.29 Shots allowedContext 14.80
3.43 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.40
2.20 BlocksContext 4.78
2.50 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.78
75% Save rateContext 61%
46% PossessionIn forecast 40%
409 PassesContext 266
341 Accurate passesContext 190
83% Pass accuracyContext 71%
6.67 Team ratingContext 6.74
11.71 FoulsContext 15.40
9.86 Fouls sufferedContext 8.90
1.38 Yellow cardsContext 2.60
0.00 Red cardsContext 0.20
Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 8 and 10 games
In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Erzurumspor FK
Rest14 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km278 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 56 · 10 pts vs 9.3 for an average club · +2.7 vs expected
  • W17 OctH · Eyüpspor2–02.2 xPts
  • D10 OctA · Alanyaspor0–01.1 xPts
  • W20 SepH · Samsunspor1–01.6 xPts
  • L11 SepA · Besiktas0–30.7 xPts
  • W5 SepH · Konyaspor1–01.7 xPts
Goztepe
Rest14.8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel1,229 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load12%Low
Form 37 · 8 pts vs 9.5 for an average club · +0.7 vs expected
  • W18 OctA · Kocaelispor2–11.4 xPts
  • W12 OctA · Eyüpspor4–01.6 xPts
  • D20 SepH · Rizespor2–21.4 xPts
  • D12 SepA · Alanyaspor2–21.2 xPts
  • L7 SepH · Gazişehir Gaziantep2–41.8 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery
Erzurumspor FK Goztepe
Schedule loaddescriptive index, contextLow · 0Low · 12
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecastNoNo
Rest dayssince last match14Süper Lig 2026-2027, 8 Nov14.8Süper Lig 2026-2027, 7 Nov
Travel to venuefrom home stadium0 km1,229 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways278 km0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days0 / 1 / 20 / 0 / 3
Next matchdays after this one7.28.2

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Erzurumspor FK Last XI · not confirmed
5-3-2 · vs Eyüpspor (H) 2–0, 17 Oct
1M. Taşkıran(G)
15G. Giorbelidze 18N. Mujakić 22M. Yumlu 4A. Gerxhaliu 53O. Ovacıklı
65M. Rodríguez 42E. Owusu 6B. Baiye
20Miguel Cardoso 10E. Tozlu
Goztepe Last XI · not confirmed
3-4-1-2 · vs Kocaelispor (A) 2–1, 18 Oct
1A. Özçimen(G)
26M. Bokele 19J. Sonko Sundberg 4T. Altıkardeş
12R. Akonnor 20N. Miroshi 5Rhaldney 2A. Kurtulan
8A. Antunes
9Juan 7André Henrique

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences
Erzurumspor FK Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
Goztepe Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
Total impact vs full squads —

Home / Away this season

Erzurumspor FK · Home 2.25points per game · 4 home games
W-D-L
3-0-1
Scored
1.00
Conceded
1.00
Goztepe · Away 1.60points per game · 5 away games
W-D-L
2-2-1
Scored
2.60
Conceded
1.80

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 5 this season

OpponentErzurumspor FKGoztepe
Eyüpspor W 2–0 H W 4–0 A
Alanyaspor D 0–0 A D 2–2 A
Samsunspor W 1–0 H D 3–3 A
Genclerbirligi D 1–1 A L 0–1 H
Galatasaray L 0–4 H L 2–3 A
Points8 of 15 · 1.60 per game5 of 15 · 1.00 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head

No earlier meetings in our data.

Goals & match trends

Erzurumspor FKGoztepeForecast
Scored per game 0.632.13
Conceded per game 1.382.00
Match goals 2.004.13
Over 1.5 63%88%
Over 2.5 38%88%
Over 3.5 13%75%
Both teams scored 13%75%
Clean sheets 50%13%
Failed to score 50%13%
Games88
Erzurumspor FKGoztepeForecast
Scored per game 0.631.90
Conceded per game 1.382.00
Match goals 2.003.90
Over 1.5 63%90%
Over 2.5 38%90%
Over 3.5 13%60%
Both teams scored 13%70%
Clean sheets 50%10%
Failed to score 50%20%
Games810

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

Erzurumspor FKGoztepeLeague
Corners
Corners won3.434.88
Corners conceded3.144.38
Match total6.579.269.12
Over 8.50% 0/763% 5/8
Over 9.50% 0/750% 4/8
Over 10.50% 0/750% 4/8
Cards
Cards1.382.75
Opponent cards2.132.00
Match total3.514.754.04
Over 3.550% 4/888% 7/8
Over 4.550% 4/863% 5/8
Erzurumspor FKGoztepeLeague
Corners
Corners won3.435.22
Corners conceded3.144.56
Match total6.579.789.12
Over 8.50% 0/767% 6/9
Over 9.50% 0/756% 5/9
Over 10.50% 0/756% 5/9
Cards
Cards1.382.80
Opponent cards2.132.10
Match total3.514.904.04
Over 3.550% 4/890% 9/10
Over 4.550% 4/860% 6/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Goal timing

Erzurumspor FK8 games · scored 5 · conceded 11
1 0-15
2 3 16-30
1 1 31-45
2 1 46-60
3 61-75
2 76-90
Goztepe8 games · scored 17 · conceded 16
3 2 0-15
3 1 16-30
4 31-45
4 2 46-60
3 4 61-75
4 3 76-90
Erzurumspor FK8 games · scored 5 · conceded 11
1 0-15
2 3 16-30
1 1 31-45
2 1 46-60
3 61-75
2 76-90
Goztepe10 games · scored 19 · conceded 20
4 2 0-15
3 1 16-30
5 31-45
4 3 46-60
3 4 61-75
5 5 76-90

scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.

Scenario lab Soon

Real contextLOAD90 forecast: EloLambda plus playing style (possession) and High Congestion.
Pure EloLambdaControl forecast without the LOAD90 factors, as on eScored.
Strength onlyElo and home edge only.
Full squadsBoth teams with every player available.
Neutral venueRemove home advantage.

Next fixtures Süper Lig

View all fixtures →
Genclerbirligi Gazişehir Gaziantep Nov 2110:30 Galatasaray Samsunspor Nov 2113:00 Amed Rizespor Nov 2113:00 Kocaelispor Fenerbahce Nov 2116:00 Erzurumspor FK Goztepe Nov 2210:30 Konyaspor Besiktas Nov 2213:00 Kasimpasa Alanyaspor Nov 2213:00 Trabzonspor Eyüpspor Nov 2216:00 Istanbul Basaksehir Çorum FK Nov 2317:00