Ferencvarosi TC
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
Ferencvarosi TC56.6%fair odds 1.77
Draw23.9%fair odds 4.18
Ludogorets19.5%fair odds 5.13
Expected goals1.83 – 0.98total 2.81
Likeliest score1–111.4%
Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.
Match Opportunity
How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.
Ludogorets
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
About this comparison
The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.
Score matrix
| Ferencvarosi TC ↓ · Ludogorets → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.6 | 5.3 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 10.4 | 11.4 | 5.3 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 2 | 10.0 | 9.9 | 4.9 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 3 | 6.1 | 6.0 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 2.8 | 2.8 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 6+ | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are Ferencvarosi TC goals, columns Ludogorets goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.
Most likely scores
- 1–111.4%8.79
- 1–010.4%9.60
- 2–010.0%9.96
- 2–19.9%10.12
- 0–06.6%15.18
- 3–06.1%16.34
- 3–16.0%16.62
- 0–15.3%18.72
- 1–25.3%18.81
- 2–24.9%20.59
Winning margin
15.3%
Ferencvarosi TC by 3+
fair 6.54
17.6%
Ferencvarosi TC by 2
fair 5.69
23.7%
Ferencvarosi TC by 1
fair 4.21
23.9%
Draw
fair 4.18
12.5%
Ludogorets by 1
fair 7.99
5.1%
Ludogorets by 2
fair 19.64
1.9%
Ludogorets by 3+
fair 53.40
Goal distribution
Total goals
7%0
16%1
24%2
22%3
16%4
15%5+
Ferencvarosi TC goals
16%0
29%1
27%2
16%3
11%4+
Ludogorets goals
37%0
37%1
18%2
6%3
2%4+
LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda
| LOAD90 | EloLambda | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ferencvarosi TC win | 56.6% | 56.5% | +0.1 pp |
| Draw | 23.9% | 24.1% | -0.2 pp |
| Ludogorets win | 19.5% | 19.4% | +0.0 pp |
| Over 2.5 | 53.3% | 52.6% | +0.7 pp |
| Both teams score | 53.1% | 52.5% | +0.6 pp |
| Expected goals Ferencvarosi TC | 1.83 | 1.81 | +0.02 |
| Expected goals Ludogorets | 0.98 | 0.97 | +0.01 |
EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.
All markets model probability and fair odds
Result
- Ferencvarosi TC win56.6%1.77
- Draw23.9%4.18
- Ludogorets win19.5%5.13
- Double chance Ferencvarosi TC or draw80.5%1.24
- Double chance Ferencvarosi TC or Ludogorets76.1%1.31
- Double chance Ludogorets or draw43.4%2.30
- Draw no bet Ferencvarosi TC74.4%1.34
- Draw no bet Ludogorets25.6%3.91
Goals
- Over 0.593.4%1.07
- Over 1.577.7%1.29
- Over 2.553.3%1.88
- Over 3.531.1%3.22
- Over 4.515.4%6.49
- Under 1.522.3%4.48
- Under 2.546.7%2.14
- Under 3.568.9%1.45
Both teams to score
- Yes53.1%1.88
- No46.9%2.13
- Yes and over 2.541.7%2.40
- Ferencvarosi TC win and yes25.8%3.88
- Draw and yes17.3%5.77
- Ludogorets win and yes10.0%10.02
Team goals
- Ferencvarosi TC over 0.583.9%1.19
- Ferencvarosi TC over 1.554.5%1.83
- Ferencvarosi TC over 2.527.7%3.61
- Ludogorets over 0.562.6%1.60
- Ludogorets over 1.525.8%3.87
- Ludogorets over 2.57.7%12.94
- Ferencvarosi TC clean sheet37.4%2.67
- Ludogorets clean sheet16.1%6.22
- Ferencvarosi TC win to nil30.8%3.25
- Ludogorets win to nil9.5%10.54
Handicap
- Ferencvarosi TC −1.532.9%3.04
- Ferencvarosi TC −2.515.3%6.54
- Ludogorets +1.567.1%1.49
- Ludogorets +2.584.7%1.18
- Ludogorets −1.57.0%14.36
- Ferencvarosi TC +1.593.0%1.07
Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.
Model track record UEFA Europa League 2025-2026
All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.
Matches scored63
Favourite won52.4%
Avg chance given to result39.5%
1X2 Brier0.592
Over 2.5 called right49.2%
BTTS called right50.8%
Calibration · when the favourite was given…
| Favourite chance | Matches | Predicted | Actually won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40% | 7 | 38.4% | 42.9% |
| 40–50% | 28 | 44.2% | 39.3% |
| 50–60% | 24 | 54.8% | 70.8% |
| 60–70% | 3 | 65.7% | 33.3% |
| 70–80% | 1 | 73.1% | 100.0% |
LOAD90 vs Bookmaker
Compared on the same 45 of 63 scored matches.
| LOAD90 | Bookmaker | |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 Brier (lower is better) | 0.5911 | 0.6054 |
| Avg chance given to result | 39.6% | 39.5% |
| Favourite won | 51.1% | 60.0% |
Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off. Bookmaker identity is unavailable for 45 archived lines; these prices may come from different bookmakers.
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Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 63 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.