Ferencvarosi TC
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Ferencvarosi TC were slight favourites.
Ferencvarosi TC were the stronger side on L90 Strength (44 vs 25). Ferencvarosi TC had 14.1 days of rest, Ludogorets 14 and had to travel 730 km.
Away travel730 kmRest days14.1 · 14Matches / 14d0 · 0
Ferencvarosi TC57%
Draw24%
Ludogorets19%
Ferencvarosi TC57%
Draw24%
Ludogorets19%
Ferencvarosi TC57%
Draw24%
Ludogorets19%
Ferencvarosi TC49%
Draw26%
Ludogorets25%
Ferencvarosi TC56%
Draw24%
Ludogorets19%
Over 2.5 53%
Both score 53%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Budapest)
No weather data yet
Referee · SwedenMohammed Al-Hakim
- Cards per match 3.4
- Penalties per match 0.20
- Matches 20
Team strength
Ferencvarosi TC
Ludogorets
44
L90 StrengthIn forecast
25
57
Current StrengthIn forecast
27
61
AttackIn forecast
27
56
DefenceIn forecast
28
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisLudogorets
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
Ferencvarosi TCLudogorets
1.67
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.33
1.00
Goals concededVia Att/Def
2.00
1.59
xGVia Att/Def
1.43
0.95
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.71
+0.08
Goals minus xGContext
-0.10
100%
Scored inContext
67%
33%
Clean sheetsContext
0%
10.33
ShotsContext
16.33
4.67
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.00
45%
On target shareContext
31%
8.00
Shots in the boxContext
8.67
77%
Box shareContext
50%
16%
ConversionContext
8%
1.50
OffsidesContext
2.00
12.33
Shots allowedContext
11.33
3.33
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.33
4.00
BlocksContext
—
2.33
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.67
70%
Save rateContext
62%
46%
PossessionIn forecast
45%
385
PassesContext
399
305
Accurate passesContext
328
79%
Pass accuracyContext
82%
6.91
Team ratingContext
6.68
16.00
FoulsContext
10.67
11.67
Fouls sufferedContext
11.00
3.00
Yellow cardsContext
1.67
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.80
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.40
1.50
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.50
1.33
xGVia Att/Def
1.43
1.30
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.71
+0.47
Goals minus xGContext
-0.03
80%
Scored inContext
60%
30%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
12.80
ShotsContext
16.00
4.40
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.67
34%
On target shareContext
30%
8.80
Shots in the boxContext
8.00
68%
Box shareContext
56%
14%
ConversionContext
8%
2.17
OffsidesContext
1.71
11.40
Shots allowedContext
12.57
4.22
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.71
3.13
BlocksContext
3.40
2.88
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.50
64%
Save rateContext
60%
48%
PossessionIn forecast
50%
371
PassesContext
382
294
Accurate passesContext
310
79%
Pass accuracyContext
81%
6.93
Team ratingContext
6.74
16.10
FoulsContext
12.71
11.90
Fouls sufferedContext
11.71
2.40
Yellow cardsContext
2.30
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Ferencvarosi TC
Rest14.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Ludogorets
Rest14 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel730 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Ferencvarosi TC |
Ludogorets |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 14.1UEFA Europa League 2025-2026 - League phase, 23 Oct | 14UEFA Europa League 2025-2026 - League phase, 23 Oct |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 730 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 0 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 0 / 1 | 0 / 0 / 1 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 20.9 | 20.9 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Ferencvarosi TC
Confirmed XI
90D. Dibusz(G)
22G. Szalai
28T. Raemaekers
27I. Cissé
20Cadu
36G. Kanichowsky
5N. Keïta
16K. Zachariassen
25Č. Makreckis
11B. Yusuf
8A. Pešić
Ludogorets
Confirmed XI
1S. Padt(G)
3A. Nedyalkov
4Dinis Almeida
24O. Verdon
17Son
30Pedro Naressi
11Caio Vidal
26F. Kaloč
77Erick Marcus
23Deroy Duarte
14P. Stanić
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Ferencvarosi TC
Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Ludogorets
Scores -0.02 · concedes 0.00 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Ferencvarosi TC-0.2 pp
- Draw+0.2 pp
- Ludogorets+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
Ferencvarosi TC · Home
1.00points per game · 1 home games
- W-D-L
- 0-1-0
- Scored
- 1.00
- Conceded
- 1.00
Ludogorets · Away
1.50points per game · 2 away games
- W-D-L
- 1-0-1
- Scored
- 2.00
- Conceded
- 2.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Head to head last 2 of 2 meetings
1 Ferencvarosi TC wins1 draws0 Ludogorets wins
Goals per game1.50 – 0.00
Over 2.550%
Both scored0%
Clean sheets100% · 50%
- 12 Aug 2025Ferencvarosi TC3–0Ludogorets
- 6 Aug 2025Ludogorets0–0Ferencvarosi TC
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Ferencvarosi TC | Ludogorets | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.67 | 1.33 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.00 | 2.00 | |
| Match goals | 2.67 | 3.33 | 2.81 |
| Over 1.5 | 67% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 33% | 67% | 53% |
| Over 3.5 | 33% | 33% | |
| Both teams scored | 67% | 67% | 53% |
| Clean sheets | 33% | 0% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 33% | |
| Games | 3 | 3 |
| Ferencvarosi TC | Ludogorets | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.67 | 1.33 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.00 | 2.00 | |
| Match goals | 2.67 | 3.33 | 2.81 |
| Over 1.5 | 67% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 33% | 67% | 53% |
| Over 3.5 | 33% | 33% | |
| Both teams scored | 67% | 67% | 53% |
| Clean sheets | 33% | 0% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 33% | |
| Games | 3 | 3 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Ferencvarosi TC | Ludogorets | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 2.67 | 3.33 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.00 | 3.00 | |
| Match total | 6.67 | 6.33 | 9.02 |
| Over 8.5 | 0% 0/3 | 33% 1/3 | |
| Over 9.5 | 0% 0/3 | 0% 0/3 | |
| Over 10.5 | 0% 0/3 | 0% 0/3 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 3.33 | 1.67 | |
| Opponent cards | 0.67 | 2.67 | |
| Match total | 4.00 | 4.34 | 4.21 |
| Over 3.5 | 33% 1/3 | 67% 2/3 | |
| Over 4.5 | 33% 1/3 | 33% 1/3 | |
| Ferencvarosi TC | Ludogorets | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.70 | 3.14 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.30 | 4.43 | |
| Match total | 7.00 | 7.57 | 9.02 |
| Over 8.5 | 30% 3/10 | 43% 3/7 | |
| Over 9.5 | 10% 1/10 | 14% 1/7 | |
| Over 10.5 | 10% 1/10 | 14% 1/7 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.60 | 2.30 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.90 | 2.90 | |
| Match total | 4.50 | 5.20 | 4.21 |
| Over 3.5 | 60% 6/10 | 80% 8/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 40% 4/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Mohammed Al-Hakim Sweden · 20 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.20league 4.02
Red cards0.15league 0.16
Cards 5+20%league 40%
Fouls23.5league 24.9
Penalties0.20league 0.43
Home wins50%league 48%
Ferencvarosi TC1 with this referee
Record1-0-0
Cards · opp.3.0 · 3.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- W7 Nov 24A · Dynamo Kyiv4–03
Ludogorets1 with this referee
Record0-0-1
Cards · opp.2.0 · 2.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- L23 Jan 25H · FC Midtjylland0–22
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Ferencvarosi TC3 games · scored 5 · conceded 3
1
0-15
1
16-30
1
31-45
3
46-60
1
61-75
1
76-90
Ludogorets3 games · scored 4 · conceded 6
1
0-15
2
16-30
2
31-45
2
46-60
1
61-75
1
1
76-90
Ferencvarosi TC10 games · scored 18 · conceded 15
3
2
0-15
1
4
16-30
3
4
31-45
6
1
46-60
1
3
61-75
4
1
76-90
Ludogorets10 games · scored 14 · conceded 15
2
0-15
5
16-30
1
4
31-45
4
46-60
4
61-75
6
3
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
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