Fiorentina vs AC Milan – 11 Jan 2026

Serie A Gameweek 20 Sun, Jan 11 · 14:00 Stadio Artemio Franchi, Firenze

Fiorentina 18th · 13 pts · 19 played LWLWD

1–1Full time

AC Milan 2nd · 39 pts · 18 played WDWWD

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

AC Milan were slight favourites.

AC Milan were the stronger side on L90 Strength (70 vs 41). Fiorentina had 3.8 days of rest, AC Milan 2.8 and had to travel 248 km.

Away travel248 kmRest days3.8 · 2.8Matches / 14d2 · 2

Fiorentina27%

Draw27%

AC Milan46%

Expected goals 1.07 – 1.47

Fiorentina27%

Draw26%

AC Milan47%

Expected goals 1.14 – 1.57

Fiorentina27%

Draw27%

AC Milan46%

Expected goals 1.07 – 1.47

Fiorentina21%

Draw26%

AC Milan53%

Expected goals 0.95 – 1.65

Fiorentina27%

Draw26%

AC Milan47%

Expected goals 1.14 – 1.57

Over 2.5 47% Both score 51% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Firenze)

No weather data yet

Referee · ItalyDavide Massa

Cards per match 4.8
Penalties per match 0.15
Matches 101

Team strength

Fiorentina

AC Milan

41 L90 StrengthIn forecast 70

39 Current StrengthIn forecast 65

42 AttackIn forecast 72

34 DefenceIn forecast 69

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Fiorentina

Attack—

Defense risk—

AC Milan

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Fiorentina

AC Milan

1.05 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.61

1.58 Goals concededVia Att/Def 0.78

1.44 xGVia Att/Def 1.57

1.45 xG allowedVia Att/Def 0.97

-0.39 Goals minus xGContext +0.04

68% Scored inContext 94%

16% Clean sheetsContext 50%

13.21 ShotsContext 13.89

3.37 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.78

26% On target shareContext 34%

8.37 Shots in the boxContext 9.50

62% Box shareContext 68%

8% ConversionContext 12%

2.43 OffsidesContext 1.82

12.89 Shots allowedContext 10.17

4.89 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.29

3.11 BlocksContext 3.24

3.16 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.75

65% Save rateContext 82%

53% PossessionIn forecast 52%

417 PassesContext 480

350 Accurate passesContext 421

84% Pass accuracyContext 88%

6.76 Team ratingContext 7.00

12.79 FoulsContext 9.50

16.00 Fouls sufferedContext 11.61

2.37 Yellow cardsContext 1.50

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.11

This league season, per match · 19 and 18 games

1.20 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.60

1.40 Goals concededVia Att/Def 0.80

1.61 xGVia Att/Def 1.69

1.22 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.08

-0.41 Goals minus xGContext -0.09

60% Scored inContext 100%

10% Clean sheetsContext 50%

15.50 ShotsContext 13.80

4.50 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.90

29% On target shareContext 36%

10.50 Shots in the boxContext 9.80

67% Box shareContext 68%

8% ConversionContext 12%

2.38 OffsidesContext 1.80

13.10 Shots allowedContext 11.70

4.40 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.40

3.89 BlocksContext 3.40

2.90 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.80

66% Save rateContext 82%

56% PossessionIn forecast 51%

477 PassesContext 470

412 Accurate passesContext 410

86% Pass accuracyContext 87%

6.85 Team ratingContext 6.99

11.60 FoulsContext 9.30

13.50 Fouls sufferedContext 11.40

2.60 Yellow cardsContext 1.60

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.10

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Fiorentina

Rest3.8 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel0 km468 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

AC Milan

Rest2.8 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel248 km1,386 km in 14d

Schedule load8%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Fiorentina	AC Milan
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 8
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	3.8Serie A 2025-2026, 7 Jan	2.8Serie A 2025-2026, 8 Jan
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	248 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	468 km	1,386 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	2 / 2 / 5	1 / 2 / 3
Next matchdays after this one	7	4.2

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Fiorentina Confirmed XI

4-3-3

43David de Gea(G)

21R. Gosens 5M. Pongračić 15P. Comuzzo 2Dodô

27C. Ndour 44N. Fagioli 8R. Mandragora

10A. Guðmundsson 20M. Kean 65F. Parisi

AC Milan Confirmed XI

3-5-2

16M. Maignan(G)

31S. Pavlović 46M. Gabbia 5K. De Winter

2P. Estupiñán 30A. Jashari 4S. Ricci 8R. Loftus-Cheek 56A. Saelemaekers

11C. Pulišić 9N. Füllkrug

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Fiorentina Absences are shown before kick-off

AC Milan Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Fiorentina+0.0 pp
Draw+0.0 pp
AC Milan+0.0 pp

Home / Away this season

Fiorentina · Home 0.89points per game · 9 home games

W-D-L: 2-2-5
Scored: 1.44
Conceded: 1.56

AC Milan · Away 2.25points per game · 8 away games

W-D-L: 5-3-0
Scored: 1.63
Conceded: 0.63

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 17 this season

Opponent	Fiorentina	AC Milan
Lazio	D 2–2 A	W 1–0 H
Cremonese	W 1–0 H	L 1–2 H
Parma	L 0–1 A	D 2–2 A
Udinese	W 5–1 H	W 3–0 A
Verona	L 1–2 H	W 3–0 H
Sassuolo	L 1–3 A	D 2–2 H
Atalanta	L 0–2 A	D 1–1 A
Juventus	D 1–1 H	D 0–0 A
Genoa	D 2–2 A	D 1–1 H
Lecce	L 0–1 H	W 2–0 A
Inter	L 0–3 A	W 1–0 A
Bologna	D 2–2 H	W 1–0 H
AS Roma	L 1–2 H	W 1–0 H
Pisa	D 0–0 A	D 2–2 H
Napoli	L 1–3 H	W 2–1 H
Torino	D 0–0 A	W 3–2 A
Cagliari	D 1–1 A	W 1–0 A
Points	13 of 51 · 0.76 per game	36 of 51 · 2.12 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 9 of 9 meetings

3 Fiorentina wins1 draws5 AC Milan wins

Goals per game1.44 – 1.67 Over 2.578% Both scored78% Clean sheets0% · 22%

19 Oct 2025AC Milan2–1Fiorentina
5 Apr 2025AC Milan2–2Fiorentina
6 Oct 2024Fiorentina2–1AC Milan
30 Mar 2024Fiorentina1–2AC Milan
25 Nov 2023AC Milan1–0Fiorentina
4 Mar 2023Fiorentina2–1AC Milan

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Fiorentina	AC Milan	Forecast
Scored per game	1.05	1.61
Conceded per game	1.58	0.78
Match goals	2.63	2.39	2.54
Over 1.5	74%	67%
Over 2.5	58%	50%	47%
Over 3.5	32%	22%
Both teams scored	63%	50%	51%
Clean sheets	16%	50%
Failed to score	32%	6%
Games	19	18

	Fiorentina	AC Milan	Forecast
Scored per game	1.30	1.60
Conceded per game	1.50	0.80
Match goals	2.80	2.40	2.54
Over 1.5	70%	60%
Over 2.5	50%	40%	47%
Over 3.5	40%	30%
Both teams scored	60%	50%	51%
Clean sheets	10%	50%
Failed to score	30%	0%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Fiorentina	AC Milan	League
Corners
Corners won	4.53	4.88
Corners conceded	4.58	4.38
Match total	9.11	9.26	8.80
Over 8.5	63% 12/19	63% 10/16
Over 9.5	58% 11/19	38% 6/16
Over 10.5	26% 5/19	31% 5/16
Cards
Cards	2.42	1.61
Opponent cards	2.26	2.11
Match total	4.68	3.72	4.03
Over 3.5	74% 14/19	56% 10/18
Over 4.5	58% 11/19	33% 6/18

	Fiorentina	AC Milan	League
Corners
Corners won	4.90	5.20
Corners conceded	4.90	4.80
Match total	9.80	10.00	8.80
Over 8.5	80% 8/10	70% 7/10
Over 9.5	70% 7/10	50% 5/10
Over 10.5	30% 3/10	40% 4/10
Cards
Cards	2.60	1.70
Opponent cards	2.40	2.00
Match total	5.00	3.70	4.03
Over 3.5	80% 8/10	50% 5/10
Over 4.5	60% 6/10	20% 2/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Davide Massa Italy · 101 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards4.53league 3.88

Red cards0.27league 0.17

Cards 5+50%league 38%

Fouls25.0league 25.8

Penalties0.15league 0.31

Home wins35%league 37%

Fiorentina3 with this referee

Record1-1-1 Cards · opp.2.0 · 4.0 Pens for · against0 · 0

D10 Mar 24H · AS Roma2–22
W30 Oct 22A · Spezia2–13
L24 Apr 22A · Salernitana1–21

AC Milan10 with this referee

Record2-5-3 Cards · opp.2.8 · 2.8 Pens for · against0 · 1

L18 Jan 25A · Juventus0–22
D31 Aug 24A · Lazio2–22
D14 Apr 24A · Sassuolo3–31
D27 Jan 24H · Bologna2–25
W30 Sep 23H · Lazio2–03

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.