Fiorentina
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Fiorentina were slight favourites.
Fiorentina were the stronger side on L90 Strength (40 vs 23). Fiorentina had 8.1 days of rest, Cremonese 7 and had to travel 179 km.
Away travel179 kmRest days8.1 · 7Matches / 14d2 · 1
Fiorentina54%
Draw26%
Cremonese20%
Fiorentina55%
Draw24%
Cremonese20%
Fiorentina54%
Draw26%
Cremonese20%
Fiorentina47%
Draw28%
Cremonese26%
Fiorentina55%
Draw24%
Cremonese21%
Over 2.5 47%
Both score 49%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Firenze)
No weather data yet
Referee · ItalyFederico La Penna
- Cards per match 4.4
- Penalties per match 0.30
- Matches 43
Team strength
Fiorentina
Cremonese
40
L90 StrengthIn forecast
23
39
Current StrengthIn forecast
20
42
AttackIn forecast
16
34
DefenceIn forecast
30
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisCremonese
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
FiorentinaCremonese
1.00
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.06
1.65
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.18
1.39
xGVia Att/Def
0.98
1.42
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.49
-0.39
Goals minus xGContext
+0.08
65%
Scored inContext
65%
12%
Clean sheetsContext
29%
13.00
ShotsContext
8.24
3.00
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.18
23%
On target shareContext
39%
8.24
Shots in the boxContext
4.94
61%
Box shareContext
57%
8%
ConversionContext
13%
2.54
OffsidesContext
2.38
13.06
Shots allowedContext
15.71
4.82
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.00
3.06
BlocksContext
4.44
3.12
Goalkeeper savesContext
4.13
65%
Save rateContext
79%
53%
PossessionIn forecast
46%
409
PassesContext
373
341
Accurate passesContext
292
83%
Pass accuracyContext
78%
6.73
Team ratingContext
6.76
12.88
FoulsContext
12.65
16.18
Fouls sufferedContext
12.53
2.29
Yellow cardsContext
2.12
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.06
1.20
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.00
1.50
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.10
1.45
xGVia Att/Def
1.08
1.17
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.50
-0.25
Goals minus xGContext
-0.08
60%
Scored inContext
60%
0%
Clean sheetsContext
30%
14.30
ShotsContext
9.60
3.70
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.40
26%
On target shareContext
35%
9.60
Shots in the boxContext
5.60
65%
Box shareContext
57%
8%
ConversionContext
10%
2.57
OffsidesContext
2.29
13.30
Shots allowedContext
15.40
4.30
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.70
4.00
BlocksContext
4.56
2.90
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.70
67%
Save rateContext
79%
54%
PossessionIn forecast
47%
455
PassesContext
379
390
Accurate passesContext
293
86%
Pass accuracyContext
77%
6.82
Team ratingContext
6.80
11.80
FoulsContext
13.00
14.30
Fouls sufferedContext
12.40
2.70
Yellow cardsContext
1.90
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Fiorentina
Rest8.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km270 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Cremonese
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel179 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Fiorentina |
Cremonese |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 8.1Serie A 2025-2026, 27 Dec | 7Serie A 2025-2026, 28 Dec |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 179 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 270 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 2 / 3 | 1 / 1 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 3.2 | 4.1 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Fiorentina
Confirmed XI
43David de Gea(G)
6L. Ranieri
5M. Pongračić
15P. Comuzzo
2Dodô
27C. Ndour
8R. Mandragora
10A. Guðmundsson
44N. Fagioli
65F. Parisi
91R. Piccoli
Cremonese
Confirmed XI
1E. Audero(G)
55F. Folino
6F. Baschirotto
24F. Terracciano
3G. Pezzella
27J. Vandeputte
38W. Bondo
32M. Payero
4T. Barbieri
10J. Vardy
90F. Bonazzoli
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Fiorentina
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Cremonese
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Fiorentina-0.3 pp
- Draw+0.1 pp
- Cremonese+0.2 pp
Home / Away this season
Fiorentina · Home
0.63points per game · 8 home games
- W-D-L
- 1-2-5
- Scored
- 1.50
- Conceded
- 1.75
Cremonese · Away
1.33points per game · 9 away games
- W-D-L
- 3-3-3
- Scored
- 1.00
- Conceded
- 1.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 16 this season
| Opponent | Fiorentina | Cremonese |
|---|---|---|
| Parma | L 0–1 A | D 0–0 H |
| Udinese | W 5–1 H | D 1–1 H |
| Verona | L 1–2 H | D 0–0 A |
| Sassuolo | L 1–3 A | W 3–2 H |
| Atalanta | L 0–2 A | D 1–1 H |
| Juventus | D 1–1 H | L 1–2 H |
| Genoa | D 2–2 A | W 2–0 A |
| Lecce | L 0–1 H | W 2–0 H |
| Inter | L 0–3 A | L 1–4 A |
| Bologna | D 2–2 H | W 3–1 A |
| AC Milan | L 1–2 A | W 2–1 A |
| AS Roma | L 1–2 H | L 1–3 H |
| Pisa | D 0–0 A | L 0–1 A |
| Como | L 1–2 H | D 1–1 A |
| Napoli | L 1–3 H | L 0–2 H |
| Torino | D 0–0 A | L 0–1 A |
| Points | 8 of 48 · 0.50 per game | 20 of 48 · 1.25 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 2 of 2 meetings
2 Fiorentina wins0 draws0 Cremonese wins
Goals per game2.50 – 1.00
Over 2.550%
Both scored50%
Clean sheets50% · 0%
- 12 Mar 2023Cremonese0–2Fiorentina
- 14 Aug 2022Fiorentina3–2Cremonese
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Fiorentina | Cremonese | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.00 | 1.06 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.65 | 1.18 | |
| Match goals | 2.65 | 2.24 | 2.56 |
| Over 1.5 | 76% | 71% | |
| Over 2.5 | 59% | 35% | 47% |
| Over 3.5 | 29% | 24% | |
| Both teams scored | 65% | 53% | 49% |
| Clean sheets | 12% | 29% | |
| Failed to score | 35% | 35% | |
| Games | 17 | 17 |
| Fiorentina | Cremonese | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.20 | 1.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.80 | 1.10 | |
| Match goals | 3.00 | 2.10 | 2.56 |
| Over 1.5 | 80% | 70% | |
| Over 2.5 | 60% | 30% | 47% |
| Over 3.5 | 40% | 20% | |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 40% | 49% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 30% | |
| Failed to score | 40% | 40% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Fiorentina | Cremonese | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.53 | 3.44 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.47 | 6.50 | |
| Match total | 9.00 | 9.94 | 8.87 |
| Over 8.5 | 59% 10/17 | 69% 11/16 | |
| Over 9.5 | 53% 9/17 | 44% 7/16 | |
| Over 10.5 | 29% 5/17 | 31% 5/16 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.35 | 2.18 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.24 | 1.94 | |
| Match total | 4.59 | 4.12 | 4.04 |
| Over 3.5 | 76% 13/17 | 59% 10/17 | |
| Over 4.5 | 59% 10/17 | 35% 6/17 | |
| Fiorentina | Cremonese | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.40 | 4.00 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.40 | 6.78 | |
| Match total | 9.80 | 10.78 | 8.87 |
| Over 8.5 | 80% 8/10 | 78% 7/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 70% 7/10 | 56% 5/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 30% 3/10 | 44% 4/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.70 | 2.00 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.40 | 2.10 | |
| Match total | 5.10 | 4.10 | 4.04 |
| Over 3.5 | 90% 9/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 70% 7/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Federico La Penna Italy · 43 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.28league 3.90
Red cards0.12league 0.17
Cards 5+40%league 38%
Fouls25.7league 25.8
Penalties0.30league 0.30
Home wins35%league 39%
Fiorentina8 with this referee
Record5-1-2
Cards · opp.2.4 · 2.6
Pens for · against3 · 1
- D26 Oct 25H · Bologna2–23
- L10 Feb 25A · Inter1–23
- W3 Nov 24A · Torino1–01
- L7 Apr 24A · Juventus0–11
- W29 Dec 23H · Torino1–04
Cremonese1 with this referee
Record0-1-0
Cards · opp.1.0 · 0.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- D21 Sep 25H · Parma0–01
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Fiorentina16 games · scored 16 · conceded 26
2
4
0-15
2
4
16-30
2
4
31-45
4
5
46-60
4
5
61-75
2
4
76-90
Cremonese17 games · scored 18 · conceded 20
2
3
0-15
1
2
16-30
4
5
31-45
3
3
46-60
2
6
61-75
6
1
76-90
Fiorentina10 games · scored 12 · conceded 15
1
2
0-15
3
16-30
2
5
31-45
3
5
46-60
3
2
61-75
1
76-90
Cremonese10 games · scored 10 · conceded 11
1
2
0-15
2
16-30
2
2
31-45
3
46-60
4
61-75
4
1
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
