Fiorentina vs Lecce – 2 Nov 2025

Serie A Gameweek 10 Sun, Nov 2 · 14:00 Stadio Artemio Franchi, Firenze

Fiorentina 19th · 4 pts · 9 played DLLDL

0–1Full time

Lecce 16th · 6 pts · 9 played DWDLL

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Fiorentina were clear favourites.

Fiorentina were the stronger side on L90 Strength (52 vs 22). Fiorentina had 3.8 days of rest, Lecce 4.9 and had to travel 687 km.

Away travel687 kmRest days3.8 · 4.9Matches / 14d3 · 2

Fiorentina63%

Draw23%

Lecce15%

Expected goals 1.87 – 0.79

Fiorentina64%

Draw21%

Lecce15%

Expected goals 2.05 – 0.87

Fiorentina62%

Draw23%

Lecce15%

Expected goals 1.86 – 0.78

Fiorentina55%

Draw26%

Lecce19%

Expected goals 1.67 – 0.88

Fiorentina64%

Draw21%

Lecce15%

Expected goals 2.06 – 0.88

Over 2.5 50% Both score 47% Likeliest score 1–0

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Firenze)

No weather data yet

Referee · ItalyAntonio Rapuano

Cards per match 4.9
Penalties per match 0.27
Matches 52

Team strength

Fiorentina

Lecce

52 L90 StrengthIn forecast 22

39 Current StrengthIn forecast 28

42 AttackIn forecast 36

34 DefenceIn forecast 30

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Fiorentina

Attack—

Defense risk—

Lecce

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Fiorentina

Lecce

0.78 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 0.78

1.67 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.56

1.27 xGVia Att/Def 0.72

1.64 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.20

-0.49 Goals minus xGContext +0.06

67% Scored inContext 56%

22% Clean sheetsContext 33%

11.33 ShotsContext 9.56

2.56 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 2.88

23% On target shareContext 27%

6.89 Shots in the boxContext 5.22

57% Box shareContext 58%

7% ConversionContext 8%

2.63 OffsidesContext 1.29

12.67 Shots allowedContext 11.78

5.00 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.22

2.67 BlocksContext 3.00

3.22 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.67

64% Save rateContext 63%

48% PossessionIn forecast 44%

366 PassesContext 347

298 Accurate passesContext 271

81% Pass accuracyContext 78%

6.67 Team ratingContext 6.66

13.67 FoulsContext 11.67

16.44 Fouls sufferedContext 13.56

1.78 Yellow cardsContext 1.78

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

This league season, per match · 9 and 9 games

1.10 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 0.80

1.40 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.40

1.35 xGVia Att/Def 0.69

1.47 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.24

-0.25 Goals minus xGContext +0.11

70% Scored inContext 60%

40% Clean sheetsContext 40%

12.80 ShotsContext 9.50

3.20 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 2.89

25% On target shareContext 27%

8.20 Shots in the boxContext 5.30

61% Box shareContext 59%

9% ConversionContext 8%

2.78 OffsidesContext 1.29

12.00 Shots allowedContext 13.00

4.60 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.50

2.80 BlocksContext 3.30

3.20 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.20

70% Save rateContext 71%

49% PossessionIn forecast 43%

377 PassesContext 333

308 Accurate passesContext 257

82% Pass accuracyContext 77%

6.72 Team ratingContext 6.72

14.20 FoulsContext 11.60

16.40 Fouls sufferedContext 13.30

1.80 Yellow cardsContext 1.80

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.10

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Fiorentina

Rest3.8 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d3all competitions

Travel0 km993 km in 14d

Schedule load15%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Lecce

Rest4.9 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel687 km1,501 km in 14d

Schedule load11%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Fiorentina	Lecce
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 15	Low · 11
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	3.8Serie A 2025-2026, 29 Oct	4.9Serie A 2025-2026, 28 Oct
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	687 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	993 km	1,501 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	2 / 3 / 3	1 / 2 / 3
Next matchdays after this one	7	6

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Fiorentina Confirmed XI

3-5-2

43David de Gea(G)

6L. Ranieri 15P. Comuzzo 5M. Pongračić

29N. Fortini 44N. Fagioli 14H. Nicolussi 27C. Ndour 2Dodô

9E. Džeko 20M. Kean

+4 more reported missing outside this XI

Lecce Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

30W. Falcone(G)

25A. Gallo 44Tiago Gabriel 4E. Gaspar 17Danilo Veiga

29L. Coulibaly 20Y. Ramadani

19L. Banda 10M. Berisha 7Tete Morente

9N. Štulić

+6 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Fiorentina Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Lecce Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Fiorentina+0.3 pp
Draw-0.2 pp
Lecce-0.1 pp

Home / Away this season

Fiorentina · Home 0.25points per game · 4 home games

W-D-L: 0-1-3
Scored: 1.25
Conceded: 2.25

Lecce · Away 1.00points per game · 4 away games

W-D-L: 1-1-2
Scored: 1.00
Conceded: 1.75

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 4 this season

Opponent	Fiorentina	Lecce
Bologna	D 2–2 H	D 2–2 H
AC Milan	L 1–2 A	L 0–2 H
Napoli	L 1–3 H	L 0–1 H
Cagliari	D 1–1 A	L 1–2 H
Points	2 of 12 · 0.50 per game	1 of 12 · 0.25 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 6 of 6 meetings

3 Fiorentina wins2 draws1 Lecce wins

Goals per game2.17 – 1.00 Over 2.550% Both scored50% Clean sheets50% · 0%

28 Feb 2025Fiorentina1–0Lecce
20 Oct 2024Lecce0–6Fiorentina
2 Feb 2024Lecce3–2Fiorentina
27 Aug 2023Fiorentina2–2Lecce
19 Mar 2023Fiorentina1–0Lecce
17 Oct 2022Lecce1–1Fiorentina

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Fiorentina	Lecce	Forecast
Scored per game	0.78	0.78
Conceded per game	1.67	1.56
Match goals	2.44	2.33	2.65
Over 1.5	78%	56%
Over 2.5	67%	44%	50%
Over 3.5	22%	33%
Both teams scored	67%	44%	47%
Clean sheets	22%	33%
Failed to score	33%	44%
Games	9	9

	Fiorentina	Lecce	Forecast
Scored per game	0.78	0.78
Conceded per game	1.67	1.56
Match goals	2.44	2.33	2.65
Over 1.5	78%	56%
Over 2.5	67%	44%	50%
Over 3.5	22%	33%
Both teams scored	67%	44%	47%
Clean sheets	22%	33%
Failed to score	33%	44%
Games	9	9

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Fiorentina	Lecce	League
Corners
Corners won	4.11	5.11
Corners conceded	4.67	5.33
Match total	8.78	10.44	8.94
Over 8.5	56% 5/9	89% 8/9
Over 9.5	56% 5/9	67% 6/9
Over 10.5	33% 3/9	44% 4/9
Cards
Cards	1.89	1.78
Opponent cards	2.11	1.44
Match total	4.00	3.22	4.00
Over 3.5	56% 5/9	56% 5/9
Over 4.5	44% 4/9	33% 3/9

	Fiorentina	Lecce	League
Corners
Corners won	4.44	5.00
Corners conceded	4.56	6.20
Match total	9.00	11.20	8.94
Over 8.5	56% 5/9	90% 9/10
Over 9.5	56% 5/9	70% 7/10
Over 10.5	33% 3/9	50% 5/10
Cards
Cards	1.90	2.00
Opponent cards	1.80	1.60
Match total	3.70	3.60	4.00
Over 3.5	50% 5/10	60% 6/10
Over 4.5	30% 3/10	40% 4/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Antonio Rapuano Italy · 52 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards4.54league 3.90

Red cards0.35league 0.12

Cards 5+48%league 38%

Fouls25.4league 25.9

Penalties0.27league 0.29

Home wins52%league 37%

Fiorentina6 with this referee

Record4-1-1 Cards · opp.2.7 · 2.8 Pens for · against1 · 1 Reds2

W27 Apr 25H · Empoli2–13
W26 Jan 25A · Lazio2–14
L5 May 24A · Verona1–21
D10 Dec 23A · AS Roma1–14
W18 Sep 22H · Verona2–04

Lecce4 with this referee

Record2-1-1 Cards · opp.0.8 · 3.0 Pens for · against0 · 0

W18 May 25H · Torino1–01
D1 Dec 24H · Juventus1–11
L18 May 24H · Atalanta0–20
W22 Sep 23H · Genoa1–01

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.