FSV Mainz 05
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Bayer Leverkusen were slight favourites.
Bayer Leverkusen were the stronger side on L90 Strength (76 vs 55). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for FSV Mainz 05. FSV Mainz 05 were without D. Kohr and P. Nebel. FSV Mainz 05 had 21 days of rest, Bayer Leverkusen 20 and had to travel 148 km. Conditions were neutral.
Away travel148 kmRest days21 · 20Matches / 14d0 · 0
FSV Mainz 0531%
Draw23%
Bayer Leverkusen45%
FSV Mainz 0530%
Draw26%
Bayer Leverkusen44%
FSV Mainz 0533%
Draw24%
Bayer Leverkusen44%
FSV Mainz 0524%
Draw22%
Bayer Leverkusen54%
FSV Mainz 0532%
Draw24%
Bayer Leverkusen44%
Over 2.5 60%
Both score 62%
Likeliest score 1–1
Pre-match forecast. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Mainz)
16°CPartly cloudy
- Precipitation 0.0 mm
- Wind 12 km/h
- Humidity 59%
Referee · GermanyMax Burda
- Cards per match 5.2
- Penalties per match 0.53
- Matches 17
Team strength
FSV Mainz 05
Bayer Leverkusen
55
L90 StrengthIn forecast
76
55
Current StrengthIn forecast
78
68
AttackIn forecast
87
56
DefenceIn forecast
79
58
Form indexContext
70
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisBayer Leverkusen
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
FSV Mainz 05Bayer Leverkusen
2.50
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.50
1.50
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.25
2.24
xGVia Att/Def
2.48
1.55
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.94
+0.26
Goals minus xGContext
+0.02
75%
Scored inContext
100%
50%
Clean sheetsContext
50%
18.25
ShotsContext
22.50
6.25
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
6.25
34%
On target shareContext
28%
13.50
Shots in the boxContext
16.00
75%
Box shareContext
71%
14%
ConversionContext
11%
1.25
OffsidesContext
1.50
12.50
Shots allowedContext
9.00
4.33
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.67
4.50
BlocksContext
2.00
2.33
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.00
54%
Save rateContext
64%
51%
PossessionIn forecast
61%
443
PassesContext
560
358
Accurate passesContext
492
81%
Pass accuracyContext
88%
7.03
Team ratingContext
7.10
13.00
FoulsContext
13.00
11.25
Fouls sufferedContext
11.00
2.25
Yellow cardsContext
1.75
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.90
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.10
1.90
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.30
1.98
xGVia Att/Def
2.37
1.75
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.28
-0.08
Goals minus xGContext
-0.27
80%
Scored inContext
100%
30%
Clean sheetsContext
30%
15.70
ShotsContext
19.80
6.33
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
6.40
36%
On target shareContext
32%
11.30
Shots in the boxContext
14.70
71%
Box shareContext
73%
12%
ConversionContext
11%
1.60
OffsidesContext
1.67
11.90
Shots allowedContext
12.50
5.11
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.33
3.00
BlocksContext
3.40
2.89
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.78
57%
Save rateContext
71%
48%
PossessionIn forecast
59%
417
PassesContext
551
339
Accurate passesContext
486
81%
Pass accuracyContext
88%
6.91
Team ratingContext
7.13
11.60
FoulsContext
9.70
10.30
Fouls sufferedContext
10.50
1.90
Yellow cardsContext
1.40
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
FSV Mainz 05
DWLW
Rest21 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 58 · 7 pts vs 6.1 for an average club · +0.4 vs expected
Bayer Leverkusen
LWDWW
Rest20 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel148 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 70 · 10 pts vs 7.7 for an average club · +0.2 vs expected
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| FSV Mainz 05 |
Bayer Leverkusen |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 21Bundesliga 2026-2027, 19 Sep | 20Bundesliga 2026-2027, 20 Sep |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 148 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 0 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 0 / 2 | 0 / 0 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 7 | 5.1 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
FSV Mainz 05
Confirmed XI
1A. Schwolow(G)
48K. Potulski
3F. Gruber
4S. Posch
2P. Mwene
10N. Amiri
6K. Sano
5E. Martel
19A. Caci
23S. Becker
9P. Tietz
Bayer Leverkusen
Confirmed XI
1M. Flekken(G)
3Miguel Gutiérrez
2F. Medina
12E. Tapsoba
4J. Quansah
24Aleix García
8R. Andrich
9Afonso Moreira
30I. Maza
19M. Diaby
14P. Schick
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences FSV Mainz 05
Scores -0.03 · concedes +0.06 goals
Attack line −19.3% · Defence line −20.5% of weighted minutes
- MID D. Kohr Starter 6.73 Att −9.2% Def −4.6%
- MID P. Nebel Starter 6.62 Att −7.7% Def −3.9%
- DEF S. Widmer Starter 6.90 Def −7.3%
- DEF A. Caci Rotation 6.63 Def −3.1%
- DEF R. Zentner Rotation 6.96 Def −1.4%
- ATT S. Katompa Mvumpa Rotation 6.65 Att −2.1%
Bayer Leverkusen
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.01 goals
Attack line −3.2% · Defence line −2.4% of weighted minutes
- MID Christian Kofane Rotation 6.62 Att −2.2% Def −1.3%
- MID Montrell Amare Culbreath Rotation 6.76 Att −1.0% Def −0.6%
- DEF G. Doué Rotation 6.20 Def −0.6%
Total impact vs full squads
- FSV Mainz 05-1.4 pp
- Draw-0.3 pp
- Bayer Leverkusen+1.7 pp
From eScored squad data: each player's weight is his role (core 3, starter 2, rotation 1, depth 0.5) times his share of minutes. Defenders and keepers count to the defence line, forwards to attack, midfielders half to each. EloLambda turns the lost share into fewer goals scored and more conceded (weight 0.1); the totals show how that moves the result chances.
Home / Away this season
FSV Mainz 05 · Home
0.50points per game · 2 home games
- W-D-L
- 0-1-1
- Scored
- 0.50
- Conceded
- 1.50
Bayer Leverkusen · Away
0.50points per game · 2 away games
- W-D-L
- 0-1-1
- Scored
- 2.00
- Conceded
- 2.50
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Head to head last 10 of 10 meetings
2 FSV Mainz 05 wins2 draws6 Bayer Leverkusen wins
Goals per game1.30 – 2.10
Over 2.570%
Both scored60%
Clean sheets0% · 40%
- 28 Feb 2026Bayer Leverkusen1–1FSV Mainz 05
- 18 Oct 2025FSV Mainz 053–4Bayer Leverkusen
- 17 May 2025FSV Mainz 052–2Bayer Leverkusen
- 14 Jan 2025Bayer Leverkusen1–0FSV Mainz 05
- 23 Feb 2024Bayer Leverkusen2–1FSV Mainz 05
- 30 Sep 2023FSV Mainz 050–3Bayer Leverkusen
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| FSV Mainz 05 | Bayer Leverkusen | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.50 | 2.50 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.50 | 1.25 | |
| Match goals | 4.00 | 3.75 | 3.12 |
| Over 1.5 | 75% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 75% | 75% | 60% |
| Over 3.5 | 75% | 75% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 50% | 62% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 50% | |
| Failed to score | 25% | 0% | |
| Games | 4 | 4 |
| FSV Mainz 05 | Bayer Leverkusen | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.90 | 2.10 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.60 | 1.30 | |
| Match goals | 3.50 | 3.40 | 3.12 |
| Over 1.5 | 80% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 60% | 70% | 60% |
| Over 3.5 | 50% | 50% | |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 70% | 62% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 30% | |
| Failed to score | 20% | 0% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| FSV Mainz 05 | Bayer Leverkusen | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 6.00 | 9.25 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.25 | 3.25 | |
| Match total | 10.25 | 12.50 | 10.89 |
| Over 8.5 | 100% 4/4 | 75% 3/4 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 2/4 | 75% 3/4 | |
| Over 10.5 | 25% 1/4 | 75% 3/4 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.25 | 1.75 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.75 | 2.25 | |
| Match total | 5.00 | 4.00 | 3.61 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 2/4 | 75% 3/4 | |
| Over 4.5 | 25% 1/4 | 50% 2/4 | |
| FSV Mainz 05 | Bayer Leverkusen | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.22 | 8.11 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.22 | 3.44 | |
| Match total | 10.44 | 11.55 | 10.89 |
| Over 8.5 | 89% 8/9 | 78% 7/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 44% 4/9 | 67% 6/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 33% 3/9 | 56% 5/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.90 | 1.40 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.70 | 1.80 | |
| Match total | 4.60 | 3.20 | 3.61 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 5/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 30% 3/10 | 20% 2/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Max Burda Germany · 17 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards5.12league 3.54
Red cards0.06league 0.08
Cards 5+59%league 22%
Fouls23.6league 22.4
Penalties0.53league 0.16
Home wins53%league 51%
FSV Mainz 05No previous matches with this referee.
Bayer LeverkusenNo previous matches with this referee.
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
FSV Mainz 054 games · scored 10 · conceded 6
2
0-15
2
16-30
2
1
31-45
1
2
46-60
61-75
5
1
76-90
Bayer Leverkusen4 games · scored 10 · conceded 5
1
2
0-15
2
16-30
1
31-45
2
3
46-60
1
61-75
3
76-90
FSV Mainz 0510 games · scored 19 · conceded 19
3
3
0-15
3
1
16-30
5
3
31-45
2
3
46-60
3
61-75
6
6
76-90
Bayer Leverkusen10 games · scored 21 · conceded 13
4
4
0-15
3
16-30
3
1
31-45
3
4
46-60
2
1
61-75
6
3
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
