FSV Mainz 05
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
FSV Mainz 05
13th · 4 pts · 4 played
LDLW
0–2Full time
Borussia Dortmund
2nd · 10 pts · 4 played
DWWW
FSV Mainz 0528.2%fair odds 3.55
Draw24.6%fair odds 4.07
Borussia Dortmund47.2%fair odds 2.12
Expected goals1.31 – 1.75total 3.05
Likeliest score1–111.4%
Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.
Match Opportunity
How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.
Borussia Dortmund
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
About this comparison
The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.
Score matrix
| FSV Mainz 05 ↓ · Borussia Dortmund → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.3 | 7.7 | 7.2 | 4.2 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 5.6 | 11.4 | 9.4 | 5.5 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 4.0 | 7.0 | 6.1 | 3.6 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.8 | 3.1 | 2.7 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 6+ | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are FSV Mainz 05 goals, columns Borussia Dortmund goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.
Most likely scores
- 1–111.4%8.81
- 1–29.4%10.63
- 0–17.7%13.02
- 0–27.2%13.89
- 2–17.0%14.20
- 2–26.1%16.27
- 1–05.6%17.84
- 1–35.5%18.28
- 0–05.3%18.87
- 0–34.2%23.88
Winning margin
4.2%
FSV Mainz 05 by 3+
fair 23.90
8.1%
FSV Mainz 05 by 2
fair 12.31
15.9%
FSV Mainz 05 by 1
fair 6.29
24.6%
Draw
fair 4.07
21.4%
Borussia Dortmund by 1
fair 4.67
14.5%
Borussia Dortmund by 2
fair 6.90
11.3%
Borussia Dortmund by 3+
fair 8.86
Goal distribution
Total goals
5%0
13%1
23%2
22%3
17%4
19%5+
FSV Mainz 05 goals
27%0
35%1
23%2
10%3
4%4+
Borussia Dortmund goals
17%0
30%1
27%2
15%3
10%4+
LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda
| LOAD90 | EloLambda | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| FSV Mainz 05 win | 28.2% | 28.2% | +0.0 pp |
| Draw | 24.6% | 26.3% | -1.7 pp |
| Borussia Dortmund win | 47.2% | 45.6% | +1.6 pp |
| Over 2.5 | 58.8% | 51.9% | +6.9 pp |
| Both teams score | 60.8% | 55.6% | +5.2 pp |
| Expected goals FSV Mainz 05 | 1.31 | 1.19 | +0.12 |
| Expected goals Borussia Dortmund | 1.75 | 1.57 | +0.18 |
EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.
All markets model probability and fair odds
Result
- FSV Mainz 05 win28.2%3.55
- Draw24.6%4.07
- Borussia Dortmund win47.2%2.12
- Double chance FSV Mainz 05 or draw52.8%1.89
- Double chance FSV Mainz 05 or Borussia Dortmund75.4%1.33
- Double chance Borussia Dortmund or draw71.8%1.39
- Draw no bet FSV Mainz 0537.4%2.67
- Draw no bet Borussia Dortmund62.6%1.60
Goals
- Over 0.594.7%1.06
- Over 1.581.4%1.23
- Over 2.558.8%1.70
- Over 3.536.4%2.74
- Over 4.519.4%5.17
- Under 1.518.6%5.38
- Under 2.541.2%2.43
- Under 3.563.6%1.57
Both teams to score
- Yes60.8%1.65
- No39.2%2.55
- Yes and over 2.549.4%2.02
- FSV Mainz 05 win and yes16.0%6.23
- Draw and yes19.3%5.18
- Borussia Dortmund win and yes25.4%3.93
Team goals
- FSV Mainz 05 over 0.572.9%1.37
- FSV Mainz 05 over 1.537.6%2.66
- FSV Mainz 05 over 2.514.4%6.92
- Borussia Dortmund over 0.582.5%1.21
- Borussia Dortmund over 1.552.1%1.92
- Borussia Dortmund over 2.525.5%3.93
- FSV Mainz 05 clean sheet17.5%5.73
- Borussia Dortmund clean sheet27.1%3.69
- FSV Mainz 05 win to nil12.2%8.22
- Borussia Dortmund win to nil21.8%4.59
Handicap
- FSV Mainz 05 −1.512.3%8.13
- FSV Mainz 05 −2.54.2%23.90
- Borussia Dortmund +1.587.7%1.14
- Borussia Dortmund +2.595.8%1.04
- Borussia Dortmund −1.525.8%3.88
- FSV Mainz 05 +1.574.2%1.35
Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.
Model track record Bundesliga 2025-2026
All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.
Matches scored37
Favourite won48.6%
Avg chance given to result42.8%
1X2 Brier0.578
Over 2.5 called right70.3%
BTTS called right62.2%
Calibration · when the favourite was given…
| Favourite chance | Matches | Predicted | Actually won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40% | 6 | 37.9% | 33.3% |
| 40–50% | 9 | 45.1% | 22.2% |
| 50–60% | 8 | 54.4% | 50.0% |
| 60–70% | 9 | 66.3% | 77.8% |
| 70–80% | 4 | 73.8% | 50.0% |
| 80%+ | 1 | 87.0% | 100.0% |
LOAD90 vs Bookmaker
Compared on the same 19 of 37 scored matches.
| LOAD90 | Bookmaker | |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 Brier (lower is better) | 0.5196 | 0.5003 |
| Avg chance given to result | 46.2% | 46.7% |
| Favourite won | 52.6% | 63.2% |
Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off. Bookmaker identity is unavailable for 19 archived lines; these prices may come from different bookmakers.
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Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 37 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.