FSV Mainz 05 vs Borussia Dortmund – 27 Sep 2025

Bundesliga Gameweek 5 Sat, Sep 27 · 14:30 MEWA ARENA, Mainz

FSV Mainz 05 13th · 4 pts · 4 played LDLW

0–2Full time

Borussia Dortmund 2nd · 10 pts · 4 played DWWW

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Borussia Dortmund were slight favourites.

Borussia Dortmund were the stronger side on L90 Strength (80 vs 58). FSV Mainz 05 had 7 days of rest, Borussia Dortmund 5.8 and had to travel 180 km.

Away travel180 kmRest days7 · 5.8Matches / 14d2 · 2

FSV Mainz 0528%

Draw25%

Borussia Dortmund47%

Expected goals 1.31 – 1.75

FSV Mainz 0529%

Draw27%

Borussia Dortmund45%

Expected goals 1.17 – 1.53

FSV Mainz 0529%

Draw25%

Borussia Dortmund46%

Expected goals 1.29 – 1.70

FSV Mainz 0522%

Draw23%

Borussia Dortmund55%

Expected goals 1.17 – 1.96

FSV Mainz 0528%

Draw26%

Borussia Dortmund46%

Expected goals 1.19 – 1.57

Over 2.5 59% Both score 61% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Mainz)

No weather data yet

Referee · GermanyTobias Reichel

Cards per match 3.9
Penalties per match 0.30
Matches 44

Team strength

FSV Mainz 05

Borussia Dortmund

58 L90 StrengthIn forecast 80

55 Current StrengthIn forecast 80

68 AttackIn forecast 69

56 DefenceIn forecast 80

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

FSV Mainz 05

Attack—

Defense risk—

Borussia Dortmund

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

FSV Mainz 05

Borussia Dortmund

1.25 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 2.25

1.00 Goals concededVia Att/Def 0.75

1.46 xGVia Att/Def 1.87

1.10 xG allowedVia Att/Def 0.87

-0.21 Goals minus xGContext +0.38

50% Scored inContext 100%

0% Clean sheetsContext 75%

14.75 ShotsContext 12.00

2.75 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 6.25

19% On target shareContext 52%

11.75 Shots in the boxContext 9.50

80% Box shareContext 79%

9% ConversionContext 19%

3.67 OffsidesContext 2.00

15.00 Shots allowedContext 8.75

3.25 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.00

3.75 BlocksContext 2.00

2.25 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.67

69% Save rateContext 73%

52% PossessionIn forecast 62%

400 PassesContext 622

309 Accurate passesContext 554

77% Pass accuracyContext 89%

6.88 Team ratingContext 7.09

10.50 FoulsContext 11.25

11.50 Fouls sufferedContext 8.50

2.00 Yellow cardsContext 1.75

0.25 Red cardsContext 0.25

This league season, per match · 4 and 4 games

1.70 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 3.00

1.40 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.30

1.50 xGVia Att/Def 1.95

1.12 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.17

+0.20 Goals minus xGContext +1.05

70% Scored inContext 100%

0% Clean sheetsContext 50%

15.00 ShotsContext 12.70

4.20 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 6.00

28% On target shareContext 47%

11.30 Shots in the boxContext 9.30

74% Box shareContext 73%

11% ConversionContext 24%

3.63 OffsidesContext 1.63

11.50 Shots allowedContext 10.50

4.00 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.80

2.60 BlocksContext 2.70

2.60 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.67

65% Save rateContext 65%

53% PossessionIn forecast 58%

416 PassesContext 569

330 Accurate passesContext 497

79% Pass accuracyContext 87%

6.94 Team ratingContext 7.16

10.80 FoulsContext 10.70

10.50 Fouls sufferedContext 9.20

1.60 Yellow cardsContext 1.50

0.10 Red cardsContext 0.10

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

FSV Mainz 05

Rest7 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel0 km523 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Borussia Dortmund

Rest5.8 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel180 km738 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	FSV Mainz 05	Borussia Dortmund
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 0
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	7Bundesliga 2025-2026, 20 Sep	5.8Bundesliga 2025-2026, 21 Sep
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	180 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	523 km	738 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	1 / 2 / 3	1 / 2 / 3
Next matchdays after this one	8.1	7

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

FSV Mainz 05 Confirmed XI

3-4-2-1

27R. Zentner(G)

5M. Leitsch 25A. Hanche-Olsen 21D. da Costa

2P. Mwene 10N. Amiri 6K. Sano 30S. Widmer

7J. Lee 8P. Nebel

11A. Sieb

+4 more reported missing outside this XI

Borussia Dortmund Confirmed XI

3-4-3

1G. Kobel(G)

5A. Bensebaini 4N. Schlotterbeck 3W. Anton

24D. Svensson 8F. Nmecha 20M. Sabitzer 2Yan Couto

10J. Brandt 14M. Beier 27K. Adeyemi

+6 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

FSV Mainz 05 Scores -0.03 · concedes +0.06 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Borussia Dortmund Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.04 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

FSV Mainz 05-0.4 pp
Draw-0.4 pp
Borussia Dortmund+0.8 pp

Home / Away this season

FSV Mainz 05 · Home 0.00points per game · 2 home games

W-D-L: 0-0-2
Scored: 0.00
Conceded: 1.00

Borussia Dortmund · Away 2.00points per game · 2 away games

W-D-L: 1-1-0
Scored: 2.50
Conceded: 1.50

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 1 this season

Opponent	FSV Mainz 05	Borussia Dortmund
VfL Wolfsburg	D 1–1 A	W 1–0 H
Points	1 of 3 · 1.00 per game	3 of 3 · 3.00 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 8 of 8 meetings

2 FSV Mainz 05 wins2 draws4 Borussia Dortmund wins

Goals per game1.50 – 1.63 Over 2.575% Both scored75% Clean sheets13% · 13%

30 Mar 2025Borussia Dortmund3–1FSV Mainz 05
9 Nov 2024FSV Mainz 053–1Borussia Dortmund
11 May 2024FSV Mainz 053–0Borussia Dortmund
19 Dec 2023Borussia Dortmund1–1FSV Mainz 05
27 May 2023Borussia Dortmund2–2FSV Mainz 05
25 Jan 2023FSV Mainz 051–2Borussia Dortmund

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	FSV Mainz 05	Borussia Dortmund	Forecast
Scored per game	1.25	2.25
Conceded per game	1.00	0.75
Match goals	2.25	3.00	3.05
Over 1.5	50%	75%
Over 2.5	25%	50%	59%
Over 3.5	25%	25%
Both teams scored	50%	25%	61%
Clean sheets	0%	75%
Failed to score	50%	0%
Games	4	4

	FSV Mainz 05	Borussia Dortmund	Forecast
Scored per game	1.25	2.25
Conceded per game	1.00	0.75
Match goals	2.25	3.00	3.05
Over 1.5	50%	75%
Over 2.5	25%	50%	59%
Over 3.5	25%	25%
Both teams scored	50%	25%	61%
Clean sheets	0%	75%
Failed to score	50%	0%
Games	4	4

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	FSV Mainz 05	Borussia Dortmund	League
Corners
Corners won	6.50	4.75
Corners conceded	4.25	4.25
Match total	10.75	9.00	10.03
Over 8.5	75% 3/4	75% 3/4
Over 9.5	75% 3/4	50% 2/4
Over 10.5	50% 2/4	0% 0/4
Cards
Cards	2.50	2.00
Opponent cards	1.50	1.25
Match total	4.00	3.25	4.49
Over 3.5	50% 2/4	50% 2/4
Over 4.5	25% 1/4	50% 2/4

	FSV Mainz 05	Borussia Dortmund	League
Corners
Corners won	6.30	4.67
Corners conceded	3.60	3.22
Match total	9.90	7.89	10.03
Over 8.5	70% 7/10	33% 3/9
Over 9.5	70% 7/10	22% 2/9
Over 10.5	40% 4/10	0% 0/9
Cards
Cards	1.80	1.60
Opponent cards	1.90	1.50
Match total	3.70	3.10	4.49
Over 3.5	40% 4/10	40% 4/10
Over 4.5	20% 2/10	40% 4/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Tobias Reichel Germany · 44 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards3.84league 4.22

Red cards0.09league 0.32

Cards 5+39%league 49%

Fouls25.3league 22.5

Penalties0.30league 0.54

Home wins41%league 43%

FSV Mainz 054 with this referee

Record2-1-1 Cards · opp.2.0 · 3.8 Pens for · against1 · 1

D17 May 25H · Bayer Leverkusen2–22
W17 Feb 24H · FC Augsburg1–03
L9 Nov 22A · FC Schalke 040–11
W28 Aug 21H · SpVgg Greuther Fürth3–02

Borussia Dortmund2 with this referee

Record0-1-1 Cards · opp.3.5 · 3.5 Pens for · against1 · 2

L5 Oct 24A · Union Berlin1–24
D1 Sep 23H · 1. FC Heidenheim2–23

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.