FSV Mainz 05 vs FC St. Pauli – 21 Dec 2025

Bundesliga Gameweek 15 Sun, Dec 21 · 14:30 MEWA ARENA, Mainz

FSV Mainz 05 18th · 7 pts · 14 played LDLLD

0–0Full time

FC St. Pauli 16th · 11 pts · 14 played LLLDW

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

FSV Mainz 05 were slight favourites.

FSV Mainz 05 were the stronger side on L90 Strength (47 vs 25). FSV Mainz 05 had 6.9 days of rest, FC St. Pauli 8 and had to travel 414 km.

Away travel414 kmRest days6.9 · 8Matches / 14d1 · 1

FSV Mainz 0560%

Draw22%

FC St. Pauli18%

Expected goals 1.99 – 1.00

FSV Mainz 0559%

Draw23%

FC St. Pauli18%

Expected goals 1.88 – 0.95

FSV Mainz 0559%

Draw23%

FC St. Pauli18%

Expected goals 1.96 – 0.99

FSV Mainz 0552%

Draw25%

FC St. Pauli23%

Expected goals 1.77 – 1.12

FSV Mainz 0559%

Draw23%

FC St. Pauli18%

Expected goals 1.90 – 0.96

Over 2.5 57% Both score 55% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Mainz)

No weather data yet

Referee · GermanyMatthias Jollenbeck

Cards per match 4.0
Penalties per match 0.31
Matches 58

Team strength

FSV Mainz 05

FC St. Pauli

47 L90 StrengthIn forecast 25

55 Current StrengthIn forecast 24

68 AttackIn forecast 20

56 DefenceIn forecast 23

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

FSV Mainz 05

Attack—

Defense risk—

FC St. Pauli

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

FSV Mainz 05

FC St. Pauli

0.93 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 0.93

1.86 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.86

1.11 xGVia Att/Def 0.80

1.84 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.40

-0.18 Goals minus xGContext +0.13

50% Scored inContext 57%

0% Clean sheetsContext 7%

10.36 ShotsContext 10.50

2.77 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.69

25% On target shareContext 33%

8.38 Shots in the boxContext 5.86

72% Box shareContext 54%

9% ConversionContext 9%

2.83 OffsidesContext 2.55

15.79 Shots allowedContext 11.43

5.64 On target allowedVia Att/Def 5.36

4.46 BlocksContext 3.70

3.64 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.77

65% Save rateContext 68%

45% PossessionIn forecast 47%

374 PassesContext 451

281 Accurate passesContext 362

75% Pass accuracyContext 80%

6.74 Team ratingContext 6.70

11.93 FoulsContext 10.21

11.00 Fouls sufferedContext 10.29

2.36 Yellow cardsContext 1.57

0.29 Red cardsContext 0.07

This league season, per match · 14 and 14 games

0.90 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 0.60

1.30 Goals concededVia Att/Def 2.00

1.03 xGVia Att/Def 0.59

1.83 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.54

-0.13 Goals minus xGContext +0.01

60% Scored inContext 50%

10% Clean sheetsContext 0%

8.90 ShotsContext 9.90

2.89 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 2.89

29% On target shareContext 26%

7.33 Shots in the boxContext 5.00

69% Box shareContext 49%

10% ConversionContext 6%

2.00 OffsidesContext 2.44

14.40 Shots allowedContext 12.10

5.30 On target allowedVia Att/Def 5.40

5.00 BlocksContext 4.14

3.90 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.78

74% Save rateContext 67%

41% PossessionIn forecast 46%

361 PassesContext 440

269 Accurate passesContext 353

75% Pass accuracyContext 80%

6.78 Team ratingContext 6.65

13.40 FoulsContext 8.70

10.10 Fouls sufferedContext 9.40

2.10 Yellow cardsContext 1.40

0.20 Red cardsContext 0.10

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

FSV Mainz 05

Rest6.9 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel0 km631 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

FC St. Pauli

Rest8 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel414 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load6%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	FSV Mainz 05	FC St. Pauli
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 6
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	6.9Bundesliga 2025-2026, 14 Dec	8Bundesliga 2025-2026, 13 Dec
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	414 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	631 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	1 / 1 / 3	0 / 1 / 4
Next matchdays after this one	20	24.1

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

FSV Mainz 05 Confirmed XI

5-3-2

33D. Batz(G)

30S. Widmer 48K. Potulski 25A. Hanche-Olsen 31D. Kohr 21D. da Costa

7J. Lee 6K. Sano 8P. Nebel

10N. Amiri 17B. Hollerbach

+6 more reported missing outside this XI

FC St. Pauli Confirmed XI

3-4-1-2

22N. Vasilj(G)

3K. Mets 5H. Wahl 25A. Dźwigała

23Louis Oppie 7J. Irvine 6J. Sands 11Arkadiusz Pyrka

16J. Fujita

28M. Pereira Lage 27A. Hountondji

+3 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

FSV Mainz 05 Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

FC St. Pauli Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

FSV Mainz 05+0.4 pp
Draw-0.2 pp
FC St. Pauli-0.2 pp

Home / Away this season

FSV Mainz 05 · Home 0.29points per game · 7 home games

W-D-L: 0-2-5
Scored: 0.71
Conceded: 1.57

FC St. Pauli · Away 0.57points per game · 7 away games

W-D-L: 1-1-5
Scored: 0.71
Conceded: 1.57

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 12 this season

Opponent	FSV Mainz 05	FC St. Pauli
Bayern München	D 2–2 A	L 1–3 A
Borussia Mönchengladbach	L 0–1 H	L 0–4 H
SC Freiburg	L 0–4 A	L 1–2 A
1899 Hoffenheim	D 1–1 H	L 0–3 H
Eintracht Frankfurt	L 0–1 A	L 0–2 A
Werder Bremen	D 1–1 H	L 0–1 A
VfB Stuttgart	L 1–2 A	L 0–2 A
Bayer Leverkusen	L 3–4 H	L 1–2 H
Hamburger SV	L 0–4 A	W 2–0 A
Borussia Dortmund	L 0–2 H	D 3–3 H
FC Augsburg	W 4–1 A	W 2–1 H
1.FC Köln	L 0–1 H	D 1–1 A
Points	6 of 36 · 0.50 per game	8 of 36 · 0.67 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 2 of 2 meetings

2 FSV Mainz 05 wins0 draws0 FC St. Pauli wins

Goals per game2.50 – 0.00 Over 2.550% Both scored0% Clean sheets100% · 0%

22 Feb 2025FSV Mainz 052–0FC St. Pauli
5 Oct 2024FC St. Pauli0–3FSV Mainz 05

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	FSV Mainz 05	FC St. Pauli	Forecast
Scored per game	0.93	0.93
Conceded per game	1.86	1.86
Match goals	2.79	2.79	2.99
Over 1.5	71%	86%
Over 2.5	43%	57%	57%
Over 3.5	36%	21%
Both teams scored	50%	50%	55%
Clean sheets	0%	7%
Failed to score	50%	43%
Games	14	14

	FSV Mainz 05	FC St. Pauli	Forecast
Scored per game	0.80	0.60
Conceded per game	2.20	2.00
Match goals	3.00	2.60	2.99
Over 1.5	80%	80%
Over 2.5	50%	60%	57%
Over 3.5	40%	20%
Both teams scored	50%	50%	55%
Clean sheets	0%	0%
Failed to score	50%	50%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	FSV Mainz 05	FC St. Pauli	League
Corners
Corners won	5.17	5.23
Corners conceded	4.08	4.23
Match total	9.25	9.46	9.79
Over 8.5	50% 6/12	62% 8/13
Over 9.5	50% 6/12	46% 6/13
Over 10.5	33% 4/12	46% 6/13
Cards
Cards	2.71	1.64
Opponent cards	1.71	2.07
Match total	4.42	3.71	4.08
Over 3.5	71% 10/14	50% 7/14
Over 4.5	36% 5/14	36% 5/14

	FSV Mainz 05	FC St. Pauli	League
Corners
Corners won	4.88	5.78
Corners conceded	3.50	4.67
Match total	8.38	10.45	9.79
Over 8.5	25% 2/8	78% 7/9
Over 9.5	25% 2/8	56% 5/9
Over 10.5	25% 2/8	56% 5/9
Cards
Cards	2.40	1.50
Opponent cards	1.90	1.80
Match total	4.30	3.30	4.08
Over 3.5	70% 7/10	40% 4/10
Over 4.5	40% 4/10	20% 2/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Matthias Jollenbeck Germany · 58 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards3.79league 3.90

Red cards0.17league 0.21

Cards 5+38%league 41%

Fouls23.2league 21.3

Penalties0.31league 0.32

Home wins53%league 45%

FSV Mainz 056 with this referee

Record2-0-4 Cards · opp.2.8 · 2.3 Pens for · against2 · 2

L9 Nov 25A · Eintracht Frankfurt0–14
W16 Mar 24H · VfL Bochum2–04
L5 May 23H · FC Schalke 042–34
W21 Oct 22H · 1.FC Köln5–01
L6 Apr 22A · FC Augsburg1–22

FC St. Pauli3 with this referee

Record0-1-2 Cards · opp.2.0 · 2.3 Pens for · against1 · 1

D23 Aug 25H · Borussia Dortmund3–32
L7 Dec 24A · Bayer Leverkusen1–23
L18 Oct 24A · Borussia Dortmund1–21

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.