Fulham
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Arsenal were slight favourites.
Arsenal were the stronger side on L90 Strength (92 vs 65). Fulham had 14.9 days of rest, Arsenal 14.1 and had to travel 0 km.
Away travel0 kmRest days14.9 · 14.1Matches / 14d0 · 0
Fulham18%
Draw22%
Arsenal60%
Fulham19%
Draw24%
Arsenal57%
Fulham19%
Draw22%
Arsenal59%
Fulham14%
Draw19%
Arsenal67%
Fulham19%
Draw24%
Arsenal57%
Over 2.5 60%
Both score 57%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (London)
No weather data yet
RefereeAnthony Taylor
- Cards per match 3.8
- Penalties per match 0.29
- Matches 189
Team strength
Fulham
Arsenal
65
L90 StrengthIn forecast
92
65
Current StrengthIn forecast
94
66
AttackIn forecast
86
68
DefenceIn forecast
95
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisArsenal
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
FulhamArsenal
1.14
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.00
1.57
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.43
1.03
xGVia Att/Def
1.75
1.30
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.63
+0.11
Goals minus xGContext
+0.25
86%
Scored inContext
86%
14%
Clean sheetsContext
57%
10.43
ShotsContext
15.29
3.29
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.14
32%
On target shareContext
27%
6.86
Shots in the boxContext
11.86
66%
Box shareContext
76%
11%
ConversionContext
13%
2.00
OffsidesContext
2.25
10.14
Shots allowedContext
8.00
4.14
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.00
2.86
BlocksContext
3.67
2.71
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.50
66%
Save rateContext
83%
50%
PossessionIn forecast
58%
436
PassesContext
484
363
Accurate passesContext
415
83%
Pass accuracyContext
86%
6.76
Team ratingContext
7.08
14.00
FoulsContext
11.29
11.86
Fouls sufferedContext
10.14
2.29
Yellow cardsContext
1.29
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.20
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.00
1.80
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.40
1.08
xGVia Att/Def
1.83
1.60
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.59
+0.12
Goals minus xGContext
+0.17
80%
Scored inContext
90%
10%
Clean sheetsContext
60%
11.90
ShotsContext
15.70
3.90
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.80
33%
On target shareContext
31%
7.70
Shots in the boxContext
12.30
66%
Box shareContext
78%
10%
ConversionContext
13%
2.00
OffsidesContext
2.00
11.30
Shots allowedContext
8.40
4.70
On target allowedVia Att/Def
2.89
3.30
BlocksContext
3.89
2.90
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.44
62%
Save rateContext
85%
51%
PossessionIn forecast
59%
439
PassesContext
489
368
Accurate passesContext
420
84%
Pass accuracyContext
86%
6.79
Team ratingContext
7.08
13.20
FoulsContext
11.50
10.90
Fouls sufferedContext
11.30
2.10
Yellow cardsContext
1.50
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Fulham
Rest14.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Arsenal
Rest14.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Fulham |
Arsenal |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 14.9Premier League 2025-2026, 3 Oct | 14.1Premier League 2025-2026, 4 Oct |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 0 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 0 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 0 / 3 | 0 / 0 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 6.9 | 7.9 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Fulham
Confirmed XI
1B. Leno(G)
30K. Sessegnon
15Jorge Cuenca
5J. Andersen
21T. Castagne
10T. Cairney
16S. Berge
17A. Iwobi
24J. King
8H. Wilson
7R. Jiménez
Arsenal
Confirmed XI
1David Raya(G)
33R. Calafiori
6Gabriel Magalhães
2W. Saliba
12J. Timber
41D. Rice
36Martín Zubimendi
10E. Eze
19L. Trossard
14V. Gyökeres
7B. Saka
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Fulham
Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.06 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Arsenal
Scores -0.04 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Fulham-0.3 pp
- Draw-0.2 pp
- Arsenal+0.5 pp
Home / Away this season
Fulham · Home
2.33points per game · 3 home games
- W-D-L
- 2-1-0
- Scored
- 1.67
- Conceded
- 0.67
Arsenal · Away
2.00points per game · 3 away games
- W-D-L
- 2-0-1
- Scored
- 1.00
- Conceded
- 0.67
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 2 this season
| Opponent | Fulham | Arsenal |
|---|---|---|
| Leeds | W 1–0 H | W 5–0 H |
| Manchester United | D 1–1 H | W 1–0 A |
| Points | 4 of 6 · 2.00 per game | 6 of 6 · 3.00 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 8 of 8 meetings
1 Fulham wins3 draws4 Arsenal wins
Goals per game1.00 – 1.88
Over 2.575%
Both scored75%
Clean sheets0% · 25%
- 1 Apr 2025Arsenal2–1Fulham
- 8 Dec 2024Fulham1–1Arsenal
- 31 Dec 2023Fulham2–1Arsenal
- 26 Aug 2023Arsenal2–2Fulham
- 12 Mar 2023Fulham0–3Arsenal
- 27 Aug 2022Arsenal2–1Fulham
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Fulham | Arsenal | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.14 | 2.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.57 | 0.43 | |
| Match goals | 2.71 | 2.43 | 3.10 |
| Over 1.5 | 86% | 71% | |
| Over 2.5 | 43% | 43% | 60% |
| Over 3.5 | 43% | 14% | |
| Both teams scored | 71% | 29% | 57% |
| Clean sheets | 14% | 57% | |
| Failed to score | 14% | 14% | |
| Games | 7 | 7 |
| Fulham | Arsenal | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.14 | 2.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.57 | 0.43 | |
| Match goals | 2.71 | 2.43 | 3.10 |
| Over 1.5 | 86% | 71% | |
| Over 2.5 | 43% | 43% | 60% |
| Over 3.5 | 43% | 14% | |
| Both teams scored | 71% | 29% | 57% |
| Clean sheets | 14% | 57% | |
| Failed to score | 14% | 14% | |
| Games | 7 | 7 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Fulham | Arsenal | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.57 | 7.57 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.00 | 3.14 | |
| Match total | 9.57 | 10.71 | 9.69 |
| Over 8.5 | 57% 4/7 | 71% 5/7 | |
| Over 9.5 | 57% 4/7 | 71% 5/7 | |
| Over 10.5 | 29% 2/7 | 71% 5/7 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.29 | 1.29 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.43 | 1.71 | |
| Match total | 3.72 | 3.00 | 3.85 |
| Over 3.5 | 57% 4/7 | 29% 2/7 | |
| Over 4.5 | 43% 3/7 | 14% 1/7 | |
| Fulham | Arsenal | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.00 | 6.60 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.10 | 3.40 | |
| Match total | 9.10 | 10.00 | 9.69 |
| Over 8.5 | 50% 5/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 40% 4/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 20% 2/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.10 | 1.50 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.40 | 1.40 | |
| Match total | 3.50 | 2.90 | 3.85 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 5/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 40% 4/10 | 10% 1/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Anthony Taylor 189 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.67league 3.72
Red cards0.15league 0.13
Cards 5+34%league 42%
Fouls21.1league 22.1
Penalties0.29league 0.21
Home wins34%league 50%
Fulham11 with this referee
Record2-2-7
Cards · opp.1.3 · 1.6
Pens for · against1 · 4
Reds1
- L20 Apr 25H · Chelsea1–21
- L26 Jan 25H · Manchester United0–10
- L11 May 24H · Manchester City0–43
- L13 Jan 24A · Chelsea0–11
- L23 Oct 23A · Tottenham0–20
Arsenal19 with this referee
Record11-6-2
Cards · opp.2.0 · 2.3
Pens for · against4 · 2
Reds2
- D11 May 25A · Liverpool2–23
- D9 Mar 25A · Manchester United1–11
- D4 Jan 25A · Brighton1–13
- W30 Nov 24A · West Ham5–21
- D27 Oct 24H · Liverpool2–22
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Fulham7 games · scored 8 · conceded 11
1
0-15
1
16-30
2
2
31-45
1
5
46-60
2
61-75
2
3
76-90
Arsenal7 games · scored 14 · conceded 3
1
1
0-15
16-30
4
1
31-45
3
46-60
1
61-75
5
1
76-90
Fulham10 games · scored 12 · conceded 18
1
0-15
2
3
16-30
2
4
31-45
1
5
46-60
4
3
61-75
2
3
76-90
Arsenal10 games · scored 20 · conceded 4
2
1
0-15
16-30
5
1
31-45
3
1
46-60
2
61-75
8
1
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
