Fulham vs Brentford – 20 Sep 2025

Premier League Gameweek 5 Sat, Sep 20 · 20:00 Craven Cottage, London

Fulham 13th · 5 pts · 4 played DDLW

3–1Full time

Brentford 16th · 4 pts · 4 played LWLD

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Fulham were slight favourites.

The two sides are close in strength. Fulham had 7.2 days of rest, Brentford 7 and had to travel 13 km.

Away travel13 kmRest days7.2 · 7Matches / 14d1 · 1

Fulham44%

Draw26%

Brentford30%

Expected goals 1.56 – 1.27

Fulham42%

Draw27%

Brentford31%

Expected goals 1.46 – 1.23

Fulham43%

Draw26%

Brentford31%

Expected goals 1.53 – 1.27

Fulham36%

Draw26%

Brentford37%

Expected goals 1.40 – 1.42

Fulham43%

Draw27%

Brentford31%

Expected goals 1.49 – 1.23

Over 2.5 54% Both score 57% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (London)

No weather data yet

RefereeMichael Oliver

Cards per match 3.7
Penalties per match 0.29
Matches 182

Team strength

Fulham

Brentford

66 L90 StrengthIn forecast 69

65 Current StrengthIn forecast 75

66 AttackIn forecast 73

68 DefenceIn forecast 73

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Fulham

Attack—

Defense risk—

Brentford

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Fulham

Brentford

0.75 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.25

1.00 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.75

1.10 xGVia Att/Def 1.33

1.56 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.45

-0.35 Goals minus xGContext -0.08

75% Scored inContext 100%

25% Clean sheetsContext 25%

9.00 ShotsContext 8.25

3.00 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.25

33% On target shareContext 39%

6.50 Shots in the boxContext 6.67

70% Box shareContext 77%

8% ConversionContext 15%

1.50 OffsidesContext 2.00

10.75 Shots allowedContext 14.00

4.00 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.00

3.00 BlocksContext 5.00

3.25 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.25

81% Save rateContext 56%

51% PossessionIn forecast 38%

427 PassesContext 291

355 Accurate passesContext 224

83% Pass accuracyContext 77%

6.82 Team ratingContext 6.72

16.00 FoulsContext 12.75

13.00 Fouls sufferedContext 9.00

1.75 Yellow cardsContext 2.00

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

This league season, per match · 4 and 4 games

1.00 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.90

1.50 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.60

1.10 xGVia Att/Def 1.73

1.53 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.24

-0.10 Goals minus xGContext +0.17

70% Scored inContext 100%

10% Clean sheetsContext 30%

12.50 ShotsContext 11.00

3.70 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.70

30% On target shareContext 43%

8.40 Shots in the boxContext 9.56

67% Box shareContext 83%

8% ConversionContext 17%

1.63 OffsidesContext 1.50

11.50 Shots allowedContext 14.20

4.80 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.70

3.30 BlocksContext 5.00

3.20 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.00

67% Save rateContext 64%

52% PossessionIn forecast 44%

429 PassesContext 345

363 Accurate passesContext 275

85% Pass accuracyContext 80%

6.89 Team ratingContext 6.94

14.00 FoulsContext 11.00

10.30 Fouls sufferedContext 8.80

1.80 Yellow cardsContext 2.40

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Fulham

Rest7.2 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel0 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Brentford

Rest7 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel13 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Fulham	Brentford
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 0
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	7.2Premier League 2025-2026, 13 Sep	7Premier League 2025-2026, 13 Sep
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	13 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	0 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	0 / 1 / 3	1 / 1 / 2
Next matchdays after this one	7.8	6.7

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Fulham Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

1B. Leno(G)

30K. Sessegnon 3C. Bassey 5J. Andersen 2K. Tete

16S. Berge 20S. Lukić

17A. Iwobi 24J. King 8H. Wilson

9Rodrigo Muniz

Brentford Confirmed XI

5-3-2

1C. Kelleher(G)

23K. Lewis-Potter 5E. Pinnock 22N. Collins 4S. van den Berg 33M. Kayode

24M. Damsgaard 6J. Henderson 18Y. Yarmoliuk

7K. Schade 9Thiago

+3 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Fulham Absences are shown before kick-off

Brentford Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Fulham+0.8 pp
Draw-0.2 pp
Brentford-0.6 pp

Home / Away this season

Fulham · Home 2.00points per game · 2 home games

W-D-L: 1-1-0
Scored: 1.00
Conceded: 0.50

Brentford · Away 0.00points per game · 2 away games

W-D-L: 0-0-2
Scored: 1.00
Conceded: 2.50

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 1 this season

Opponent	Fulham	Brentford
Chelsea	L 0–2 A	D 2–2 H
Points	0 of 3 · 0.00 per game	1 of 3 · 1.00 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 6 of 6 meetings

3 Fulham wins1 draws2 Brentford wins

Goals per game1.67 – 1.83 Over 2.583% Both scored67% Clean sheets17% · 33%

18 May 2025Brentford2–3Fulham
4 Nov 2024Fulham2–1Brentford
4 May 2024Brentford0–0Fulham
19 Aug 2023Fulham0–3Brentford
6 Mar 2023Brentford3–2Fulham
20 Aug 2022Fulham3–2Brentford

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Fulham	Brentford	Forecast
Scored per game	0.75	1.25
Conceded per game	1.00	1.75
Match goals	1.75	3.00	2.83
Over 1.5	75%	75%
Over 2.5	0%	75%	54%
Over 3.5	0%	50%
Both teams scored	50%	75%	57%
Clean sheets	25%	25%
Failed to score	25%	0%
Games	4	4

	Fulham	Brentford	Forecast
Scored per game	0.75	1.25
Conceded per game	1.00	1.75
Match goals	1.75	3.00	2.83
Over 1.5	75%	75%
Over 2.5	0%	75%	54%
Over 3.5	0%	50%
Both teams scored	50%	75%	57%
Clean sheets	25%	25%
Failed to score	25%	0%
Games	4	4

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Fulham	Brentford	League
Corners
Corners won	4.75	4.00
Corners conceded	4.75	5.75
Match total	9.50	9.75	9.73
Over 8.5	50% 2/4	75% 3/4
Over 9.5	50% 2/4	75% 3/4
Over 10.5	25% 1/4	50% 2/4
Cards
Cards	1.75	2.00
Opponent cards	2.00	2.00
Match total	3.75	4.00	3.70
Over 3.5	50% 2/4	50% 2/4
Over 4.5	25% 1/4	50% 2/4

	Fulham	Brentford	League
Corners
Corners won	3.89	4.40
Corners conceded	4.89	5.30
Match total	8.78	9.70	9.73
Over 8.5	44% 4/9	70% 7/10
Over 9.5	22% 2/9	60% 6/10
Over 10.5	11% 1/9	50% 5/10
Cards
Cards	1.80	2.40
Opponent cards	1.60	2.50
Match total	3.40	4.90	3.70
Over 3.5	50% 5/10	60% 6/10
Over 4.5	20% 2/10	60% 6/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Michael Oliver 182 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards3.59league 3.57

Red cards0.14league 0.15

Cards 5+34%league 41%

Fouls22.5league 22.5

Penalties0.29league 0.26

Home wins42%league 48%

Fulham6 with this referee

Record2-1-3 Cards · opp.2.2 · 1.8 Pens for · against1 · 1

L14 Apr 25A · Bournemouth0–12
L2 Apr 24A · Nottingham Forest1–30
W24 Feb 24A · Manchester United2–15
L2 Sep 23A · Manchester City1–54
D24 Feb 23H · Wolves1–12

Brentford10 with this referee

Record5-2-3 Cards · opp.1.8 · 1.5 Pens for · against1 · 2

D6 Apr 25H · Chelsea0–01
L21 Dec 24H · Nottingham Forest0–23
W30 Nov 24H · Leicester4–11
L17 Feb 24H · Liverpool1–42
L23 Sep 23H · Everton1–32

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.