Fulham
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Fulham were slight favourites.
Fulham were the stronger side on L90 Strength (63 vs 44). Fulham had 14 days of rest, Sunderland 13.9 and had to travel 387 km.
Away travel387 kmRest days14 · 13.9Matches / 14d1 · 1
Fulham56%
Draw24%
Sunderland21%
Fulham55%
Draw24%
Sunderland20%
Fulham57%
Draw23%
Sunderland20%
Fulham48%
Draw25%
Sunderland26%
Fulham55%
Draw24%
Sunderland21%
Over 2.5 56%
Both score 56%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (London)
No weather data yet
RefereeDarren England
- Cards per match 4.3
- Penalties per match 0.29
- Matches 105
Team strength
Fulham
Sunderland
63
L90 StrengthIn forecast
44
65
Current StrengthIn forecast
57
66
AttackIn forecast
62
68
DefenceIn forecast
59
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisSunderland
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
FulhamSunderland
1.09
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.27
1.45
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.91
1.00
xGVia Att/Def
0.95
1.34
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.21
+0.09
Goals minus xGContext
+0.32
73%
Scored inContext
73%
18%
Clean sheetsContext
36%
11.00
ShotsContext
10.09
3.80
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.00
31%
On target shareContext
27%
7.09
Shots in the boxContext
7.60
65%
Box shareContext
72%
10%
ConversionContext
13%
1.90
OffsidesContext
1.78
11.27
Shots allowedContext
13.27
4.36
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.45
3.09
BlocksContext
3.82
3.00
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.90
69%
Save rateContext
83%
50%
PossessionIn forecast
43%
433
PassesContext
378
360
Accurate passesContext
303
83%
Pass accuracyContext
80%
6.77
Team ratingContext
6.91
14.00
FoulsContext
9.55
11.18
Fouls sufferedContext
11.09
1.91
Yellow cardsContext
1.73
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.09
1.10
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.10
1.50
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.00
1.02
xGVia Att/Def
0.97
1.33
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.28
+0.08
Goals minus xGContext
+0.13
70%
Scored inContext
70%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
30%
11.40
ShotsContext
10.10
4.00
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
2.78
32%
On target shareContext
25%
7.30
Shots in the boxContext
7.44
64%
Box shareContext
71%
10%
ConversionContext
11%
1.89
OffsidesContext
1.78
11.40
Shots allowedContext
13.40
4.40
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.50
3.30
BlocksContext
3.60
3.00
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.89
68%
Save rateContext
81%
50%
PossessionIn forecast
44%
435
PassesContext
384
361
Accurate passesContext
308
83%
Pass accuracyContext
80%
6.78
Team ratingContext
6.89
13.90
FoulsContext
9.70
10.70
Fouls sufferedContext
11.20
1.80
Yellow cardsContext
1.90
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Fulham
Rest14 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km573 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Sunderland
Rest13.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel387 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Fulham |
Sunderland |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 14Premier League 2025-2026, 8 Nov | 13.9Premier League 2025-2026, 8 Nov |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 387 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 573 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 1 / 2 | 0 / 1 / 2 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 7.2 | 7 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Fulham
Confirmed XI
1B. Leno(G)
30K. Sessegnon
3C. Bassey
5J. Andersen
2K. Tete
17A. Iwobi
16S. Berge
22Kevin
24J. King
8H. Wilson
7R. Jiménez
Sunderland
Confirmed XI
22R. Roefs(G)
17Reinildo
6L. Geertruida
5D. Ballard
20N. Mukiele
32T. Hume
28E. Le Fée
27N. Sadiki
34G. Xhaka
25B. Traoré
18W. Isidor
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Fulham
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Sunderland
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Fulham-0.5 pp
- Draw+0.1 pp
- Sunderland+0.5 pp
Home / Away this season
Fulham · Home
2.00points per game · 5 home games
- W-D-L
- 3-1-1
- Scored
- 1.60
- Conceded
- 0.60
Sunderland · Away
1.40points per game · 5 away games
- W-D-L
- 2-1-2
- Scored
- 0.60
- Conceded
- 1.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 7 this season
| Opponent | Fulham | Sunderland |
|---|---|---|
| Everton | L 0–2 A | D 1–1 H |
| Wolves | W 3–0 H | W 2–0 H |
| Arsenal | L 0–1 H | D 2–2 H |
| Aston Villa | L 1–3 A | D 1–1 H |
| Brentford | W 3–1 H | W 2–1 H |
| Chelsea | L 0–2 A | W 2–1 A |
| Manchester United | D 1–1 H | L 0–2 A |
| Points | 7 of 21 · 1.00 per game | 12 of 21 · 1.71 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head
No earlier meetings in our data.
Goals & match trends
| Fulham | Sunderland | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.09 | 1.27 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.45 | 0.91 | |
| Match goals | 2.55 | 2.18 | 2.94 |
| Over 1.5 | 82% | 82% | |
| Over 2.5 | 45% | 36% | 56% |
| Over 3.5 | 27% | 9% | |
| Both teams scored | 55% | 45% | 56% |
| Clean sheets | 18% | 36% | |
| Failed to score | 27% | 27% | |
| Games | 11 | 11 |
| Fulham | Sunderland | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.10 | 1.10 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.50 | 1.00 | |
| Match goals | 2.60 | 2.10 | 2.94 |
| Over 1.5 | 80% | 80% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 30% | 56% |
| Over 3.5 | 30% | 10% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 50% | 56% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 30% | |
| Failed to score | 30% | 30% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Fulham | Sunderland | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.09 | 3.27 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.18 | 4.36 | |
| Match total | 10.27 | 7.63 | 9.92 |
| Over 8.5 | 64% 7/11 | 36% 4/11 | |
| Over 9.5 | 64% 7/11 | 36% 4/11 | |
| Over 10.5 | 45% 5/11 | 27% 3/11 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.91 | 1.82 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.45 | 1.27 | |
| Match total | 3.36 | 3.09 | 3.73 |
| Over 3.5 | 55% 6/11 | 45% 5/11 | |
| Over 4.5 | 36% 4/11 | 36% 4/11 | |
| Fulham | Sunderland | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.30 | 3.10 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.30 | 4.10 | |
| Match total | 10.60 | 7.20 | 9.92 |
| Over 8.5 | 70% 7/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 70% 7/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 50% 5/10 | 20% 2/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.80 | 2.00 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.30 | 1.30 | |
| Match total | 3.10 | 3.30 | 3.73 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 5/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 30% 3/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Darren England 105 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.20league 3.63
Red cards0.10league 0.11
Cards 5+41%league 40%
Fouls22.2league 22.0
Penalties0.29league 0.18
Home wins44%league 52%
Fulham8 with this referee
Record2-1-5
Cards · opp.2.6 · 1.4
Pens for · against2 · 1
Reds2
- L10 May 25H · Everton1–31
- L19 Oct 24H · Aston Villa1–34
- W10 Feb 24H · Bournemouth3–11
- W18 Feb 23A · Brighton1–05
- L5 Nov 22A · Manchester City1–24
Sunderland1 with this referee
Record0-1-0
Cards · opp.3.0 · 3.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- D4 Feb 24A · Middlesbrough1–13
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Fulham11 games · scored 12 · conceded 16
2
0-15
2
16-30
2
3
31-45
2
6
46-60
4
61-75
2
5
76-90
Sunderland11 games · scored 14 · conceded 10
3
0-15
2
16-30
2
1
31-45
1
2
46-60
3
2
61-75
6
2
76-90
Fulham10 games · scored 11 · conceded 15
2
0-15
2
16-30
2
3
31-45
2
5
46-60
4
61-75
1
5
76-90
Sunderland10 games · scored 11 · conceded 10
3
0-15
2
16-30
2
1
31-45
1
2
46-60
1
2
61-75
5
2
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
