Belgian Pro League Knockout phase Sun, Dec 27 · 15:00 Cegeka Arena, Genk
Genk 7th · 12 pts · 8 played
VS— Compare
Lommel United 10th · 11 pts · 8 played
Get full prediction oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →
Our take

No forecast yet.

Forecasts are published up to 21 days before kick-off.

Away travel32 kmRest days7.8 · 7.8Matches / 14d1 · 1
Real contextStrength only
Genk—%
Draw—%
Lommel United—%
Expected goals — – — No forecast for this match yet. Forecasts are published up to 21 days ahead.
Weather (Genk)

Forecast from 12 Dec

Referee—Not appointed yet

Key insights

Automatic descriptive highlights for Genk and Lommel United. These describe recorded performance and do not change the match forecast. Each metric is ordered within its own type; types alternate to keep the selection varied. Up to six distinct signals per category, with at most three per team.

Result statistics require at least five known completed matches. They use the last ten recorded results across all competitions, or the last eight away results. Future, special and invalid results are excluded; missing results can interrupt real-world sequences, so streaks refer to recorded results. 10+ means at least ten within the window.

Bars run oldest to newest. Height shows goals scored, or goals conceded in conceding cards, on the same 0–6 scale. Six or more goals use maximum height; zero retains a small marker. Colour shows the result: teal = win, amber = draw, red = loss. In event and streak cards, solid bars mark the event and faded bars mark its absence. Hover for the date, full score and event. xG and points cards compare their two inputs, not a fabricated history.

xG Difference uses the observed pre-match Playing style averages already shown for this fixture. Window size is not xG coverage, and the two averages can have different denominators. Result statistics use completed matches recorded up to now; their window can differ from the Playing style profile. Season points and xPts are not included here.

Headlines

Headlines insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Attack

Attack insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Defence

Defence insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Streaks

Not enough recorded data for this category yet.

Team strength

GenkLommel United
— L90 StrengthIn forecast —
44 Current StrengthIn forecast 36
46 AttackIn forecast 32
50 DefenceIn forecast 41
49 Form indexContext 47
In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Genk

Attack—
Defense risk—

Lommel United

Attack—
Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

GenkLommel United
2.00 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.13
1.50 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.13
2.18 xGVia Att/Def 1.13
0.89 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.15
-0.18 Goals minus xGContext +0.00
75% Scored inContext 50%
38% Clean sheetsContext 38%
13.88 ShotsContext 10.75
5.00 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.00
36% On target shareContext 28%
9.38 Shots in the boxContext 7.00
66% Box shareContext 66%
14% ConversionContext 11%
2.83 OffsidesContext 2.33
13.50 Shots allowedContext 19.25
3.75 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.63
5.29 BlocksContext 6.50
2.50 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.50
67% Save rateContext 76%
54% PossessionIn forecast 44%
499 PassesContext 407
432 Accurate passesContext 339
87% Pass accuracyContext 83%
6.97 Team ratingContext 6.86
11.25 FoulsContext 7.00
10.38 Fouls sufferedContext 10.75
1.88 Yellow cardsContext 1.00
0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00
This league season, per match · 8 and 8 games
1.80 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.20
1.20 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.10
2.14 xGVia Att/Def 1.13
0.87 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.15
-0.34 Goals minus xGContext +0.07
70% Scored inContext 50%
50% Clean sheetsContext 40%
15.50 ShotsContext 10.50
5.80 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.75
37% On target shareContext 29%
10.50 Shots in the boxContext 7.00
68% Box shareContext 66%
12% ConversionContext 11%
2.75 OffsidesContext 2.33
13.40 Shots allowedContext 18.80
3.60 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.40
5.11 BlocksContext 5.80
2.60 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.30
72% Save rateContext 75%
54% PossessionIn forecast 45%
497 PassesContext 403
429 Accurate passesContext 331
86% Pass accuracyContext 82%
7.01 Team ratingContext 6.88
11.30 FoulsContext 7.20
10.20 Fouls sufferedContext 11.40
1.70 Yellow cardsContext 1.20
0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00
Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games
In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Genk
Rest7.8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km193 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 49 · 8 pts vs 8.1 for an average club · -0.4 vs expected
  • W10 OctH · Kortrijk3–02.4 xPts
  • L20 SepA · Club Brugge KV0–30.9 xPts
  • D13 SepH · Gent1–11.7 xPts
  • D6 SepA · Anderlecht0–01.3 xPts
  • W28 AugH · SK Beveren4–02.1 xPts
Lommel United
Rest7.8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel32 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 47 · 7 pts vs 7.3 for an average club · +0.9 vs expected
  • W9 OctA · SK Beveren3–11.4 xPts
  • D19 SepH · KV Mechelen0–01.9 xPts
  • L12 SepA · Union St. Gilloise0–50.6 xPts
  • L4 SepH · Club Brugge KV0–11.0 xPts
  • W29 AugA · Cercle Brugge1–01.2 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery
Genk Lommel United
Schedule loaddescriptive index, contextLow · 0Low · 0
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecastNoNo
Rest dayssince last match7.8Belgian Pro League 2026-2027, 19 Dec7.8Belgian Pro League 2026-2027, 19 Dec
Travel to venuefrom home stadium0 km32 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways193 km0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days0 / 1 / 20 / 1 / 2
Next matchdays after this one2120

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Genk Last XI · not confirmed
4-3-3 · vs Kortrijk (H) 3–0, 10 Oct
28L. Brughmans(G)
18J. Kayembe 44J. Kongolo 6M. Smets 20K. Amaro
8B. Heynen 38D. Heymans 4B. Tahirović
32N. Adedeji-Sternberg 17R. Durosinmi 10J. Ito
Lommel United Last XI · not confirmed
4-2-3-1 · vs SK Beveren (A) 3–1, 9 Oct
23M. Pieklak(G)
4S. Adewoye 8Nicolas Rommens 3T. Eyoma 2J. van Duiven
44I. Dada-Mascoll 15Lucas Schoofs
11S. Appuah 10Tom Reyners 7J. Talvitie
9D. Konadu

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences
Genk Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
Lommel United Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
Total impact vs full squads —

Home / Away this season

Genk · Home 2.50points per game · 4 home games
W-D-L
3-1-0
Scored
2.75
Conceded
0.75
Lommel United · Away 1.75points per game · 4 away games
W-D-L
2-1-1
Scored
1.25
Conceded
1.75

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 3 this season

OpponentGenkLommel United
Club Brugge KV L 0–3 A L 0–1 H
SK Beveren W 4–0 H W 3–1 A
KVC Westerlo W 3–2 H W 4–0 H
Points6 of 9 · 2.00 per game6 of 9 · 2.00 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head

No earlier meetings in our data.

Goals & match trends

GenkLommel UnitedForecast
Scored per game 2.001.13
Conceded per game 1.501.13
Match goals 3.502.25
Over 1.5 88%50%
Over 2.5 75%38%
Over 3.5 38%38%
Both teams scored 50%25%
Clean sheets 38%38%
Failed to score 25%50%
Games88
GenkLommel UnitedForecast
Scored per game 2.201.13
Conceded per game 2.201.13
Match goals 4.402.25
Over 1.5 90%50%
Over 2.5 80%38%
Over 3.5 50%38%
Both teams scored 60%25%
Clean sheets 30%38%
Failed to score 20%50%
Games108

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

GenkLommel UnitedLeague
Corners
Corners won3.883.50
Corners conceded5.887.88
Match total9.7611.3810.01
Over 8.588% 7/888% 7/8
Over 9.550% 4/875% 6/8
Over 10.525% 2/863% 5/8
Cards
Cards1.881.00
Opponent cards2.001.63
Match total3.882.633.36
Over 3.550% 4/825% 2/8
Over 4.538% 3/825% 2/8
GenkLommel UnitedLeague
Corners
Corners won4.603.60
Corners conceded5.407.60
Match total10.0011.2010.01
Over 8.580% 8/1090% 9/10
Over 9.550% 5/1080% 8/10
Over 10.530% 3/1060% 6/10
Cards
Cards1.701.20
Opponent cards1.801.80
Match total3.503.003.36
Over 3.540% 4/1040% 4/10
Over 4.530% 3/1030% 3/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Goal timing

Genk8 games · scored 16 · conceded 12
3 4 0-15
1 1 16-30
5 31-45
3 1 46-60
3 1 61-75
1 5 76-90
Lommel United7 games · scored 9 · conceded 4
0-15
3 16-30
1 2 31-45
3 46-60
1 2 61-75
1 76-90
Genk10 games · scored 18 · conceded 12
3 4 0-15
2 1 16-30
6 31-45
3 1 46-60
3 1 61-75
1 5 76-90
Lommel United9 games · scored 12 · conceded 6
0-15
3 16-30
1 3 31-45
4 46-60
1 2 61-75
3 1 76-90

scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.

Scenario lab Soon

Real contextLOAD90 forecast: EloLambda plus playing style (possession) and High Congestion.
Pure EloLambdaControl forecast without the LOAD90 factors, as on eScored.
Strength onlyElo and home edge only.
Full squadsBoth teams with every player available.
Neutral venueRemove home advantage.

Next fixtures Belgian Pro League

View all fixtures →
Club Brugge KV Charleroi Dec 2612:30 Kortrijk Cercle Brugge Dec 2615:00 OH Leuven KVC Westerlo Dec 2617:15 Standard Liege Union St. Gilloise Dec 2619:45 RAAL La Louvière SK Beveren Dec 2619:45 Anderlecht St. Truiden Dec 2712:30 Genk Lommel United Dec 2715:00 Gent Antwerp Dec 2717:30 KV Mechelen Zulte Waregem Dec 2718:15