Belgian Pro League Knockout phase Sat, Dec 26 · 17:15 King Power at Den Dreef Stadion, Heverlee
OH Leuven 15th · 5 pts · 8 played
VS— Compare
KVC Westerlo 6th · 13 pts · 8 played
Get full prediction oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →
Our take

No forecast yet.

Forecasts are published up to 21 days before kick-off.

Away travel29 kmRest days7.9 · 6Matches / 14d1 · 2
Real contextStrength only
OH Leuven—%
Draw—%
KVC Westerlo—%
Expected goals — – — No forecast for this match yet. Forecasts are published up to 21 days ahead.
Weather (Heverlee)

Forecast from 11 Dec

Referee—Not appointed yet

Key insights

Automatic descriptive highlights for OH Leuven and KVC Westerlo. These describe recorded performance and do not change the match forecast. Each metric is ordered within its own type; types alternate to keep the selection varied. Up to six distinct signals per category, with at most three per team.

Result statistics require at least five known completed matches. They use the last ten recorded results across all competitions, or the last eight away results. Future, special and invalid results are excluded; missing results can interrupt real-world sequences, so streaks refer to recorded results. 10+ means at least ten within the window.

Bars run oldest to newest. Height shows goals scored, or goals conceded in conceding cards, on the same 0–6 scale. Six or more goals use maximum height; zero retains a small marker. Colour shows the result: teal = win, amber = draw, red = loss. In event and streak cards, solid bars mark the event and faded bars mark its absence. Hover for the date, full score and event. xG and points cards compare their two inputs, not a fabricated history.

xG Difference uses the observed pre-match Playing style averages already shown for this fixture. Window size is not xG coverage, and the two averages can have different denominators. Result statistics use completed matches recorded up to now; their window can differ from the Playing style profile. Season points and xPts are not included here.

Headlines

Headlines insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Attack

Attack insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Defence

Defence insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Streaks

Streaks insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Team strength

OH LeuvenKVC Westerlo
— L90 StrengthIn forecast —
18 Current StrengthIn forecast 33
17 AttackIn forecast 42
30 DefenceIn forecast 32
25 Form indexContext 83
In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

OH Leuven

Attack—
Defense risk—

KVC Westerlo

Attack—
Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

OH LeuvenKVC Westerlo
0.75 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 2.50
1.75 Goals concededVia Att/Def 2.13
1.07 xGVia Att/Def 1.37
2.38 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.93
-0.32 Goals minus xGContext +1.13
63% Scored inContext 88%
13% Clean sheetsContext 25%
12.75 ShotsContext 14.88
2.38 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 5.38
19% On target shareContext 36%
8.50 Shots in the boxContext 10.63
69% Box shareContext 72%
6% ConversionContext 17%
1.50 OffsidesContext 1.17
14.75 Shots allowedContext 14.50
4.50 On target allowedVia Att/Def 5.13
5.14 BlocksContext 2.38
3.14 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.00
63% Save rateContext 59%
48% PossessionIn forecast 51%
418 PassesContext 454
329 Accurate passesContext 378
79% Pass accuracyContext 83%
6.72 Team ratingContext 6.81
11.25 FoulsContext 13.38
11.38 Fouls sufferedContext 10.50
2.00 Yellow cardsContext 1.25
0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00
This league season, per match · 8 and 8 games
0.70 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 2.10
1.70 Goals concededVia Att/Def 2.10
1.01 xGVia Att/Def 1.21
2.06 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.95
-0.31 Goals minus xGContext +0.89
60% Scored inContext 80%
10% Clean sheetsContext 20%
12.70 ShotsContext 15.00
2.60 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.80
21% On target shareContext 32%
8.60 Shots in the boxContext 10.20
70% Box shareContext 68%
6% ConversionContext 14%
2.00 OffsidesContext 1.14
15.00 Shots allowedContext 14.50
4.80 On target allowedVia Att/Def 5.40
4.78 BlocksContext 2.70
3.44 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.30
66% Save rateContext 61%
47% PossessionIn forecast 52%
402 PassesContext 459
318 Accurate passesContext 384
79% Pass accuracyContext 84%
6.74 Team ratingContext 6.77
10.90 FoulsContext 12.90
11.40 Fouls sufferedContext 10.80
1.60 Yellow cardsContext 1.40
0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00
Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games
In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

OH Leuven
Rest7.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km86 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 25 · 5 pts vs 8.0 for an average club · +0.3 vs expected
  • D11 OctA · Union St. Gilloise1–10.3 xPts
  • W19 SepH · RAAL La Louvière2–01.5 xPts
  • D12 SepH · Cercle Brugge1–11.3 xPts
  • L6 SepA · SK Beveren0–31.1 xPts
  • L3 SepA · Gent0–10.6 xPts
KVC Westerlo
Rest6 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel29 km237 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 83 · 13 pts vs 8.6 for an average club · +6.9 vs expected
  • W11 OctH · Antwerp5–11.8 xPts
  • W20 SepA · St. Truiden2–00.9 xPts
  • W12 SepH · Standard Liege4–21.4 xPts
  • W5 SepA · KV Mechelen4–01.0 xPts
  • D30 AugH · Zulte Waregem2–21.0 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery
OH Leuven KVC Westerlo
Schedule loaddescriptive index, contextLow · 0Low · 0
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecastNoNo
Rest dayssince last match7.9Belgian Pro League 2026-2027, 18 Dec6Belgian Pro League 2026-2027, 20 Dec
Travel to venuefrom home stadium0 km29 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways86 km237 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days0 / 1 / 21 / 2 / 2
Next matchdays after this one2221.1

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

OH Leuven Last XI · not confirmed
3-4-3 · vs Union St. Gilloise (A) 1–1, 11 Oct
13K. Vroman(G)
34R. Nyakossi 3Noë Dussenne 5J. Lawrence
99D. Opoku 8S. Schrijvers 6W. George 27Óscar Gil
21W. Balikwisha 18Robin Mirisola 24Ł. Łakomy
KVC Westerlo Last XI · not confirmed
4-2-3-1 · vs Antwerp (H) 5–1, 11 Oct
99A. Jungdal(G)
28Dylan Ourega 4A. Lapage 5Seiji Kimura 2L. Flø
14C. Sandra 45I. Fofana
7Shunsuke Saito 13I. Sakamoto 39T. Van den Keybus
9N. Bassette

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences
OH Leuven Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
KVC Westerlo Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
Total impact vs full squads —

Home / Away this season

OH Leuven · Home 1.00points per game · 4 home games
W-D-L
1-1-2
Scored
1.00
Conceded
1.50
KVC Westerlo · Away 1.50points per game · 4 away games
W-D-L
2-0-2
Scored
2.00
Conceded
1.75

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 2 this season

OpponentOH LeuvenKVC Westerlo
Union St. Gilloise D 1–1 A L 1–5 H
Standard Liege L 1–2 H W 4–2 H
Points1 of 6 · 0.50 per game3 of 6 · 1.50 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 6 of 6 meetings

1 OH Leuven wins1 draws4 KVC Westerlo wins
Goals per game1.00 – 1.67 Over 2.533% Both scored17% Clean sheets17% · 67%
  • 2 May 2026KVC Westerlo3–3OH Leuven
  • 21 Apr 2026OH Leuven0–2KVC Westerlo
  • 7 Mar 2026OH Leuven0–1KVC Westerlo
  • 5 Oct 2025KVC Westerlo2–0OH Leuven
  • 3 Feb 2024KVC Westerlo0–3OH Leuven
  • 4 Nov 2023OH Leuven0–2KVC Westerlo

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

OH LeuvenKVC WesterloForecast
Scored per game 0.752.50
Conceded per game 1.752.13
Match goals 2.504.63
Over 1.5 88%100%
Over 2.5 50%88%
Over 3.5 13%88%
Both teams scored 50%63%
Clean sheets 13%25%
Failed to score 38%13%
Games88
OH LeuvenKVC WesterloForecast
Scored per game 0.902.10
Conceded per game 1.401.90
Match goals 2.304.00
Over 1.5 80%90%
Over 2.5 40%80%
Over 3.5 10%70%
Both teams scored 40%60%
Clean sheets 30%30%
Failed to score 30%20%
Games1010

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

OH LeuvenKVC WesterloLeague
Corners
Corners won3.253.50
Corners conceded8.255.75
Match total11.509.2510.01
Over 8.575% 6/875% 6/8
Over 9.563% 5/838% 3/8
Over 10.563% 5/825% 2/8
Cards
Cards2.131.25
Opponent cards1.631.63
Match total3.762.883.36
Over 3.575% 6/838% 3/8
Over 4.525% 2/838% 3/8
OH LeuvenKVC WesterloLeague
Corners
Corners won3.603.90
Corners conceded8.205.30
Match total11.809.2010.01
Over 8.570% 7/1070% 7/10
Over 9.560% 6/1040% 4/10
Over 10.560% 6/1030% 3/10
Cards
Cards1.701.40
Opponent cards1.501.80
Match total3.203.203.36
Over 3.560% 6/1050% 5/10
Over 4.520% 2/1040% 4/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Goal timing

OH Leuven8 games · scored 6 · conceded 14
1 0-15
2 2 16-30
2 31-45
3 46-60
1 3 61-75
1 5 76-90
KVC Westerlo8 games · scored 20 · conceded 17
6 0-15
1 4 16-30
2 3 31-45
4 2 46-60
2 4 61-75
5 4 76-90
OH Leuven10 games · scored 7 · conceded 17
1 0-15
3 3 16-30
2 1 31-45
4 46-60
1 3 61-75
1 5 76-90
KVC Westerlo10 games · scored 21 · conceded 21
7 0-15
1 5 16-30
2 5 31-45
4 2 46-60
2 5 61-75
5 4 76-90

scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.

Scenario lab Soon

Real contextLOAD90 forecast: EloLambda plus playing style (possession) and High Congestion.
Pure EloLambdaControl forecast without the LOAD90 factors, as on eScored.
Strength onlyElo and home edge only.
Full squadsBoth teams with every player available.
Neutral venueRemove home advantage.

Next fixtures Belgian Pro League

View all fixtures →
Club Brugge KV Charleroi Dec 2612:30 Kortrijk Cercle Brugge Dec 2615:00 OH Leuven KVC Westerlo Dec 2617:15 Standard Liege Union St. Gilloise Dec 2619:45 RAAL La Louvière SK Beveren Dec 2619:45 Anderlecht St. Truiden Dec 2712:30 Genk Lommel United Dec 2715:00 Gent Antwerp Dec 2717:30 KV Mechelen Zulte Waregem Dec 2718:15