Belgian Pro League Knockout phase Sat, Dec 26 · 19:45 Stade Maurice Dufrasne, Luik
Standard Liege 9th · 11 pts · 8 played
VS— Compare
Union St. Gilloise 4th · 20 pts · 8 played
Get full prediction oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →
Our take

No forecast yet.

Forecasts are published up to 21 days before kick-off.

Away travel89 kmRest days6.3 · 6.1Matches / 14d2 · 2
Real contextStrength only
Standard Liege—%
Draw—%
Union St. Gilloise—%
Expected goals — – — No forecast for this match yet. Forecasts are published up to 21 days ahead.
Weather (Luik)

Forecast from 11 Dec

Referee—Not appointed yet

Key insights

Automatic descriptive highlights for Standard Liege and Union St. Gilloise. These describe recorded performance and do not change the match forecast. Each metric is ordered within its own type; types alternate to keep the selection varied. Up to six distinct signals per category, with at most three per team.

Result statistics require at least five known completed matches. They use the last ten recorded results across all competitions, or the last eight away results. Future, special and invalid results are excluded; missing results can interrupt real-world sequences, so streaks refer to recorded results. 10+ means at least ten within the window.

Bars run oldest to newest. Height shows goals scored, or goals conceded in conceding cards, on the same 0–6 scale. Six or more goals use maximum height; zero retains a small marker. Colour shows the result: teal = win, amber = draw, red = loss. In event and streak cards, solid bars mark the event and faded bars mark its absence. Hover for the date, full score and event. xG and points cards compare their two inputs, not a fabricated history.

xG Difference uses the observed pre-match Playing style averages already shown for this fixture. Window size is not xG coverage, and the two averages can have different denominators. Result statistics use completed matches recorded up to now; their window can differ from the Playing style profile. Season points and xPts are not included here.

Headlines

Headlines insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Attack

Attack insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Defence

Defence insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Streaks

Streaks insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Team strength

Standard LiegeUnion St. Gilloise
— L90 StrengthIn forecast —
33 Current StrengthIn forecast 70
29 AttackIn forecast 62
29 DefenceIn forecast 74
30 Form indexContext 73
In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Standard Liege

Attack—
Defense risk—

Union St. Gilloise

Attack—
Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Standard LiegeUnion St. Gilloise
1.63 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 2.75
1.63 Goals concededVia Att/Def 0.50
1.61 xGVia Att/Def 1.32
1.72 xG allowedVia Att/Def 0.98
+0.02 Goals minus xGContext +1.43
88% Scored inContext 88%
25% Clean sheetsContext 63%
13.50 ShotsContext 16.88
4.88 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 7.13
36% On target shareContext 42%
9.75 Shots in the boxContext 13.50
69% Box shareContext 78%
12% ConversionContext 16%
2.43 OffsidesContext 2.75
14.50 Shots allowedContext 11.13
4.38 On target allowedVia Att/Def 2.75
4.29 BlocksContext 4.13
2.86 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.43
61% Save rateContext 81%
52% PossessionIn forecast 53%
459 PassesContext 458
365 Accurate passesContext 377
79% Pass accuracyContext 82%
6.76 Team ratingContext 7.14
9.88 FoulsContext 11.38
10.88 Fouls sufferedContext 11.75
1.13 Yellow cardsContext 1.75
0.13 Red cardsContext 0.13
This league season, per match · 8 and 8 games
1.50 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 2.30
1.60 Goals concededVia Att/Def 0.70
1.58 xGVia Att/Def 1.40
1.67 xG allowedVia Att/Def 0.96
-0.08 Goals minus xGContext +0.90
80% Scored inContext 90%
20% Clean sheetsContext 60%
12.70 ShotsContext 17.30
4.80 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 7.00
38% On target shareContext 41%
9.30 Shots in the boxContext 13.20
70% Box shareContext 75%
12% ConversionContext 13%
2.33 OffsidesContext 2.78
15.20 Shots allowedContext 11.90
4.30 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.40
4.67 BlocksContext 3.90
2.78 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.00
61% Save rateContext 75%
50% PossessionIn forecast 51%
433 PassesContext 461
341 Accurate passesContext 379
79% Pass accuracyContext 82%
6.76 Team ratingContext 7.12
10.10 FoulsContext 11.90
10.90 Fouls sufferedContext 11.90
1.40 Yellow cardsContext 1.80
0.10 Red cardsContext 0.10
Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games
In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Standard Liege
Rest6.3 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km306 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 30 · 6 pts vs 8.4 for an average club · -1.0 vs expected
  • L11 OctH · Charleroi0–11.4 xPts
  • L18 SepA · Gent1–20.9 xPts
  • L12 SepA · KVC Westerlo2–41.4 xPts
  • W5 SepH · Antwerp1–01.7 xPts
  • W29 AugA · OH Leuven2–11.6 xPts
Union St. Gilloise
Rest6.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel89 km43 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 73 · 11 pts vs 8.2 for an average club · +0.8 vs expected
  • D15 OctH · Real Sociedad1–11.9 xPts
  • D11 OctH · OH Leuven1–12.7 xPts
  • W20 SepA · Antwerp2–02.1 xPts
  • W17 SepA · Plzen3–01.4 xPts
  • W12 SepH · Lommel United5–02.2 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery
Standard Liege Union St. Gilloise
Schedule loaddescriptive index, contextLow · 0Low · 0
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecastNoNo
Rest dayssince last match6.3Belgian Pro League 2026-2027, 20 Dec6.1Belgian Pro League 2026-2027, 20 Dec
Travel to venuefrom home stadium0 km89 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways306 km43 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days1 / 2 / 31 / 2 / 4
Next matchdays after this one21.720.9

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Standard Liege Last XI · not confirmed
4-3-3 · vs Charleroi (H) 0–1, 11 Oct
1M. Epolo(G)
3Gustav Mortensen 25I. Hautekiet 20I. Karamoko 13M. Fossey
84R. Touzghar 22A. Trouillet 94C. Nielsen
11A. Abid 10D. Eckert Ayensa 17Bernard Nguene
Union St. Gilloise Last XI · not confirmed
3-1-4-2 · vs Real Sociedad (H) 1–1, 15 Oct
12H. Koffi(G)
55Nikki Havenaar 29M. Sylla 4N. Chibani
6K. Van de Perre
11G. da Silva Carvalho 28D. Olaru 23B. Zeneli 27L. Patris
38R. Mofokeng 9Mateo Biondic

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences
Standard Liege Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
Union St. Gilloise Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
Total impact vs full squads —

Home / Away this season

Standard Liege · Home 1.75points per game · 4 home games
W-D-L
2-1-1
Scored
1.25
Conceded
0.75
Union St. Gilloise · Away 3.00points per game · 4 away games
W-D-L
4-0-0
Scored
3.25
Conceded
0.75

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 4 this season

OpponentStandard LiegeUnion St. Gilloise
Charleroi L 0–1 H W 3–2 A
KVC Westerlo L 2–4 A W 5–1 A
Antwerp W 1–0 H W 2–0 A
OH Leuven W 2–1 A D 1–1 H
Points6 of 12 · 1.50 per game10 of 12 · 2.50 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 4 of 4 meetings

0 Standard Liege wins1 draws3 Union St. Gilloise wins
Goals per game0.50 – 1.75 Over 2.550% Both scored50% Clean sheets0% · 50%
  • 14 Feb 2026Standard Liege1–1Union St. Gilloise
  • 16 Aug 2025Union St. Gilloise3–0Standard Liege
  • 25 Feb 2024Union St. Gilloise2–1Standard Liege
  • 4 Aug 2023Standard Liege0–1Union St. Gilloise

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

Standard LiegeUnion St. GilloiseForecast
Scored per game 1.632.75
Conceded per game 1.630.50
Match goals 3.253.25
Over 1.5 75%88%
Over 2.5 63%63%
Over 3.5 38%38%
Both teams scored 63%38%
Clean sheets 25%63%
Failed to score 13%13%
Games88
Standard LiegeUnion St. GilloiseForecast
Scored per game 1.402.30
Conceded per game 1.400.70
Match goals 2.803.00
Over 1.5 70%90%
Over 2.5 50%60%
Over 3.5 30%30%
Both teams scored 60%40%
Clean sheets 30%60%
Failed to score 20%10%
Games1010

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

Standard LiegeUnion St. GilloiseLeague
Corners
Corners won6.005.88
Corners conceded5.003.25
Match total11.009.1310.01
Over 8.563% 5/863% 5/8
Over 9.550% 4/850% 4/8
Over 10.550% 4/838% 3/8
Cards
Cards1.251.88
Opponent cards1.251.88
Match total2.503.763.36
Over 3.525% 2/850% 4/8
Over 4.50% 0/825% 2/8
Standard LiegeUnion St. GilloiseLeague
Corners
Corners won5.504.80
Corners conceded5.403.90
Match total10.908.7010.01
Over 8.560% 6/1050% 5/10
Over 9.550% 5/1050% 5/10
Over 10.550% 5/1040% 4/10
Cards
Cards1.502.00
Opponent cards1.701.90
Match total3.203.903.36
Over 3.540% 4/1060% 6/10
Over 4.510% 1/1030% 3/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Goal timing

Standard Liege8 games · scored 13 · conceded 13
2 1 0-15
1 16-30
2 3 31-45
1 2 46-60
6 1 61-75
1 6 76-90
Union St. Gilloise7 games · scored 17 · conceded 4
1 1 0-15
2 2 16-30
3 1 31-45
4 46-60
3 61-75
4 76-90
Standard Liege10 games · scored 15 · conceded 16
2 2 0-15
2 16-30
3 3 31-45
1 2 46-60
6 2 61-75
1 7 76-90
Union St. Gilloise9 games · scored 18 · conceded 7
1 0-15
2 2 16-30
4 1 31-45
4 2 46-60
3 61-75
4 2 76-90

scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.

Scenario lab Soon

Real contextLOAD90 forecast: EloLambda plus playing style (possession) and High Congestion.
Pure EloLambdaControl forecast without the LOAD90 factors, as on eScored.
Strength onlyElo and home edge only.
Full squadsBoth teams with every player available.
Neutral venueRemove home advantage.

Next fixtures Belgian Pro League

View all fixtures →
Club Brugge KV Charleroi Dec 2612:30 Kortrijk Cercle Brugge Dec 2615:00 OH Leuven KVC Westerlo Dec 2617:15 Standard Liege Union St. Gilloise Dec 2619:45 RAAL La Louvière SK Beveren Dec 2619:45 Anderlecht St. Truiden Dec 2712:30 Genk Lommel United Dec 2715:00 Gent Antwerp Dec 2717:30 KV Mechelen Zulte Waregem Dec 2718:15