Belgian Pro League Knockout phase Sun, Dec 27 · 12:30 Lotto Park, Brussel
Anderlecht 5th · 16 pts · 8 played
VS— Compare
St. Truiden 12th · 8 pts · 8 played
Get full prediction oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →
Our take

No forecast yet.

Forecasts are published up to 21 days before kick-off.

Rest days7 · 6.9Matches / 14d2 · 2
Real contextStrength only
Anderlecht—%
Draw—%
St. Truiden—%
Expected goals — – — No forecast for this match yet. Forecasts are published up to 21 days ahead.
Weather (Brussel)

Forecast from 12 Dec

Referee—Not appointed yet

Key insights

Automatic descriptive highlights for Anderlecht and St. Truiden. These describe recorded performance and do not change the match forecast. Each metric is ordered within its own type; types alternate to keep the selection varied. Up to six distinct signals per category, with at most three per team.

Result statistics require at least five known completed matches. They use the last ten recorded results across all competitions, or the last eight away results. Future, special and invalid results are excluded; missing results can interrupt real-world sequences, so streaks refer to recorded results. 10+ means at least ten within the window.

Bars run oldest to newest. Height shows goals scored, or goals conceded in conceding cards, on the same 0–6 scale. Six or more goals use maximum height; zero retains a small marker. Colour shows the result: teal = win, amber = draw, red = loss. In event and streak cards, solid bars mark the event and faded bars mark its absence. Hover for the date, full score and event. xG and points cards compare their two inputs, not a fabricated history.

xG Difference uses the observed pre-match Playing style averages already shown for this fixture. Window size is not xG coverage, and the two averages can have different denominators. Result statistics use completed matches recorded up to now; their window can differ from the Playing style profile. Season points and xPts are not included here.

Headlines

Headlines insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Attack

Attack insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Defence

Defence insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Streaks

Streaks insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Team strength

AnderlechtSt. Truiden
— L90 StrengthIn forecast —
43 Current StrengthIn forecast 35
37 AttackIn forecast 37
52 DefenceIn forecast 32
59 Form indexContext 11
In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Anderlecht

Attack—
Defense risk—

St. Truiden

Attack—
Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

AnderlechtSt. Truiden
1.13 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.88
0.75 Goals concededVia Att/Def 2.00
1.39 xGVia Att/Def 2.01
0.87 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.75
-0.26 Goals minus xGContext -0.13
63% Scored inContext 63%
50% Clean sheetsContext 13%
15.00 ShotsContext 17.00
4.75 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 5.14
32% On target shareContext 27%
9.50 Shots in the boxContext 11.88
61% Box shareContext 68%
8% ConversionContext 11%
1.43 OffsidesContext 1.86
9.88 Shots allowedContext 13.63
3.63 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.88
2.00 BlocksContext 3.00
2.75 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.38
76% Save rateContext 69%
62% PossessionIn forecast 56%
560 PassesContext 520
482 Accurate passesContext 437
86% Pass accuracyContext 84%
6.99 Team ratingContext 6.82
12.38 FoulsContext 10.38
11.50 Fouls sufferedContext 9.63
2.13 Yellow cardsContext 2.00
0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00
This league season, per match · 8 and 8 games
1.40 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.80
0.70 Goals concededVia Att/Def 2.00
0.95 xGVia Att/Def 2.01
1.10 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.75
+0.45 Goals minus xGContext -0.21
70% Scored inContext 70%
60% Clean sheetsContext 20%
11.88 ShotsContext 17.00
4.50 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 5.14
38% On target shareContext 27%
7.63 Shots in the boxContext 11.88
61% Box shareContext 68%
8% ConversionContext 11%
1.50 OffsidesContext 1.86
11.25 Shots allowedContext 13.63
4.63 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.88
1.90 BlocksContext 3.10
3.75 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.38
81% Save rateContext 69%
60% PossessionIn forecast 56%
533 PassesContext 520
459 Accurate passesContext 437
86% Pass accuracyContext 84%
6.93 Team ratingContext 6.82
12.90 FoulsContext 10.80
12.60 Fouls sufferedContext 9.60
2.20 Yellow cardsContext 2.20
0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00
Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games
In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Anderlecht
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km178 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 59 · 9 pts vs 8.0 for an average club · +1.4 vs expected
  • L15 OctA · Dinamo Zagreb0–11.2 xPts
  • W10 OctA · Cercle Brugge2–11.6 xPts
  • W19 SepH · Zulte Waregem3–01.7 xPts
  • L16 SepH · Lyon1–21.5 xPts
  • W11 SepA · KV Mechelen1–01.7 xPts
St. Truiden
Rest6.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel—0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 11 · 3 pts vs 8.8 for an average club · -5.4 vs expected
  • L11 OctA · KV Mechelen3–41.5 xPts
  • L20 SepH · KVC Westerlo0–21.9 xPts
  • L12 SepA · SK Beveren0–21.7 xPts
  • W5 SepH · RAAL La Louvière4–02.1 xPts
  • L2 SepH · Union St. Gilloise0–31.3 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery
Anderlecht St. Truiden
Schedule loaddescriptive index, contextLow · 0Low · 0
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecastNoNo
Rest dayssince last match7Belgian Pro League 2026-2027, 20 Dec6.9Belgian Pro League 2026-2027, 20 Dec
Travel to venuefrom home stadium0 km—
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways178 km0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days1 / 2 / 41 / 2 / 3
Next matchdays after this one20.121

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context. Some venues have no coordinates yet.

Squad & lineups

Anderlecht Last XI · not confirmed
4-2-3-1 · vs Dinamo Zagreb (A) 0–1, 15 Oct
26C. Coosemans(G)
5O. Reabciuk 27L. Pétrot 12A. Omobamidele 50K. Barry
19Thelo Aasgaard 29M. Stroeykens
83T. Degreef 18L. Ambros 10M. Winkler
9M. Cvetković
St. Truiden Last XI · not confirmed
4-2-3-1 · vs KV Mechelen (A) 3–4, 11 Oct
16L. Kokubo(G)
3T. Hata 5S. Taniguchi 4K. Takai 60R. Vanwesemael
8A. Sissako 14R. Merlen
10I. Sebaoui 71R. Araki 38Kaito Matsuzawa
9S. Baždar

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences
Anderlecht Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
St. Truiden Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
Total impact vs full squads —

Home / Away this season

Anderlecht · Home 2.50points per game · 4 home games
W-D-L
3-1-0
Scored
1.50
Conceded
0.25
St. Truiden · Away 1.00points per game · 4 away games
W-D-L
1-1-2
Scored
2.50
Conceded
2.50

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 5 this season

OpponentAnderlechtSt. Truiden
Cercle Brugge W 2–1 A D 3–3 A
KV Mechelen W 1–0 A L 3–4 A
Union St. Gilloise L 0–3 A L 0–3 H
SK Beveren L 0–1 A L 0–2 A
RAAL La Louvière W 2–1 H W 4–0 H
Points9 of 15 · 1.80 per game4 of 15 · 0.80 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 6 of 6 meetings

4 Anderlecht wins1 draws1 St. Truiden wins
Goals per game2.00 – 1.17 Over 2.567% Both scored67% Clean sheets17% · 17%
  • 21 May 2026Anderlecht3–1St. Truiden
  • 23 Apr 2026St. Truiden2–0Anderlecht
  • 13 Dec 2025Anderlecht2–1St. Truiden
  • 19 Oct 2025St. Truiden2–2Anderlecht
  • 18 Feb 2024Anderlecht4–1St. Truiden
  • 13 Aug 2023St. Truiden0–1Anderlecht

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

AnderlechtSt. TruidenForecast
Scored per game 1.131.88
Conceded per game 0.752.00
Match goals 1.883.88
Over 1.5 50%100%
Over 2.5 50%63%
Over 3.5 0%50%
Both teams scored 25%50%
Clean sheets 50%13%
Failed to score 38%38%
Games88
AnderlechtSt. TruidenForecast
Scored per game 1.401.80
Conceded per game 0.702.00
Match goals 2.103.80
Over 1.5 60%90%
Over 2.5 60%60%
Over 3.5 0%50%
Both teams scored 20%50%
Clean sheets 60%20%
Failed to score 30%30%
Games1010

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

AnderlechtSt. TruidenLeague
Corners
Corners won6.635.38
Corners conceded3.133.63
Match total9.769.0110.01
Over 8.563% 5/850% 4/8
Over 9.538% 3/838% 3/8
Over 10.538% 3/825% 2/8
Cards
Cards2.132.00
Opponent cards1.381.25
Match total3.513.253.36
Over 3.550% 4/838% 3/8
Over 4.525% 2/825% 2/8
AnderlechtSt. TruidenLeague
Corners
Corners won5.405.50
Corners conceded3.803.50
Match total9.209.0010.01
Over 8.560% 6/1050% 5/10
Over 9.540% 4/1040% 4/10
Over 10.510% 1/1030% 3/10
Cards
Cards2.202.20
Opponent cards1.801.30
Match total4.003.503.36
Over 3.560% 6/1040% 4/10
Over 4.530% 3/1030% 3/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Goal timing

Anderlecht8 games · scored 9 · conceded 6
2 0-15
16-30
3 2 31-45
2 1 46-60
1 61-75
3 1 76-90
St. Truiden8 games · scored 15 · conceded 16
2 0-15
4 16-30
3 3 31-45
3 5 46-60
4 2 61-75
3 2 76-90
Anderlecht10 games · scored 14 · conceded 7
1 2 0-15
1 1 16-30
5 2 31-45
3 46-60
2 61-75
2 2 76-90
St. Truiden10 games · scored 18 · conceded 20
2 0-15
6 16-30
4 3 31-45
3 6 46-60
4 2 61-75
5 3 76-90

scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.

Scenario lab Soon

Real contextLOAD90 forecast: EloLambda plus playing style (possession) and High Congestion.
Pure EloLambdaControl forecast without the LOAD90 factors, as on eScored.
Strength onlyElo and home edge only.
Full squadsBoth teams with every player available.
Neutral venueRemove home advantage.

Next fixtures Belgian Pro League

View all fixtures →
Club Brugge KV Charleroi Dec 2612:30 Kortrijk Cercle Brugge Dec 2615:00 OH Leuven KVC Westerlo Dec 2617:15 Standard Liege Union St. Gilloise Dec 2619:45 RAAL La Louvière SK Beveren Dec 2619:45 Anderlecht St. Truiden Dec 2712:30 Genk Lommel United Dec 2715:00 Gent Antwerp Dec 2717:30 KV Mechelen Zulte Waregem Dec 2718:15