Genoa
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Genoa were slight favourites.
Genoa were the stronger side on L90 Strength (30 vs 16). Genoa had 4.8 days of rest, Pisa 6.8 and had to travel 140 km.
Away travel140 kmRest days4.8 · 6.8Matches / 14d2 · 2
Genoa54%
Draw26%
Pisa20%
Genoa56%
Draw24%
Pisa20%
Genoa54%
Draw26%
Pisa20%
Genoa47%
Draw28%
Pisa25%
Genoa56%
Draw24%
Pisa20%
Over 2.5 45%
Both score 47%
Likeliest score 1–0
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Genova)
No weather data yet
RefereeDaniele Chiffi
- Cards per match 4.0
- Penalties per match 0.20
- Matches 70
Team strength
Genoa
Pisa
30
L90 StrengthIn forecast
16
29
Current StrengthIn forecast
12
23
AttackIn forecast
15
44
DefenceIn forecast
21
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisPisa
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
GenoaPisa
1.00
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.71
1.59
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.41
1.19
xGVia Att/Def
1.02
1.25
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.39
-0.19
Goals minus xGContext
-0.31
65%
Scored inContext
41%
12%
Clean sheetsContext
24%
10.71
ShotsContext
9.76
3.76
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
2.85
35%
On target shareContext
22%
6.94
Shots in the boxContext
7.71
62%
Box shareContext
70%
9%
ConversionContext
7%
2.36
OffsidesContext
1.69
12.24
Shots allowedContext
15.53
5.07
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.53
4.29
BlocksContext
4.63
3.27
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.18
65%
Save rateContext
70%
46%
PossessionIn forecast
41%
351
PassesContext
313
275
Accurate passesContext
241
79%
Pass accuracyContext
77%
6.76
Team ratingContext
6.73
13.71
FoulsContext
12.71
15.00
Fouls sufferedContext
12.41
2.18
Yellow cardsContext
1.94
0.06
Red cardsContext
0.12
1.40
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.90
1.80
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.40
1.29
xGVia Att/Def
1.16
1.43
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.28
+0.11
Goals minus xGContext
-0.26
80%
Scored inContext
50%
0%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
10.60
ShotsContext
10.10
3.90
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
2.88
37%
On target shareContext
23%
7.89
Shots in the boxContext
8.13
71%
Box shareContext
73%
13%
ConversionContext
9%
2.86
OffsidesContext
1.75
13.90
Shots allowedContext
14.90
5.20
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.50
4.22
BlocksContext
4.44
3.50
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.20
67%
Save rateContext
71%
43%
PossessionIn forecast
41%
326
PassesContext
318
254
Accurate passesContext
244
78%
Pass accuracyContext
77%
6.81
Team ratingContext
6.74
12.70
FoulsContext
12.80
15.90
Fouls sufferedContext
12.40
1.60
Yellow cardsContext
2.40
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Genoa
Rest4.8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km804 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Pisa
Rest6.8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel140 km1,019 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Genoa |
Pisa |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 4.8Serie A 2025-2026, 29 Dec | 6.8Serie A 2025-2026, 27 Dec |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 140 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 804 km | 1,019 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 4 | 1 / 2 / 4 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 5.2 | 3 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Genoa
Confirmed XI
1N. Leali(G)
22J. Vásquez
5L. Østigård
34S. Otoa
3Aarón Martín
2M. Thorsby
32M. Frendrup
17R. Malinovskyi
15B. Norton-Cuffy
9Vítinha
29L. Colombo
Pisa
Confirmed XI
1A. Šemper(G)
94G. Bonfanti
39Raúl Albiol
5S. Canestrelli
3S. Angori
8M. Højholt
20M. Aebischer
7M. Léris
15I. Touré
9H. Meister
32S. Moreo
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Genoa
Scores -0.01 · concedes 0.00 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Pisa
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Genoa+0.3 pp
- Draw-0.1 pp
- Pisa-0.2 pp
Home / Away this season
Genoa · Home
0.67points per game · 9 home games
- W-D-L
- 1-3-5
- Scored
- 0.56
- Conceded
- 1.33
Pisa · Away
0.63points per game · 8 away games
- W-D-L
- 0-5-3
- Scored
- 1.38
- Conceded
- 2.13
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 16 this season
| Opponent | Genoa | Pisa |
|---|---|---|
| AS Roma | L 1–3 A | L 0–1 H |
| Atalanta | L 0–1 H | D 1–1 A |
| Inter | L 1–2 H | L 0–2 H |
| Udinese | W 2–1 A | L 0–1 H |
| Verona | W 2–1 H | D 0–0 H |
| Cagliari | D 3–3 A | D 2–2 A |
| Fiorentina | D 2–2 H | D 0–0 H |
| Sassuolo | W 2–1 A | D 2–2 A |
| Cremonese | L 0–2 H | W 1–0 H |
| Torino | L 1–2 A | D 2–2 A |
| Parma | D 0–0 H | L 0–1 H |
| Napoli | L 1–2 A | L 2–3 A |
| Lazio | L 0–3 H | D 0–0 H |
| Bologna | L 1–2 A | L 0–4 A |
| Juventus | L 0–1 H | L 0–2 H |
| Lecce | D 0–0 H | L 0–1 A |
| Points | 13 of 48 · 0.81 per game | 10 of 48 · 0.63 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head
No earlier meetings in our data.
Goals & match trends
| Genoa | Pisa | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.00 | 0.71 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.59 | 1.41 | |
| Match goals | 2.59 | 2.12 | 2.47 |
| Over 1.5 | 76% | 53% | |
| Over 2.5 | 65% | 35% | 45% |
| Over 3.5 | 18% | 35% | |
| Both teams scored | 65% | 35% | 47% |
| Clean sheets | 12% | 24% | |
| Failed to score | 35% | 59% | |
| Games | 17 | 17 |
| Genoa | Pisa | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.40 | 0.90 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.80 | 1.40 | |
| Match goals | 3.20 | 2.30 | 2.47 |
| Over 1.5 | 90% | 60% | |
| Over 2.5 | 80% | 40% | 45% |
| Over 3.5 | 30% | 40% | |
| Both teams scored | 80% | 40% | 47% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 20% | |
| Failed to score | 20% | 50% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Genoa | Pisa | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.23 | 3.13 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.77 | 5.75 | |
| Match total | 9.00 | 8.88 | 8.83 |
| Over 8.5 | 54% 7/13 | 50% 8/16 | |
| Over 9.5 | 46% 6/13 | 44% 7/16 | |
| Over 10.5 | 15% 2/13 | 25% 4/16 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.29 | 2.06 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.24 | 1.71 | |
| Match total | 4.53 | 3.77 | 4.03 |
| Over 3.5 | 82% 14/17 | 59% 10/17 | |
| Over 4.5 | 41% 7/17 | 35% 6/17 | |
| Genoa | Pisa | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.33 | 2.78 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.56 | 5.33 | |
| Match total | 8.89 | 8.11 | 8.83 |
| Over 8.5 | 44% 4/9 | 44% 4/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 33% 3/9 | 33% 3/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 11% 1/9 | 11% 1/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.80 | 2.50 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.10 | 1.90 | |
| Match total | 3.90 | 4.40 | 4.03 |
| Over 3.5 | 80% 8/10 | 80% 8/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 20% 2/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Daniele Chiffi 70 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.73league 3.90
Red cards0.23league 0.16
Cards 5+39%league 39%
Fouls22.7league 26.0
Penalties0.20league 0.30
Home wins43%league 39%
Genoa8 with this referee
Record0-2-6
Cards · opp.2.0 · 1.9
Pens for · against0 · 1
- L31 Aug 25H · Juventus0–11
- L31 Oct 24H · Fiorentina0–14
- L5 Oct 24A · Atalanta1–50
- L3 Sep 23A · Torino0–15
- L15 Apr 22A · AC Milan0–22
PisaNo previous matches with this referee.
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Genoa17 games · scored 17 · conceded 27
2
5
0-15
2
4
16-30
4
4
31-45
1
5
46-60
3
6
61-75
5
3
76-90
Pisa17 games · scored 12 · conceded 24
2
3
0-15
2
1
16-30
1
6
31-45
2
4
46-60
1
5
61-75
4
5
76-90
Genoa10 games · scored 14 · conceded 18
2
3
0-15
2
3
16-30
3
4
31-45
1
4
46-60
2
2
61-75
4
2
76-90
Pisa10 games · scored 9 · conceded 14
2
2
0-15
1
16-30
1
3
31-45
1
1
46-60
1
4
61-75
3
4
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
