GIL Vicente vs Casa Pia – 27 Apr 2026

Primeira Liga Gameweek 31 Mon, Apr 27 · 20:15 Estádio Cidade de Barcelos, Barcelos

GIL Vicente 6th · 46 pts · 30 played DLWDL

2–1Full time

Casa Pia 16th · 26 pts · 30 played LDLDL

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

GIL Vicente were slight favourites.

GIL Vicente were the stronger side on L90 Strength (33 vs 20). Recent goals, xG and shots on target add to that edge for GIL Vicente. GIL Vicente had 9 days of rest, Casa Pia 4.1 and had to travel.

Rest days9 · 4.1Matches / 14d2 · 2

GIL Vicente56%

Draw26%

Casa Pia18%

Expected goals 1.64 – 0.83

GIL Vicente53%

Draw25%

Casa Pia22%

Expected goals 1.74 – 1.03

GIL Vicente56%

Draw26%

Casa Pia18%

Expected goals 1.64 – 0.83

GIL Vicente49%

Draw28%

Casa Pia23%

Expected goals 1.47 – 0.93

GIL Vicente57%

Draw25%

Casa Pia19%

Expected goals 1.76 – 0.92

Over 2.5 45% Both score 46% Likeliest score 1–0

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Barcelos)

No weather data yet

Referee · PortugalBruno Jose Ribeiro Pires Costa

Cards per match 3.8
Penalties per match 0.25
Matches 12

Team strength

GIL Vicente

Casa Pia

33 L90 StrengthIn forecast 20

34 Current StrengthIn forecast 18

32 AttackIn forecast 13

50 DefenceIn forecast 25

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

GIL Vicente

Attack—

Defense risk—

Casa Pia

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

GIL Vicente

Casa Pia

1.47 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 0.93

1.03 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.77

1.35 xGVia Att/Def 0.86

0.97 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.63

+0.12 Goals minus xGContext +0.07

77% Scored inContext 53%

37% Clean sheetsContext 20%

13.63 ShotsContext 8.40

4.83 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 2.89

34% On target shareContext 32%

7.83 Shots in the boxContext 4.86

58% Box shareContext 56%

11% ConversionContext 11%

1.87 OffsidesContext 2.28

9.83 Shots allowedContext 13.60

3.71 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.40

2.48 BlocksContext 3.93

2.81 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.69

72% Save rateContext 60%

50% PossessionIn forecast 41%

365 PassesContext 294

296 Accurate passesContext 217

81% Pass accuracyContext 74%

6.79 Team ratingContext 6.66

13.20 FoulsContext 15.30

14.30 Fouls sufferedContext 13.37

2.27 Yellow cardsContext 2.73

0.10 Red cardsContext 0.07

This league season, per match · 30 and 30 games

1.50 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 0.60

1.50 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.40

1.51 xGVia Att/Def 0.89

0.93 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.40

-0.01 Goals minus xGContext -0.29

80% Scored inContext 40%

10% Clean sheetsContext 30%

13.10 ShotsContext 9.10

5.22 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 2.50

36% On target shareContext 28%

8.30 Shots in the boxContext 5.20

64% Box shareContext 57%

12% ConversionContext 7%

1.78 OffsidesContext 2.57

9.70 Shots allowedContext 13.60

3.40 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.00

2.70 BlocksContext 4.00

2.22 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.70

61% Save rateContext 68%

52% PossessionIn forecast 35%

390 PassesContext 250

319 Accurate passesContext 172

82% Pass accuracyContext 69%

6.77 Team ratingContext 6.65

11.90 FoulsContext 15.70

14.40 Fouls sufferedContext 11.80

1.70 Yellow cardsContext 2.20

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

GIL Vicente

Rest9 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel0 km243 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Casa Pia

Rest4.1 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel—0 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	GIL Vicente	Casa Pia
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 0
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	9Primeira Liga 2025-2026, 18 Apr	4.1Primeira Liga 2025-2026, 23 Apr
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	—
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	243 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	0 / 2 / 3	1 / 2 / 4
Next matchdays after this one	6	5.8

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context. Some venues have no coordinates yet.

Squad & lineups

GIL Vicente Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

99Daniel Figueira(G)

45J. Mutombo 39Jonathan Buatu 4M. Elimbi 2Zé Carlos

10Luís Esteves 6Zé Carlos

32Martin Fernández 95Santi García 77Murilo

23Héctor Hernández

Casa Pia Confirmed XI

3-4-3

1P. Sequeira(G)

43David Sousa 18André Geraldes 4João Goulart

75Pedro Rosas 8Rafael Brito 24I. Mohamed 72Gaizka Larrazabal

11João Marques 90Cassiano 29J. Livolant

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

GIL Vicente Absences are shown before kick-off

Casa Pia Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

GIL Vicente+0.0 pp
Draw+0.0 pp
Casa Pia+0.0 pp

Home / Away this season

GIL Vicente · Home 1.80points per game · 15 home games

W-D-L: 8-3-4
Scored: 1.67
Conceded: 0.87

Casa Pia · Away 0.80points per game · 15 away games

W-D-L: 3-3-9
Scored: 0.73
Conceded: 1.93

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 16 this season

Opponent	GIL Vicente	Casa Pia
Guimaraes	L 0–1 HD 0–0 A	D 0–0 H
Tondela	D 2–2 AL 0–1 H	W 2–1 A
AVS	W 3–0 HD 1–1 A	D 3–3 HW 2–0 A
Santa Clara	L 0–1 AW 1–0 H	D 0–0 HL 0–1 A
Alverca	D 2–2 HW 4–0 A	L 1–3 AL 0–2 H
Estrela	D 2–2 AW 2–0 H	L 0–4 AL 3–5 H
Benfica	L 1–2 HL 1–2 A	D 1–1 HD 2–2 A
Estoril	L 1–3 AW 2–0 H	D 0–0 AD 2–2 H
SC Braga	W 2–1 HW 1–0 A	L 0–1 HL 0–4 A
Moreirense	W 2–1 AW 2–0 H	D 1–1 HL 1–2 A
Famalicao	W 5–0 HD 0–0 A	L 0–2 AD 1–1 H
FC Porto	L 0–3 AL 0–2 H	W 2–1 HL 0–4 A
Nacional	W 2–1 HW 2–0 A	D 0–0 AL 0–2 H
Sporting CP	D 1–1 H	L 0–3 AL 0–2 H
Arouca	D 2–2 A	W 3–2 HW 2–0 A
Rio Ave	D 2–2 H	L 1–3 A
Points	45 of 87 · 1.55 per game	25 of 87 · 0.86 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 7 of 7 meetings

3 GIL Vicente wins3 draws1 Casa Pia wins

Goals per game1.14 – 0.57 Over 2.514% Both scored43% Clean sheets43% · 29%

13 Dec 2025Casa Pia1–1GIL Vicente
22 Feb 2025Casa Pia1–0GIL Vicente
22 Sep 2024GIL Vicente1–1Casa Pia
3 Mar 2024Casa Pia0–0GIL Vicente
2 Oct 2023GIL Vicente2–0Casa Pia
27 May 2023GIL Vicente1–0Casa Pia

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	GIL Vicente	Casa Pia	Forecast
Scored per game	1.47	0.93
Conceded per game	1.03	1.77
Match goals	2.50	2.70	2.48
Over 1.5	77%	80%
Over 2.5	50%	47%	45%
Over 3.5	27%	33%
Both teams scored	47%	47%	46%
Clean sheets	37%	20%
Failed to score	23%	47%
Games	30	30

	GIL Vicente	Casa Pia	Forecast
Scored per game	1.50	0.60
Conceded per game	1.50	1.40
Match goals	3.00	2.00	2.48
Over 1.5	80%	60%
Over 2.5	80%	30%	45%
Over 3.5	40%	30%
Both teams scored	70%	40%	46%
Clean sheets	10%	30%
Failed to score	20%	60%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	GIL Vicente	Casa Pia	League
Corners
Corners won	5.62	3.75
Corners conceded	4.31	6.00
Match total	9.93	9.75	9.34
Over 8.5	65% 17/26	61% 17/28
Over 9.5	62% 16/26	50% 14/28
Over 10.5	54% 14/26	36% 10/28
Cards
Cards	2.40	2.80
Opponent cards	2.53	2.43
Match total	4.93	5.23	5.07
Over 3.5	67% 20/30	83% 25/30
Over 4.5	53% 16/30	70% 21/30

	GIL Vicente	Casa Pia	League
Corners
Corners won	5.11	3.90
Corners conceded	3.89	6.80
Match total	9.00	10.70	9.34
Over 8.5	67% 6/9	70% 7/10
Over 9.5	56% 5/9	50% 5/10
Over 10.5	33% 3/9	40% 4/10
Cards
Cards	1.70	2.20
Opponent cards	1.90	2.00
Match total	3.60	4.20	5.07
Over 3.5	40% 4/10	80% 8/10
Over 4.5	30% 3/10	70% 7/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Bruno Jose Ribeiro Pires Costa Portugal · 12 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards3.58league 4.81

Red cards0.17league 0.23

Cards 5+33%league 57%

Fouls24.5league 26.8

Penalties0.25league 0.43

Home wins50%league 41%

GIL Vicente

No previous matches with this referee.

Casa Pia2 with this referee

Record0-1-1 Cards · opp.4.0 · 2.0 Pens for · against0 · 0

D7 Mar 26A · Estoril0–02
L16 May 25A · Famalicao1–26

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.