GIL Vicente vs Rio Ave – 20 Dec 2025

Primeira Liga Gameweek 15 Sat, Dec 20 · 18:00 Estádio Cidade de Barcelos, Barcelos

GIL Vicente 5th · 25 pts · 14 played WDLDD

2–2Full time

Rio Ave 11th · 16 pts · 14 played LDDWL

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

GIL Vicente were slight favourites.

GIL Vicente were the stronger side on L90 Strength (32 vs 25). GIL Vicente had 7.1 days of rest, Rio Ave 7 and had to travel 22 km.

Away travel22 kmRest days7.1 · 7Matches / 14d2 · 2

GIL Vicente49%

Draw27%

Rio Ave25%

Expected goals 1.55 – 1.04

GIL Vicente49%

Draw26%

Rio Ave25%

Expected goals 1.63 – 1.10

GIL Vicente49%

Draw27%

Rio Ave25%

Expected goals 1.55 – 1.04

GIL Vicente41%

Draw28%

Rio Ave31%

Expected goals 1.39 – 1.16

GIL Vicente49%

Draw26%

Rio Ave25%

Expected goals 1.63 – 1.10

Over 2.5 48% Both score 52% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Barcelos)

No weather data yet

Referee · PortugalDiogo Rosa

Cards per match 8.0
Penalties per match 0.00
Matches 2

Team strength

GIL Vicente

Rio Ave

32 L90 StrengthIn forecast 25

34 Current StrengthIn forecast 21

32 AttackIn forecast 18

50 DefenceIn forecast 21

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

GIL Vicente

Attack—

Defense risk—

Rio Ave

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

GIL Vicente

Rio Ave

1.21 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.21

0.50 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.57

1.19 xGVia Att/Def 1.05

0.94 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.55

+0.02 Goals minus xGContext +0.16

71% Scored inContext 71%

64% Clean sheetsContext 14%

12.50 ShotsContext 9.50

4.00 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.23

32% On target shareContext 41%

7.07 Shots in the boxContext 6.42

57% Box shareContext 64%

10% ConversionContext 13%

1.56 OffsidesContext 2.57

10.29 Shots allowedContext 15.79

3.77 On target allowedVia Att/Def 5.21

2.60 BlocksContext 4.43

3.42 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.64

85% Save rateContext 70%

49% PossessionIn forecast 46%

355 PassesContext 371

284 Accurate passesContext 307

80% Pass accuracyContext 83%

6.85 Team ratingContext 6.84

14.64 FoulsContext 13.79

14.43 Fouls sufferedContext 14.79

2.79 Yellow cardsContext 2.71

0.14 Red cardsContext 0.07

This league season, per match · 14 and 14 games

1.30 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.00

0.50 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.30

1.26 xGVia Att/Def 0.92

0.95 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.62

+0.04 Goals minus xGContext +0.08

80% Scored inContext 60%

60% Clean sheetsContext 20%

12.00 ShotsContext 8.00

4.00 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.67

33% On target shareContext 41%

6.60 Shots in the boxContext 5.50

55% Box shareContext 63%

11% ConversionContext 13%

1.43 OffsidesContext 2.40

9.40 Shots allowedContext 16.10

3.80 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.60

2.50 BlocksContext 5.00

3.56 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.30

87% Save rateContext 72%

50% PossessionIn forecast 46%

365 PassesContext 370

292 Accurate passesContext 307

80% Pass accuracyContext 83%

6.87 Team ratingContext 6.84

14.70 FoulsContext 13.90

13.30 Fouls sufferedContext 15.30

2.90 Yellow cardsContext 3.10

0.20 Red cardsContext 0.10

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

GIL Vicente

Rest7.1 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel0 km548 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Rio Ave

Rest7 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel22 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	GIL Vicente	Rio Ave
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 0
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	7.1Primeira Liga 2025-2026, 13 Dec	7Primeira Liga 2025-2026, 13 Dec
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	22 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	548 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	0 / 2 / 3	1 / 2 / 3
Next matchdays after this one	7.9	8.1

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context. Some venues have no coordinates yet.

Squad & lineups

GIL Vicente Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

42Andrew(G)

20Hevertton Santos 48Espigares 4M. Elimbi 2Zé Carlos

10Luís Esteves 5F. Cáseres

11Joelson Fernandes 95Santi García 77Murilo

89Gustavo Varela

Rio Ave Confirmed XI

3-4-3

1C. Miszta(G)

4J. Panzo 32J. Brabec 23F. Petrasso

3N. Athanasiou 10B. Aguilera 5A. Ntoi 20João Tomé

80O. Pohlmann 9Clayton 11André Luiz

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

GIL Vicente Absences are shown before kick-off

Rio Ave Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

GIL Vicente+0.0 pp
Draw+0.0 pp
Rio Ave+0.0 pp

Home / Away this season

GIL Vicente · Home 2.00points per game · 6 home games

W-D-L: 4-0-2
Scored: 1.17
Conceded: 0.50

Rio Ave · Away 1.43points per game · 7 away games

W-D-L: 2-4-1
Scored: 1.43
Conceded: 1.43

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 13 this season

Opponent	GIL Vicente	Rio Ave
Guimaraes	D 0–0 A	L 0–1 H
Tondela	L 0–1 H	W 3–0 H
AVS	D 1–1 A	W 2–1 A
Santa Clara	W 1–0 H	D 1–1 H
Alverca	W 4–0 A	D 1–1 A
Estrela	W 2–0 H	W 2–1 A
Benfica	L 1–2 A	D 1–1 A
Estoril	W 2–0 H	L 0–4 H
SC Braga	W 1–0 A	D 2–2 H
Moreirense	W 2–0 H	L 1–3 A
Famalicao	D 0–0 A	D 0–0 A
FC Porto	L 0–2 H	L 0–3 H
Nacional	W 2–0 A	D 1–1 H
Points	24 of 39 · 1.85 per game	15 of 39 · 1.15 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 6 of 6 meetings

0 GIL Vicente wins4 draws2 Rio Ave wins

Goals per game1.00 – 1.67 Over 2.550% Both scored83% Clean sheets0% · 17%

16 May 2025Rio Ave1–1GIL Vicente
6 Jan 2025GIL Vicente1–1Rio Ave
6 Apr 2024Rio Ave3–0GIL Vicente
12 Nov 2023GIL Vicente1–1Rio Ave
12 Mar 2023Rio Ave2–1GIL Vicente
17 Sep 2022GIL Vicente2–2Rio Ave

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	GIL Vicente	Rio Ave	Forecast
Scored per game	1.21	1.21
Conceded per game	0.50	1.57
Match goals	1.71	2.79	2.59
Over 1.5	64%	86%
Over 2.5	14%	57%	48%
Over 3.5	7%	29%
Both teams scored	21%	64%	52%
Clean sheets	64%	14%
Failed to score	29%	29%
Games	14	14

	GIL Vicente	Rio Ave	Forecast
Scored per game	1.30	1.00
Conceded per game	0.50	1.30
Match goals	1.80	2.30	2.59
Over 1.5	60%	80%
Over 2.5	20%	50%	48%
Over 3.5	10%	10%
Both teams scored	30%	50%	52%
Clean sheets	60%	20%
Failed to score	20%	40%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	GIL Vicente	Rio Ave	League
Corners
Corners won	5.55	4.08
Corners conceded	4.45	6.85
Match total	10.00	10.93	9.21
Over 8.5	55% 6/11	77% 10/13
Over 9.5	55% 6/11	69% 9/13
Over 10.5	55% 6/11	62% 8/13
Cards
Cards	3.00	2.93
Opponent cards	2.57	2.93
Match total	5.57	5.86	5.55
Over 3.5	86% 12/14	79% 11/14
Over 4.5	64% 9/14	71% 10/14

	GIL Vicente	Rio Ave	League
Corners
Corners won	5.86	4.67
Corners conceded	3.71	7.33
Match total	9.57	12.00	9.21
Over 8.5	57% 4/7	89% 8/9
Over 9.5	57% 4/7	78% 7/9
Over 10.5	57% 4/7	78% 7/9
Cards
Cards	3.20	3.40
Opponent cards	2.40	3.10
Match total	5.60	6.50	5.55
Over 3.5	90% 9/10	80% 8/10
Over 4.5	70% 7/10	70% 7/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Diogo Rosa Portugal · 2 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards8.00league 5.20

Red cards0.00league 0.30

Cards 5+100%league 63%

Fouls27.5league 27.4

Penalties0.00league 0.46

Home wins100%league 38%

GIL Vicente

No previous matches with this referee.

Rio Ave

No previous matches with this referee.

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.