GIL Vicente
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
GIL Vicente48.7%fair odds 2.06
Draw26.7%fair odds 3.75
Rio Ave24.7%fair odds 4.06
Expected goals1.55 – 1.04total 2.59
Likeliest score1–112.7%
Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.
Match Opportunity
How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.
Rio Ave
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
About this comparison
The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.
Score matrix
| GIL Vicente ↓ · Rio Ave → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.1 | 7.1 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 11.0 | 12.7 | 6.3 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 2 | 9.1 | 9.4 | 4.9 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 3 | 4.7 | 4.9 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 1.8 | 1.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 6+ | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are GIL Vicente goals, columns Rio Ave goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.
Most likely scores
- 1–112.7%7.86
- 1–011.0%9.08
- 2–19.4%10.66
- 2–09.1%11.05
- 0–08.1%12.28
- 0–17.1%14.02
- 1–26.3%15.98
- 2–24.9%20.57
- 3–14.9%20.58
- 3–04.7%21.33
Winning margin
10.4%
GIL Vicente by 3+
fair 9.64
15.0%
GIL Vicente by 2
fair 6.67
23.3%
GIL Vicente by 1
fair 4.30
26.7%
Draw
fair 3.75
15.3%
Rio Ave by 1
fair 6.53
6.7%
Rio Ave by 2
fair 14.98
2.7%
Rio Ave by 3+
fair 37.58
Goal distribution
Total goals
8%0
18%1
26%2
22%3
14%4
12%5+
GIL Vicente goals
21%0
33%1
26%2
13%3
7%4+
Rio Ave goals
35%0
37%1
19%2
7%3
2%4+
LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda
| LOAD90 | EloLambda | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| GIL Vicente win | 48.7% | 49.2% | -0.6 pp |
| Draw | 26.7% | 25.9% | +0.8 pp |
| Rio Ave win | 24.7% | 24.9% | -0.3 pp |
| Over 2.5 | 47.9% | 51.3% | -3.4 pp |
| Both teams score | 51.5% | 54.2% | -2.7 pp |
| Expected goals GIL Vicente | 1.55 | 1.63 | -0.08 |
| Expected goals Rio Ave | 1.04 | 1.10 | -0.06 |
EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.
All markets model probability and fair odds
Result
- GIL Vicente win48.7%2.06
- Draw26.7%3.75
- Rio Ave win24.7%4.06
- Double chance GIL Vicente or draw75.3%1.33
- Double chance GIL Vicente or Rio Ave73.3%1.36
- Double chance Rio Ave or draw51.3%1.95
- Draw no bet GIL Vicente66.4%1.51
- Draw no bet Rio Ave33.6%2.97
Goals
- Over 0.591.9%1.09
- Over 1.573.7%1.36
- Over 2.547.9%2.09
- Over 3.526.2%3.82
- Over 4.512.1%8.25
- Under 1.526.3%3.80
- Under 2.552.1%1.92
- Under 3.573.8%1.35
Both teams to score
- Yes51.5%1.94
- No48.5%2.06
- Yes and over 2.538.8%2.58
- GIL Vicente win and yes21.3%4.69
- Draw and yes18.5%5.39
- Rio Ave win and yes11.6%8.58
Team goals
- GIL Vicente over 0.578.9%1.27
- GIL Vicente over 1.546.0%2.17
- GIL Vicente over 2.520.5%4.88
- Rio Ave over 0.564.5%1.55
- Rio Ave over 1.527.8%3.60
- Rio Ave over 2.58.7%11.48
- GIL Vicente clean sheet35.5%2.82
- Rio Ave clean sheet21.1%4.73
- GIL Vicente win to nil27.3%3.66
- Rio Ave win to nil13.0%7.69
Handicap
- GIL Vicente −1.525.4%3.94
- GIL Vicente −2.510.4%9.64
- Rio Ave +1.574.6%1.34
- Rio Ave +2.589.6%1.12
- Rio Ave −1.59.3%10.71
- GIL Vicente +1.590.7%1.10
Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.
Model track record Primeira Liga 2025-2026
All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.
Matches scored127
Favourite won59.1%
Avg chance given to result43.6%
1X2 Brier0.545
Over 2.5 called right62.2%
BTTS called right54.3%
Calibration · when the favourite was given…
| Favourite chance | Matches | Predicted | Actually won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40% | 21 | 37.7% | 38.1% |
| 40–50% | 46 | 45.0% | 52.2% |
| 50–60% | 27 | 54.1% | 59.3% |
| 60–70% | 15 | 66.3% | 86.7% |
| 70–80% | 15 | 75.4% | 73.3% |
| 80%+ | 3 | 85.2% | 100.0% |
LOAD90 vs Bookmaker
Compared on the same 98 of 127 scored matches.
| LOAD90 | Bookmaker | |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 Brier (lower is better) | 0.5409 | 0.5194 |
| Avg chance given to result | 43.8% | 46.0% |
| Favourite won | 60.2% | 60.2% |
Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off. Bookmaker identity is unavailable for 98 archived lines; these prices may come from different bookmakers.
Latest results
- ✗Estoril 1–0 SC Braga22·25·53
- ✓FC Porto 3–1 Estrela80·14·6
- ✓SC Braga 1–0 Santa Clara69·20·12
- ✓Nacional 3–1 Tondela46·28·26
- ✓Arouca 1–0 Alverca37·28·34
- ✓Moreirense 0–4 Benfica18·24·58
- ✓Famalicao 4–0 Estoril49·27·24
- ✓Sporting CP 6–0 AVS89·9·3
- ✓Rio Ave 0–1 Guimaraes33·28·39
- ✗Casa Pia 1–1 GIL Vicente35·28·37
Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 127 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.