Guimaraes vs Famalicao – 14 Mar 2026

Primeira Liga Gameweek 26 Sat, Mar 14 · 15:30 Estádio Dom Afonso Henriques, Guimarães

Guimaraes 9th · 32 pts · 25 played LWLDL

1–2Full time

Famalicao 6th · 39 pts · 25 played WLWDW

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Guimaraes were slight favourites.

The two sides are close in strength. Recent goals, xG and shots on target tip the balance towards Famalicao. Guimaraes had 5.8 days of rest, Famalicao 7.8 and had to travel 19 km.

Away travel19 kmRest days5.8 · 7.8Matches / 14d2 · 2

Guimaraes41%

Draw28%

Famalicao31%

Expected goals 1.36 – 1.17

Guimaraes42%

Draw27%

Famalicao31%

Expected goals 1.46 – 1.22

Guimaraes41%

Draw28%

Famalicao31%

Expected goals 1.36 – 1.17

Guimaraes34%

Draw28%

Famalicao38%

Expected goals 1.21 – 1.31

Guimaraes41%

Draw27%

Famalicao32%

Expected goals 1.41 – 1.21

Over 2.5 46% Both score 52% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Guimarães)

No weather data yet

Referee · PortugalHelder Filipe Claudio Carvalho

Cards per match 4.1
Penalties per match 0.78
Matches 9

Team strength

Guimaraes

Famalicao

35 L90 StrengthIn forecast 37

27 Current StrengthIn forecast 38

28 AttackIn forecast 24

39 DefenceIn forecast 36

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Guimaraes

Attack—

Defense risk—

Famalicao

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Guimaraes

Famalicao

1.12 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.20

1.48 Goals concededVia Att/Def 0.84

1.18 xGVia Att/Def 1.23

1.28 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.02

-0.06 Goals minus xGContext -0.03

64% Scored inContext 68%

28% Clean sheetsContext 52%

13.04 ShotsContext 12.00

3.84 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.35

29% On target shareContext 33%

7.24 Shots in the boxContext 8.13

56% Box shareContext 64%

9% ConversionContext 10%

2.29 OffsidesContext 1.75

11.08 Shots allowedContext 10.92

4.48 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.88

3.05 BlocksContext 2.75

3.08 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.32

69% Save rateContext 80%

50% PossessionIn forecast 51%

375 PassesContext 387

306 Accurate passesContext 316

82% Pass accuracyContext 82%

6.76 Team ratingContext 6.92

14.36 FoulsContext 16.52

15.28 Fouls sufferedContext 16.28

2.40 Yellow cardsContext 2.44

0.08 Red cardsContext 0.04

This league season, per match · 25 and 25 games

1.20 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.20

1.60 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.10

1.38 xGVia Att/Def 1.14

1.47 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.02

-0.18 Goals minus xGContext +0.06

70% Scored inContext 60%

20% Clean sheetsContext 50%

13.70 ShotsContext 11.50

4.20 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.11

31% On target shareContext 32%

8.50 Shots in the boxContext 7.33

63% Box shareContext 56%

9% ConversionContext 10%

2.38 OffsidesContext 1.67

9.50 Shots allowedContext 10.50

4.40 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.44

2.57 BlocksContext 2.80

2.70 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.00

61% Save rateContext 72%

53% PossessionIn forecast 54%

396 PassesContext 412

322 Accurate passesContext 343

81% Pass accuracyContext 83%

6.73 Team ratingContext 6.87

15.10 FoulsContext 14.60

15.90 Fouls sufferedContext 16.70

2.30 Yellow cardsContext 1.80

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.10

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Guimaraes

Rest5.8 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel0 km3,083 km in 14d

Schedule load10%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Famalicao

Rest7.8 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel19 km40 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Guimaraes	Famalicao
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 10	Low · 0
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	5.8Primeira Liga 2025-2026, 8 Mar	7.8Primeira Liga 2025-2026, 6 Mar
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	19 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	3,083 km	40 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	1 / 2 / 4	0 / 2 / 4
Next matchdays after this one	7.1	7

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Guimaraes Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

27Charles(G)

13J. Teixeira Mendes 26R. Abascal 28Thiago Balieiro 66T. Strata

23Diogo Sousa 16Beni

48N. Saviolo 20Samu 11Gustavo Silva

7Nélson Oliveira

Famalicao Confirmed XI

4-3-3

25L. Carević(G)

5Rafa Soares 16J. de Haas 55I. Ba 17Rodrigo Pinheiro

20Gustavo Sá 6T. van de Looi 80Pedro Santos

7Sorriso 12S. Elisor 23Gil Dias

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Guimaraes Absences are shown before kick-off

Famalicao Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Guimaraes+0.0 pp
Draw+0.0 pp
Famalicao+0.0 pp

Home / Away this season

Guimaraes · Home 1.69points per game · 13 home games

W-D-L: 6-4-3
Scored: 1.38
Conceded: 1.23

Famalicao · Away 1.33points per game · 12 away games

W-D-L: 4-4-4
Scored: 0.67
Conceded: 1.00

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 16 this season

Opponent	Guimaraes	Famalicao
Santa Clara	L 0–2 AW 2–1 H	W 1–0 AW 3–0 H
Alverca	D 1–1 HL 0–2 A	L 0–1 A
SC Braga	L 2–3 AD 1–1 H	L 1–2 H
Estrela	W 2–1 HW 2–0 A	L 2–3 H
Arouca	L 2–3 AD 1–1 H	W 1–0 HD 1–1 A
Moreirense	W 1–0 HL 0–2 A	D 2–2 A
Estoril	L 2–4 AW 3–2 H	W 4–0 H
FC Porto	L 0–1 HL 0–3 A	L 0–1 H
Nacional	W 2–1 H	W 1–0 A
Casa Pia	D 0–0 A	W 2–0 HD 1–1 A
Sporting CP	L 1–4 H	L 0–1 AL 1–2 H
Rio Ave	W 1–0 A	D 0–0 AD 0–0 H
GIL Vicente	D 0–0 H	L 0–5 AD 0–0 H
AVS	W 4–0 H	W 3–1 HW 1–0 A
Tondela	W 1–0 A	W 3–0 HW 1–0 A
Benfica	L 0–3 H	L 0–1 A
Points	32 of 72 · 1.33 per game	36 of 72 · 1.50 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 7 of 7 meetings

4 Guimaraes wins1 draws2 Famalicao wins

Goals per game1.43 – 1.14 Over 2.557% Both scored57% Clean sheets29% · 29%

26 Oct 2025Famalicao2–0Guimaraes
8 Feb 2025Famalicao0–0Guimaraes
1 Sep 2024Guimaraes2–1Famalicao
9 Mar 2024Guimaraes1–0Famalicao
8 Oct 2023Famalicao1–3Guimaraes
14 Apr 2023Famalicao2–1Guimaraes

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Guimaraes	Famalicao	Forecast
Scored per game	1.12	1.20
Conceded per game	1.48	0.84
Match goals	2.60	2.04	2.53
Over 1.5	76%	52%
Over 2.5	44%	36%	46%
Over 3.5	24%	20%
Both teams scored	44%	28%	52%
Clean sheets	28%	52%
Failed to score	36%	32%
Games	25	25

	Guimaraes	Famalicao	Forecast
Scored per game	1.20	1.20
Conceded per game	1.60	1.10
Match goals	2.80	2.30	2.53
Over 1.5	70%	50%
Over 2.5	50%	40%	46%
Over 3.5	30%	30%
Both teams scored	60%	20%	52%
Clean sheets	20%	50%
Failed to score	30%	40%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Guimaraes	Famalicao	League
Corners
Corners won	4.43	4.80
Corners conceded	3.26	5.00
Match total	7.69	9.80	9.15
Over 8.5	43% 10/23	60% 15/25
Over 9.5	30% 7/23	44% 11/25
Over 10.5	17% 4/23	44% 11/25
Cards
Cards	2.52	2.52
Opponent cards	2.96	2.20
Match total	5.48	4.72	5.18
Over 3.5	76% 19/25	68% 17/25
Over 4.5	72% 18/25	52% 13/25

	Guimaraes	Famalicao	League
Corners
Corners won	4.50	4.40
Corners conceded	2.50	4.90
Match total	7.00	9.30	9.15
Over 8.5	25% 2/8	50% 5/10
Over 9.5	25% 2/8	40% 4/10
Over 10.5	13% 1/8	40% 4/10
Cards
Cards	2.40	1.90
Opponent cards	2.50	2.20
Match total	4.90	4.10	5.18
Over 3.5	80% 8/10	60% 6/10
Over 4.5	80% 8/10	50% 5/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Helder Filipe Claudio Carvalho Portugal · 9 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards4.00league 4.84

Red cards0.11league 0.27

Cards 5+33%league 59%

Fouls28.0league 27.0

Penalties0.78league 0.45

Home wins22%league 41%

Guimaraes

No previous matches with this referee.

Famalicao

No previous matches with this referee.

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.