Guimaraes
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
No forecast yet.
Forecasts are published up to 21 days before kick-off.
Away travel16 kmRest days7 · 7Matches / 14d2 · 2
Real contextStrength only
Guimaraes—%
Draw—%
SC Braga—%
Weather (Guimarães)
Forecast from 23 Jan
Referee—Not appointed yet
Key insights
Automatic descriptive highlights for Guimaraes and SC Braga. These describe recorded performance and do not change the match forecast. Each metric is ordered within its own type; types alternate to keep the selection varied. Up to six distinct signals per category, with at most three per team.Result statistics require at least five known completed matches. They use the last ten recorded results across all competitions, or the last eight away results. Future, special and invalid results are excluded; missing results can interrupt real-world sequences, so streaks refer to recorded results. 10+ means at least ten within the window.
Bars run oldest to newest. Height shows goals scored, or goals conceded in conceding cards, on the same 0–6 scale. Six or more goals use maximum height; zero retains a small marker. Colour shows the result: teal = win, amber = draw, red = loss. In event and streak cards, solid bars mark the event and faded bars mark its absence. Hover for the date, full score and event. xG and points cards compare their two inputs, not a fabricated history.
xG Difference uses the observed pre-match Playing style averages already shown for this fixture. Window size is not xG coverage, and the two averages can have different denominators. Result statistics use completed matches recorded up to now; their window can differ from the Playing style profile. Season points and xPts are not included here.
Headlines
-
Insight
Guimaraes
+0.32
xG difference per match
Underlying performance · 10-match window
xG for1.39xG against1.07
-
Trend
SC Braga
63%
Both teams scored
Last 8 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals scored · W/D/L colours
Solid = Both teams scored -
Insight
SC Braga
3
Clean sheets
Last 8 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals scored · W/D/L colours
Solid = Clean sheet
Attack
Streaks
Not enough recorded data for this category yet.
Team strength
GuimaraesSC Braga
—
L90 StrengthIn forecast
—
27
Current StrengthIn forecast
56
28
AttackIn forecast
42
39
DefenceIn forecast
59
13
Form indexContext
19
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisSC Braga
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
GuimaraesSC Braga
0.63
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.13
1.25
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.25
1.48
xGVia Att/Def
1.06
1.13
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.74
-0.85
Goals minus xGContext
+0.07
50%
Scored inContext
88%
25%
Clean sheetsContext
38%
17.25
ShotsContext
13.00
4.57
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.38
23%
On target shareContext
34%
10.63
Shots in the boxContext
8.13
62%
Box shareContext
63%
4%
ConversionContext
9%
1.43
OffsidesContext
2.57
9.13
Shots allowedContext
8.63
3.43
On target allowedVia Att/Def
2.63
3.00
BlocksContext
2.43
2.17
Goalkeeper savesContext
1.63
62%
Save rateContext
62%
54%
PossessionIn forecast
59%
449
PassesContext
572
370
Accurate passesContext
491
82%
Pass accuracyContext
86%
6.69
Team ratingContext
6.66
15.63
FoulsContext
13.25
9.88
Fouls sufferedContext
12.38
2.63
Yellow cardsContext
2.00
0.13
Red cardsContext
0.00
0.50
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.30
1.30
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.40
1.39
xGVia Att/Def
1.14
1.07
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.06
-0.89
Goals minus xGContext
+0.16
40%
Scored inContext
90%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
30%
16.60
ShotsContext
12.30
4.22
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.10
23%
On target shareContext
33%
10.30
Shots in the boxContext
7.40
62%
Box shareContext
59%
3%
ConversionContext
11%
1.67
OffsidesContext
2.22
8.90
Shots allowedContext
9.90
3.56
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.30
2.63
BlocksContext
3.13
2.25
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.10
62%
Save rateContext
64%
57%
PossessionIn forecast
59%
448
PassesContext
569
370
Accurate passesContext
490
83%
Pass accuracyContext
86%
6.70
Team ratingContext
6.68
14.70
FoulsContext
13.00
11.20
Fouls sufferedContext
11.40
2.60
Yellow cardsContext
2.10
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Guimaraes
LDLDL
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km2,474 km in 14d
Schedule load5%Low
Form 13 · 2 pts vs 7.3 for an average club · -4.5 vs expected
SC Braga
LWDLL
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel16 km33 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 19 · 4 pts vs 8.1 for an average club · -4.5 vs expected
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Guimaraes |
SC Braga |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 5 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 7Primeira Liga 2026-2027, 31 Jan | 7Primeira Liga 2026-2027, 31 Jan |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 16 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 2,474 km | 33 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 4 | 1 / 2 / 4 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 7 | 7 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Guimaraes
Last XI · not confirmed
48O. Zych(G)
13J. Teixeira Mendes
28Thiago Balieiro
21T. Borevković
23T. Strata
8Gonçalo Nogueira
44L. Doucet
7O. Camara
20Samu
17M. Nogueira
9A. Jakupovic
SC Braga
Last XI · not confirmed
31Bernardo Fontes(G)
44A. Bajrami
6Vitor Carvalho
14G. Lagerbielke
10Pau Víctor
29J. Gorby
8João Moutinho
7Diogo Travassos
50D. Rodrigues
21Ricardo Horta
19J. Wind
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Guimaraes
Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
SC Braga
Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
Total impact vs full squads
—
Home / Away this season
Guimaraes · Home
1.25points per game · 4 home games
- W-D-L
- 1-2-1
- Scored
- 0.50
- Conceded
- 0.50
SC Braga · Away
1.25points per game · 4 away games
- W-D-L
- 1-2-1
- Scored
- 1.25
- Conceded
- 1.25
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 2 this season
| Opponent | Guimaraes | SC Braga |
|---|---|---|
| Moreirense | D 1–1 H | D 2–2 A |
| Sporting CP | L 2–3 A | L 1–3 H |
| Points | 1 of 6 · 0.50 per game | 1 of 6 · 0.50 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 9 of 9 meetings
2 Guimaraes wins3 draws4 SC Braga wins
Goals per game1.11 – 1.22
Over 2.533%
Both scored56%
Clean sheets22% · 33%
- 31 Aug 2026SC Braga1–0Guimaraes
- 21 Feb 2026SC Braga3–2Guimaraes
- 20 Sep 2025Guimaraes1–1SC Braga
- 16 Feb 2025Guimaraes0–0SC Braga
- 15 Sep 2024SC Braga0–2Guimaraes
- 11 May 2024Guimaraes2–3SC Braga
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Guimaraes | SC Braga | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.63 | 1.13 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.25 | 1.25 | |
| Match goals | 1.88 | 2.38 | |
| Over 1.5 | 50% | 63% | |
| Over 2.5 | 25% | 63% | |
| Over 3.5 | 13% | 25% | |
| Both teams scored | 38% | 63% | |
| Clean sheets | 25% | 38% | |
| Failed to score | 50% | 13% | |
| Games | 8 | 8 |
| Guimaraes | SC Braga | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.50 | 1.30 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.30 | 1.40 | |
| Match goals | 1.80 | 2.70 | |
| Over 1.5 | 50% | 70% | |
| Over 2.5 | 20% | 70% | |
| Over 3.5 | 10% | 40% | |
| Both teams scored | 30% | 70% | |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 30% | |
| Failed to score | 60% | 10% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Guimaraes | SC Braga | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.75 | 4.25 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.00 | 2.88 | |
| Match total | 9.75 | 7.13 | 8.91 |
| Over 8.5 | 38% 3/8 | 25% 2/8 | |
| Over 9.5 | 38% 3/8 | 25% 2/8 | |
| Over 10.5 | 38% 3/8 | 25% 2/8 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.75 | 2.00 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.50 | 2.75 | |
| Match total | 5.25 | 4.75 | 4.55 |
| Over 3.5 | 75% 6/8 | 75% 6/8 | |
| Over 4.5 | 63% 5/8 | 63% 5/8 | |
| Guimaraes | SC Braga | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.80 | 4.20 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.80 | 3.20 | |
| Match total | 9.60 | 7.40 | 8.91 |
| Over 8.5 | 40% 4/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 40% 4/10 | 20% 2/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 30% 3/10 | 20% 2/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.70 | 2.10 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.50 | 2.80 | |
| Match total | 5.20 | 4.90 | 4.55 |
| Over 3.5 | 70% 7/10 | 80% 8/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 60% 6/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Goal timing
Guimaraes7 games · scored 5 · conceded 9
1
1
0-15
2
16-30
1
31-45
3
46-60
3
1
61-75
1
1
76-90
SC Braga7 games · scored 8 · conceded 10
2
1
0-15
1
16-30
2
1
31-45
2
2
46-60
1
3
61-75
1
2
76-90
Guimaraes9 games · scored 5 · conceded 12
1
1
0-15
2
16-30
1
31-45
3
46-60
3
2
61-75
1
3
76-90
SC Braga9 games · scored 12 · conceded 14
3
2
0-15
1
16-30
2
1
31-45
3
3
46-60
1
3
61-75
3
4
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Soon
Real contextLOAD90 forecast: EloLambda plus playing style (possession) and High Congestion.
Pure EloLambdaControl forecast without the LOAD90 factors, as on eScored.
Strength onlyElo and home edge only.
Full squadsBoth teams with every player available.
Neutral venueRemove home advantage.
