Hamburger SV
Attack—
Defense risk—
Hamburger SV
14th · 31 pts · 30 played
DLDLL
1–2Full time
1899 Hoffenheim
6th · 54 pts · 30 played
DLLDW
Our take
1899 Hoffenheim were slight favourites.
1899 Hoffenheim were the stronger side on L90 Strength (60 vs 35). Recent goals, xG and shots on target add to that edge for 1899 Hoffenheim. Hamburger SV had 7.1 days of rest, 1899 Hoffenheim 7.1 and had to travel 484 km.
Away travel484 kmRest days7.1 · 7.1Matches / 14d2 · 1
Hamburger SV23%
Draw21%
1899 Hoffenheim56%
Hamburger SV30%
Draw27%
1899 Hoffenheim44%
Hamburger SV23%
Draw21%
1899 Hoffenheim55%
Hamburger SV17%
Draw19%
1899 Hoffenheim64%
Hamburger SV24%
Draw22%
1899 Hoffenheim54%
Over 2.5 71%
Both score 68%
Likeliest score 1–2
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Hamburg)
No weather data yet
Referee—Not recorded
Team strength
Hamburger SV1899 Hoffenheim
35
L90 StrengthIn forecast
60
40
Current StrengthIn forecast
47
37
AttackIn forecast
46
43
DefenceIn forecast
43
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysis1899 Hoffenheim
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
Hamburger SV1899 Hoffenheim
1.10
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.97
1.60
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.47
1.03
xGVia Att/Def
1.58
1.75
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.42
+0.07
Goals minus xGContext
+0.39
67%
Scored inContext
83%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
11.60
ShotsContext
13.60
4.47
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.97
39%
On target shareContext
37%
7.64
Shots in the boxContext
9.55
63%
Box shareContext
69%
10%
ConversionContext
15%
2.17
OffsidesContext
2.29
14.27
Shots allowedContext
11.97
5.10
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.30
3.62
BlocksContext
3.39
3.39
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.07
65%
Save rateContext
69%
46%
PossessionIn forecast
55%
386
PassesContext
461
313
Accurate passesContext
372
81%
Pass accuracyContext
81%
6.83
Team ratingContext
6.89
11.73
FoulsContext
13.40
12.43
Fouls sufferedContext
8.77
2.13
Yellow cardsContext
2.00
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.07
1.20
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.60
1.90
Goals concededVia Att/Def
2.10
0.96
xGVia Att/Def
1.73
2.38
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.63
+0.24
Goals minus xGContext
-0.13
80%
Scored inContext
80%
0%
Clean sheetsContext
10%
9.50
ShotsContext
15.60
3.80
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.50
40%
On target shareContext
35%
6.00
Shots in the boxContext
10.80
59%
Box shareContext
71%
13%
ConversionContext
10%
1.57
OffsidesContext
2.43
15.70
Shots allowedContext
11.70
5.30
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.20
3.80
BlocksContext
2.44
3.40
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.00
64%
Save rateContext
58%
45%
PossessionIn forecast
58%
354
PassesContext
469
275
Accurate passesContext
381
78%
Pass accuracyContext
81%
6.78
Team ratingContext
6.83
10.70
FoulsContext
11.80
11.80
Fouls sufferedContext
7.40
2.10
Yellow cardsContext
2.10
0.20
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Hamburger SV
Rest7.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km1,256 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
1899 Hoffenheim
Rest7.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel484 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Hamburger SV |
1899 Hoffenheim |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 7.1Bundesliga 2025-2026, 18 Apr | 7.1Bundesliga 2025-2026, 18 Apr |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 484 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 1,256 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 2 / 3 | 0 / 1 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 6.9 | 6.9 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Hamburger SV
Confirmed XI
1D. Heuer Fernandes(G)
17W. Omari
25J. Torunarigha
24N. Capaldo
2W. Mikelbrencis
23A. Grønbæk
21N. Remberg
18B. Jatta
20Fábio Vieira
11R. Königsdörffer
9R. Glatzel
1899 Hoffenheim
Confirmed XI
1O. Baumann(G)
21A. Hajdari
5O. Kabak
2R. Hranáč
29B. Toure
18W. Burger
7L. Avdullahu
34V. Coufal
27A. Kramarić
11F. Asllani
19T. Lemperle
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Hamburger SV
Scores -0.03 · concedes +0.08 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
1899 Hoffenheim
Scores -0.03 · concedes +0.06 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Hamburger SV-0.2 pp
- Draw-0.4 pp
- 1899 Hoffenheim+0.6 pp
Home / Away this season
Hamburger SV · Home
1.40points per game · 15 home games
- W-D-L
- 5-6-4
- Scored
- 1.40
- Conceded
- 1.20
1899 Hoffenheim · Away
1.73points per game · 15 away games
- W-D-L
- 7-5-3
- Scored
- 1.87
- Conceded
- 1.73
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 16 this season
| Opponent | Hamburger SV | 1899 Hoffenheim |
|---|---|---|
| Werder Bremen | L 1–3 AW 3–2 H | W 2–0 A |
| VfB Stuttgart | L 0–4 AW 2–1 H | D 0–0 A |
| FC Augsburg | D 1–1 HL 0–1 A | D 2–2 AW 3–0 H |
| Borussia Dortmund | L 2–3 AD 1–1 H | W 2–1 HL 0–2 A |
| 1.FC Köln | D 1–1 HL 1–4 A | D 2–2 AL 0–1 H |
| VfL Wolfsburg | W 2–1 AL 0–1 H | D 1–1 HW 3–2 A |
| Bayer Leverkusen | L 0–1 H | W 1–0 HW 2–1 A |
| RB Leipzig | L 1–2 HL 1–2 A | L 0–5 AW 3–1 H |
| FSV Mainz 05 | D 1–1 AW 4–0 H | L 1–2 HD 1–1 A |
| Union Berlin | W 3–2 HD 0–0 A | W 3–1 HW 4–2 A |
| 1. FC Heidenheim | W 2–0 AW 2–1 H | W 4–2 AW 3–1 H |
| Bayern München | D 2–2 HL 0–5 A | L 1–5 AL 1–4 H |
| FC St. Pauli | D 0–0 AL 0–2 H | L 0–1 HW 3–0 A |
| Borussia Mönchengladbach | D 0–0 HD 0–0 A | W 5–1 H |
| SC Freiburg | L 1–2 A | W 3–0 HD 1–1 A |
| Eintracht Frankfurt | D 1–1 H | W 3–1 AL 1–3 H |
| Points | 31 of 87 · 1.07 per game | 51 of 87 · 1.76 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 1 of 1 meetings
0 Hamburger SV wins0 draws1 1899 Hoffenheim wins
Goals per game1.00 – 4.00
Over 2.5100%
Both scored100%
Clean sheets0% · 0%
- 13 Dec 20251899 Hoffenheim4–1Hamburger SV
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Hamburger SV | 1899 Hoffenheim | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.10 | 1.97 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.60 | 1.47 | |
| Match goals | 2.70 | 3.43 | 3.66 |
| Over 1.5 | 77% | 87% | |
| Over 2.5 | 53% | 70% | 71% |
| Over 3.5 | 33% | 50% | |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 67% | 68% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 20% | |
| Failed to score | 33% | 17% | |
| Games | 30 | 30 |
| Hamburger SV | 1899 Hoffenheim | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.20 | 1.60 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.90 | 2.10 | |
| Match goals | 3.10 | 3.70 | 3.66 |
| Over 1.5 | 90% | 90% | |
| Over 2.5 | 60% | 80% | 71% |
| Over 3.5 | 40% | 50% | |
| Both teams scored | 80% | 70% | 68% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 10% | |
| Failed to score | 20% | 20% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Hamburger SV | 1899 Hoffenheim | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.82 | 5.37 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.46 | 4.90 | |
| Match total | 9.28 | 10.27 | 9.68 |
| Over 8.5 | 57% 16/28 | 70% 21/30 | |
| Over 9.5 | 43% 12/28 | 63% 19/30 | |
| Over 10.5 | 29% 8/28 | 47% 14/30 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.40 | 2.07 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.27 | 1.60 | |
| Match total | 4.67 | 3.67 | 3.87 |
| Over 3.5 | 70% 21/30 | 60% 18/30 | |
| Over 4.5 | 57% 17/30 | 27% 8/30 | |
| Hamburger SV | 1899 Hoffenheim | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.78 | 6.30 | |
| Corners conceded | 6.33 | 3.90 | |
| Match total | 10.11 | 10.20 | 9.68 |
| Over 8.5 | 89% 8/9 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 56% 5/9 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 33% 3/9 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.30 | 2.20 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.40 | 1.90 | |
| Match total | 4.70 | 4.10 | 3.87 |
| Over 3.5 | 70% 7/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 60% 6/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Goal timing
Hamburger SV30 games · scored 33 · conceded 48
2
4
0-15
4
9
16-30
9
9
31-45
7
9
46-60
5
6
61-75
6
11
76-90
1899 Hoffenheim30 games · scored 59 · conceded 44
4
8
0-15
9
8
16-30
18
6
31-45
13
5
46-60
5
8
61-75
10
9
76-90
Hamburger SV10 games · scored 12 · conceded 19
0-15
2
4
16-30
6
5
31-45
2
3
46-60
1
2
61-75
1
5
76-90
1899 Hoffenheim10 games · scored 16 · conceded 21
4
0-15
2
4
16-30
6
4
31-45
4
46-60
4
61-75
4
5
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
