Hamburger SV
Attack—
Defense risk—
Hamburger SV
11th · 22 pts · 20 played
LDDDW
3–2Full time
Union Berlin
9th · 25 pts · 21 played
DDLLD
Our take
It was too close to call.
The two sides are close in strength. Hamburger SV had 7 days of rest, Union Berlin 7.8 and had to travel 255 km.
Away travel255 kmRest days7 · 7.8Matches / 14d2 · 2
Hamburger SV41%
Draw26%
Union Berlin33%
Hamburger SV40%
Draw27%
Union Berlin33%
Hamburger SV41%
Draw26%
Union Berlin32%
Hamburger SV33%
Draw26%
Union Berlin40%
Hamburger SV40%
Draw27%
Union Berlin33%
Over 2.5 53%
Both score 57%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Hamburg)
No weather data yet
Referee · GermanyFlorian Badstubner
- Cards per match 3.7
- Penalties per match 0.24
- Matches 66
Team strength
Hamburger SVUnion Berlin
37
L90 StrengthIn forecast
43
40
Current StrengthIn forecast
39
37
AttackIn forecast
42
43
DefenceIn forecast
41
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisUnion Berlin
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
Hamburger SVUnion Berlin
1.05
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.24
1.45
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.62
1.06
xGVia Att/Def
1.30
1.43
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.21
-0.01
Goals minus xGContext
-0.06
60%
Scored inContext
71%
30%
Clean sheetsContext
19%
12.65
ShotsContext
12.67
4.80
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.43
38%
On target shareContext
27%
8.42
Shots in the boxContext
9.43
65%
Box shareContext
74%
8%
ConversionContext
10%
2.41
OffsidesContext
1.81
13.55
Shots allowedContext
11.48
5.00
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.10
3.53
BlocksContext
3.53
3.39
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.94
65%
Save rateContext
65%
47%
PossessionIn forecast
39%
402
PassesContext
317
332
Accurate passesContext
229
83%
Pass accuracyContext
72%
6.85
Team ratingContext
6.73
12.25
FoulsContext
12.57
12.75
Fouls sufferedContext
10.38
2.15
Yellow cardsContext
2.29
0.05
Red cardsContext
0.10
1.20
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.20
1.30
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.70
1.01
xGVia Att/Def
1.52
1.36
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.90
+0.19
Goals minus xGContext
-0.32
70%
Scored inContext
90%
30%
Clean sheetsContext
10%
12.50
ShotsContext
13.90
5.10
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.40
41%
On target shareContext
25%
8.40
Shots in the boxContext
10.90
68%
Box shareContext
78%
10%
ConversionContext
9%
2.43
OffsidesContext
1.67
12.10
Shots allowedContext
8.70
4.67
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.20
3.11
BlocksContext
2.43
3.00
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.29
64%
Save rateContext
59%
45%
PossessionIn forecast
45%
399
PassesContext
353
326
Accurate passesContext
261
82%
Pass accuracyContext
74%
6.85
Team ratingContext
6.70
11.50
FoulsContext
12.20
13.00
Fouls sufferedContext
9.80
2.20
Yellow cardsContext
2.00
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Hamburger SV
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km1,084 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Union Berlin
Rest7.8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel255 km966 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Hamburger SV |
Union Berlin |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 7Bundesliga 2025-2026, 7 Feb | 7.8Bundesliga 2025-2026, 6 Feb |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 255 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 1,084 km | 966 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 4 | 0 / 2 / 4 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 6.2 | 7 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Hamburger SV
Confirmed XI
1D. Heuer Fernandes(G)
25J. Torunarigha
44L. Vušković
24N. Capaldo
28M. Muheim
21N. Remberg
20Fábio Vieira
18B. Jatta
27P. Otele
9R. Glatzel
11R. Königsdörffer
Union Berlin
Confirmed XI
1F. Rønnow(G)
34S. Nsoki
14L. Querfeld
5D. Doekhi
39D. Köhn
6A. Kemlein
8R. Khedira
28C. Trimmel
10Ilyas Ansah
11W. Jeong
23A. Ilić
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Hamburger SV
Scores -0.04 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Union Berlin
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.04 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Hamburger SV-0.6 pp
- Draw-0.1 pp
- Union Berlin+0.7 pp
Home / Away this season
Hamburger SV · Home
1.60points per game · 10 home games
- W-D-L
- 4-4-2
- Scored
- 1.50
- Conceded
- 1.10
Union Berlin · Away
1.10points per game · 10 away games
- W-D-L
- 3-2-5
- Scored
- 1.00
- Conceded
- 1.70
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 15 this season
| Opponent | Hamburger SV | Union Berlin |
|---|---|---|
| 1. FC Heidenheim | W 2–0 AW 2–1 H | L 1–2 H |
| Bayern München | D 2–2 HL 0–5 A | D 2–2 H |
| FC St. Pauli | D 0–0 AL 0–2 H | W 1–0 A |
| Borussia Mönchengladbach | D 0–0 HD 0–0 A | W 3–1 H |
| SC Freiburg | L 1–2 A | D 0–0 H |
| Eintracht Frankfurt | D 1–1 H | D 1–1 HW 4–3 A |
| 1899 Hoffenheim | L 1–4 A | L 1–3 AL 2–4 H |
| Werder Bremen | W 3–2 H | L 0–1 A |
| VfB Stuttgart | W 2–1 H | D 1–1 AW 2–1 H |
| FC Augsburg | L 0–1 A | D 1–1 A |
| Borussia Dortmund | D 1–1 H | L 0–3 HL 0–3 A |
| 1.FC Köln | L 1–4 A | W 1–0 A |
| VfL Wolfsburg | L 0–1 H | L 1–3 A |
| RB Leipzig | L 1–2 A | W 3–1 H |
| FSV Mainz 05 | W 4–0 H | D 2–2 H |
| Points | 21 of 57 · 1.11 per game | 24 of 57 · 1.26 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 1 of 1 meetings
0 Hamburger SV wins1 draws0 Union Berlin wins
Goals per game0.00 – 0.00
Over 2.50%
Both scored0%
Clean sheets100% · 100%
- 28 Sep 2025Union Berlin0–0Hamburger SV
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Hamburger SV | Union Berlin | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.05 | 1.24 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.45 | 1.62 | |
| Match goals | 2.50 | 2.86 | 2.81 |
| Over 1.5 | 70% | 76% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 57% | 53% |
| Over 3.5 | 30% | 38% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 62% | 57% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 19% | |
| Failed to score | 40% | 29% | |
| Games | 20 | 21 |
| Hamburger SV | Union Berlin | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.20 | 1.20 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.30 | 1.70 | |
| Match goals | 2.50 | 2.90 | 2.81 |
| Over 1.5 | 70% | 90% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 60% | 53% |
| Over 3.5 | 30% | 40% | |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 80% | 57% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 10% | |
| Failed to score | 30% | 10% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Hamburger SV | Union Berlin | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.84 | 5.10 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.05 | 4.10 | |
| Match total | 8.89 | 9.20 | 9.71 |
| Over 8.5 | 42% 8/19 | 70% 14/20 | |
| Over 9.5 | 37% 7/19 | 50% 10/20 | |
| Over 10.5 | 26% 5/19 | 25% 5/20 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.45 | 2.43 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.20 | 2.05 | |
| Match total | 4.65 | 4.48 | 3.92 |
| Over 3.5 | 70% 14/20 | 67% 14/21 | |
| Over 4.5 | 55% 11/20 | 48% 10/21 | |
| Hamburger SV | Union Berlin | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.00 | 5.56 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.44 | 2.89 | |
| Match total | 9.44 | 8.45 | 9.71 |
| Over 8.5 | 56% 5/9 | 67% 6/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 44% 4/9 | 33% 3/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 22% 2/9 | 22% 2/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.40 | 2.10 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.10 | 1.90 | |
| Match total | 4.50 | 4.00 | 3.92 |
| Over 3.5 | 60% 6/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 50% 5/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Florian Badstubner Germany · 66 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.53league 3.75
Red cards0.18league 0.19
Cards 5+33%league 39%
Fouls22.4league 20.9
Penalties0.24league 0.36
Home wins48%league 45%
Hamburger SVNo previous matches with this referee.
Union Berlin8 with this referee
Record3-3-2
Cards · opp.1.6 · 1.6
Pens for · against0 · 2
Reds1
- D15 Jan 26A · FC Augsburg1–11
- L10 May 25H · 1. FC Heidenheim0–32
- D25 Nov 23H · FC Augsburg1–12
- L6 May 23A · FC Augsburg0–12
- W1 Apr 23H · VfB Stuttgart3–01
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Hamburger SV20 games · scored 21 · conceded 29
2
4
0-15
2
5
16-30
3
4
31-45
5
6
46-60
4
4
61-75
5
6
76-90
Union Berlin21 games · scored 26 · conceded 34
2
2
0-15
3
2
16-30
4
10
31-45
4
8
46-60
4
2
61-75
9
10
76-90
Hamburger SV10 games · scored 12 · conceded 13
1
0-15
2
1
16-30
2
3
31-45
2
3
46-60
2
2
61-75
4
3
76-90
Union Berlin10 games · scored 12 · conceded 17
2
0-15
2
16-30
1
3
31-45
1
5
46-60
3
1
61-75
7
4
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
