Bundesliga Gameweek 22 Sat, Feb 14 · 14:30 Volksparkstadion, Hamburg
Hamburger SV 11th · 22 pts · 20 played
3–2Full time
Union Berlin 9th · 25 pts · 21 played
Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →
Hamburger SV40.5%fair odds 2.47
Draw26.4%fair odds 3.79
Union Berlin33.1%fair odds 3.02
Expected goals1.49 – 1.32total 2.81
Likeliest score1–112.5%

Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.

Match Opportunity

How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.

Hamburger SV

— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.

Union Berlin

— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.

About this comparison

The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.

Score matrix

Hamburger SV ↓ · Union Berlin →0123456+
06.67.35.32.30.80.20.1
18.312.57.83.51.10.30.1
26.68.85.82.60.90.20.1
33.34.42.91.30.40.10.0
41.21.61.10.50.20.00.0
50.40.50.30.10.00.00.0
6+0.10.20.10.00.00.00.0

Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are Hamburger SV goals, columns Union Berlin goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.

Most likely scores

  • 1–112.5%8.02
  • 2–18.8%11.36
  • 1–08.3%12.03
  • 1–27.8%12.76
  • 0–17.3%13.64
  • 2–06.6%15.04
  • 0–06.6%15.07
  • 2–25.8%17.15
  • 0–25.3%18.98
  • 3–14.4%22.91

Winning margin

7.7% Hamburger SV by 3+ fair 12.94
12.2% Hamburger SV by 2 fair 8.17
20.5% Hamburger SV by 1 fair 4.87
26.4% Draw fair 3.79
18.2% Union Berlin by 1 fair 5.49
9.7% Union Berlin by 2 fair 10.31
5.2% Union Berlin by 3+ fair 19.21

Goal distribution

Total goals

7%0
16%1
24%2
22%3
16%4
15%5+

Hamburger SV goals

23%0
34%1
25%2
12%3
6%4+

Union Berlin goals

27%0
35%1
23%2
10%3
5%4+

LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda

LOAD90EloLambdaChange
Hamburger SV win 40.5% 39.8% +0.7 pp
Draw 26.4% 27.0% -0.6 pp
Union Berlin win 33.1% 33.2% -0.1 pp
Over 2.5 53.3% 50.9% +2.4 pp
Both teams score 57.4% 55.6% +1.9 pp
Expected goals Hamburger SV 1.49 1.43 +0.06
Expected goals Union Berlin 1.32 1.28 +0.04

EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.

All markets model probability and fair odds

Result

  • Hamburger SV win40.5%2.47
  • Draw26.4%3.79
  • Union Berlin win33.1%3.02
  • Double chance Hamburger SV or draw66.9%1.50
  • Double chance Hamburger SV or Union Berlin73.6%1.36
  • Double chance Union Berlin or draw59.5%1.68
  • Draw no bet Hamburger SV55.0%1.82
  • Draw no bet Union Berlin45.0%2.22

Goals

  • Over 0.593.4%1.07
  • Over 1.577.7%1.29
  • Over 2.553.3%1.88
  • Over 3.531.1%3.22
  • Over 4.515.4%6.49
  • Under 1.522.3%4.49
  • Under 2.546.7%2.14
  • Under 3.568.9%1.45

Both teams to score

  • Yes57.4%1.74
  • No42.6%2.35
  • Yes and over 2.545.0%2.22
  • Hamburger SV win and yes20.5%4.87
  • Draw and yes19.7%5.07
  • Union Berlin win and yes17.2%5.83

Team goals

  • Hamburger SV over 0.577.4%1.29
  • Hamburger SV over 1.543.8%2.28
  • Hamburger SV over 2.518.8%5.32
  • Union Berlin over 0.573.4%1.36
  • Union Berlin over 1.538.2%2.62
  • Union Berlin over 2.514.8%6.73
  • Hamburger SV clean sheet26.6%3.76
  • Union Berlin clean sheet22.6%4.43
  • Hamburger SV win to nil20.0%5.01
  • Union Berlin win to nil16.0%6.27

Handicap

  • Hamburger SV −1.520.0%5.01
  • Hamburger SV −2.57.7%12.94
  • Union Berlin +1.580.0%1.25
  • Union Berlin +2.592.3%1.08
  • Union Berlin −1.514.9%6.71
  • Hamburger SV +1.585.1%1.18

Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.

Model track record Bundesliga 2025-2026

All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.

Matches scored189 Favourite won56.6% Avg chance given to result43.2% 1X2 Brier0.560 Over 2.5 called right62.4% BTTS called right57.1%

Calibration · when the favourite was given…

Favourite chanceMatchesPredictedActually won
30–40%2638.2%42.3%
40–50%5745.2%42.1%
50–60%5455.2%61.1%
60–70%2964.7%75.9%
70–80%1574.5%73.3%
80%+885.8%75.0%

LOAD90 vs Bookmaker

Compared on the same 169 of 189 scored matches.

LOAD90Bookmaker
1X2 Brier (lower is better)0.55250.5481
Avg chance given to result43.6%43.2%
Favourite won58.0%58.6%

Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off. Bookmaker identity is unavailable for 169 archived lines; these prices may come from different bookmakers.

Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 189 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.