Hamburger SV
Attack—
Defense risk—
Hamburger SV
14th · 9 pts · 11 played
LLLDL
2–1Full time
VfB Stuttgart
6th · 22 pts · 11 played
WWLWD
Our take
VfB Stuttgart were slight favourites.
VfB Stuttgart were the stronger side on L90 Strength (67 vs 32). Hamburger SV had 8 days of rest, VfB Stuttgart 2.8 and had to travel 533 km.
Away travel533 kmRest days8 · 2.8Matches / 14d1 · 2
Hamburger SV23%
Draw24%
VfB Stuttgart53%
Hamburger SV24%
Draw26%
VfB Stuttgart51%
Hamburger SV23%
Draw24%
VfB Stuttgart53%
Hamburger SV18%
Draw21%
VfB Stuttgart61%
Hamburger SV24%
Draw25%
VfB Stuttgart51%
Over 2.5 59%
Both score 59%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Hamburg)
No weather data yet
Referee · GermanySören Storks
- Cards per match 4.6
- Penalties per match 0.26
- Matches 23
Team strength
Hamburger SVVfB Stuttgart
32
L90 StrengthIn forecast
67
40
Current StrengthIn forecast
67
37
AttackIn forecast
70
43
DefenceIn forecast
58
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisVfB Stuttgart
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
Hamburger SVVfB Stuttgart
0.82
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.82
1.55
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.36
1.12
xGVia Att/Def
1.57
1.50
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.37
-0.30
Goals minus xGContext
+0.25
45%
Scored inContext
100%
27%
Clean sheetsContext
36%
12.91
ShotsContext
15.27
4.64
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.64
36%
On target shareContext
37%
8.70
Shots in the boxContext
9.73
63%
Box shareContext
64%
6%
ConversionContext
12%
2.82
OffsidesContext
2.36
14.73
Shots allowedContext
11.73
5.36
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.27
3.90
BlocksContext
3.09
3.90
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.40
67%
Save rateContext
76%
48%
PossessionIn forecast
59%
408
PassesContext
526
340
Accurate passesContext
448
83%
Pass accuracyContext
85%
6.86
Team ratingContext
6.89
12.73
FoulsContext
11.18
12.55
Fouls sufferedContext
11.91
2.18
Yellow cardsContext
1.73
0.09
Red cardsContext
0.00
0.90
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.90
1.70
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.20
1.19
xGVia Att/Def
1.74
1.54
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.41
-0.29
Goals minus xGContext
+0.16
50%
Scored inContext
80%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
40%
13.50
ShotsContext
16.80
4.90
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.90
36%
On target shareContext
35%
9.44
Shots in the boxContext
11.30
67%
Box shareContext
68%
7%
ConversionContext
11%
2.70
OffsidesContext
2.63
14.50
Shots allowedContext
11.80
5.50
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.20
3.89
BlocksContext
3.50
3.89
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.00
65%
Save rateContext
71%
49%
PossessionIn forecast
60%
414
PassesContext
514
345
Accurate passesContext
434
83%
Pass accuracyContext
84%
6.86
Team ratingContext
6.92
13.00
FoulsContext
12.10
12.80
Fouls sufferedContext
12.50
2.30
Yellow cardsContext
2.00
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Hamburger SV
Rest8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km1,159 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
VfB Stuttgart
Rest2.8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel533 km1,537 km in 14d
Schedule load19%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Hamburger SV |
VfB Stuttgart |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 19 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 8Bundesliga 2025-2026, 22 Nov | 2.8UEFA Europa League 2025-2026 - League phase, 27 Nov |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 533 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 1,159 km | 1,537 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 1 / 3 | 1 / 2 / 4 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 7 | 6 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Hamburger SV
Confirmed XI
1D. Heuer Fernandes(G)
25J. Torunarigha
44L. Vušković
24N. Capaldo
28M. Muheim
21N. Remberg
6A. Sambi Lokonga
2W. Mikelbrencis
38Alexander Røssing-Lelesiit
9R. Glatzel
14Rayan Philippe
VfB Stuttgart
Confirmed XI
33A. Nübel(G)
3R. Hendriks
24J. Chabot
2A. Al Dakhil
15P. Stenzel
28N. Nartey
30Chema Andrés
4J. Vagnoman
10C. Führich
11B. El Khannouss
27B. Bouanani
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Hamburger SV
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.04 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
VfB Stuttgart
Scores -0.02 · concedes 0.00 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Hamburger SV-0.3 pp
- Draw-0.2 pp
- VfB Stuttgart+0.4 pp
Home / Away this season
Hamburger SV · Home
1.40points per game · 5 home games
- W-D-L
- 2-1-2
- Scored
- 1.40
- Conceded
- 1.00
VfB Stuttgart · Away
1.17points per game · 6 away games
- W-D-L
- 2-1-3
- Scored
- 1.83
- Conceded
- 2.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 10 this season
| Opponent | Hamburger SV | VfB Stuttgart |
|---|---|---|
| FC Augsburg | L 0–1 A | W 3–2 H |
| Borussia Dortmund | D 1–1 H | D 3–3 A |
| 1.FC Köln | L 1–4 A | W 2–1 A |
| VfL Wolfsburg | L 0–1 H | W 3–0 A |
| RB Leipzig | L 1–2 A | L 1–3 A |
| FSV Mainz 05 | W 4–0 H | W 2–1 H |
| Union Berlin | D 0–0 A | L 1–2 A |
| 1. FC Heidenheim | W 2–1 H | W 1–0 H |
| FC St. Pauli | L 0–2 H | W 2–0 H |
| Borussia Mönchengladbach | D 0–0 A | W 1–0 H |
| Points | 9 of 30 · 0.90 per game | 22 of 30 · 2.20 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head
No earlier meetings in our data.
Goals & match trends
| Hamburger SV | VfB Stuttgart | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.82 | 1.82 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.55 | 1.36 | |
| Match goals | 2.36 | 3.18 | 3.04 |
| Over 1.5 | 64% | 82% | |
| Over 2.5 | 45% | 73% | 59% |
| Over 3.5 | 27% | 36% | |
| Both teams scored | 36% | 64% | 59% |
| Clean sheets | 27% | 36% | |
| Failed to score | 55% | 0% | |
| Games | 11 | 11 |
| Hamburger SV | VfB Stuttgart | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.90 | 1.90 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.70 | 1.20 | |
| Match goals | 2.60 | 3.10 | 3.04 |
| Over 1.5 | 70% | 80% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 60% | 59% |
| Over 3.5 | 30% | 40% | |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 40% | 59% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 40% | |
| Failed to score | 50% | 20% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Hamburger SV | VfB Stuttgart | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.55 | 5.55 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.64 | 4.64 | |
| Match total | 8.19 | 10.19 | 9.73 |
| Over 8.5 | 27% 3/11 | 64% 7/11 | |
| Over 9.5 | 27% 3/11 | 55% 6/11 | |
| Over 10.5 | 27% 3/11 | 36% 4/11 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.55 | 1.73 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.27 | 1.73 | |
| Match total | 4.82 | 3.46 | 4.11 |
| Over 3.5 | 82% 9/11 | 36% 4/11 | |
| Over 4.5 | 64% 7/11 | 27% 3/11 | |
| Hamburger SV | VfB Stuttgart | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.30 | 5.00 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.40 | 3.00 | |
| Match total | 7.70 | 8.00 | 9.73 |
| Over 8.5 | 20% 2/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 20% 2/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 20% 2/10 | 10% 1/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.70 | 2.00 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.30 | 2.50 | |
| Match total | 5.00 | 4.50 | 4.11 |
| Over 3.5 | 90% 9/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 70% 7/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Sören Storks Germany · 23 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.48league 3.95
Red cards0.13league 0.20
Cards 5+57%league 41%
Fouls21.3league 21.6
Penalties0.26league 0.33
Home wins39%league 44%
Hamburger SVNo previous matches with this referee.
VfB StuttgartNo previous matches with this referee.
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Hamburger SV11 games · scored 9 · conceded 17
2
3
0-15
4
16-30
1
1
31-45
3
3
46-60
2
2
61-75
1
4
76-90
VfB Stuttgart11 games · scored 20 · conceded 15
2
0-15
3
2
16-30
4
5
31-45
3
1
46-60
3
61-75
7
5
76-90
Hamburger SV10 games · scored 9 · conceded 17
2
3
0-15
4
16-30
1
1
31-45
3
3
46-60
2
2
61-75
1
4
76-90
VfB Stuttgart10 games · scored 19 · conceded 12
2
0-15
2
1
16-30
4
5
31-45
3
1
46-60
3
61-75
7
3
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
