Inter vs Atalanta – 14 Mar 2026

Serie A Gameweek 29 Sat, Mar 14 · 14:00 Stadio Giuseppe Meazza, Milano

Inter 1st · 67 pts · 28 played WWWWL

1–1Full time

Atalanta 7th · 46 pts · 28 played WWWLD

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Inter were clear favourites.

Inter were the stronger side on L90 Strength (83 vs 67). Recent goals, xG and shots on target add to that edge for Inter. Inter had 5.8 days of rest, Atalanta 6.9 and had to travel 45 km.

Away travel45 kmRest days5.8 · 6.9Matches / 14d2 · 2

Inter60%

Draw23%

Atalanta17%

Expected goals 1.95 – 0.95

Inter57%

Draw24%

Atalanta19%

Expected goals 1.84 – 0.97

Inter62%

Draw22%

Atalanta17%

Expected goals 2.02 – 0.95

Inter52%

Draw25%

Atalanta23%

Expected goals 1.74 – 1.07

Inter60%

Draw22%

Atalanta18%

Expected goals 2.02 – 1.00

Over 2.5 55% Both score 53% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Milano)

No weather data yet

Referee · ItalyGianluca Manganiello

Cards per match 3.6
Penalties per match 0.22
Matches 55

Team strength

Inter

Atalanta

83 L90 StrengthIn forecast 67

83 Current StrengthIn forecast 59

91 AttackIn forecast 48

73 DefenceIn forecast 45

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Inter

Attack—

Defense risk—

Atalanta

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Inter

Atalanta

2.29 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.39

0.79 Goals concededVia Att/Def 0.93

1.86 xGVia Att/Def 1.55

0.73 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.07

+0.43 Goals minus xGContext -0.16

93% Scored inContext 82%

54% Clean sheetsContext 36%

17.89 ShotsContext 14.86

6.14 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.92

34% On target shareContext 31%

12.57 Shots in the boxContext 9.86

71% Box shareContext 66%

13% ConversionContext 9%

1.96 OffsidesContext 2.35

8.07 Shots allowedContext 11.39

3.13 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.96

2.70 BlocksContext 3.15

2.41 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.44

78% Save rateContext 80%

61% PossessionIn forecast 56%

537 PassesContext 480

470 Accurate passesContext 409

88% Pass accuracyContext 85%

7.05 Team ratingContext 6.95

13.32 FoulsContext 10.86

11.18 Fouls sufferedContext 10.11

1.57 Yellow cardsContext 1.64

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.04

This league season, per match · 28 and 28 games

2.40 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.40

1.00 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.60

1.87 xGVia Att/Def 1.43

0.76 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.71

+0.53 Goals minus xGContext -0.03

90% Scored inContext 70%

50% Clean sheetsContext 20%

19.30 ShotsContext 14.80

6.60 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 5.00

34% On target shareContext 34%

15.20 Shots in the boxContext 10.30

78% Box shareContext 68%

12% ConversionContext 10%

1.67 OffsidesContext 1.89

7.50 Shots allowedContext 13.10

3.56 On target allowedVia Att/Def 5.00

2.13 BlocksContext 3.00

2.44 Goalkeeper savesContext 4.13

69% Save rateContext 72%

63% PossessionIn forecast 52%

572 PassesContext 469

506 Accurate passesContext 397

88% Pass accuracyContext 85%

7.01 Team ratingContext 6.87

10.80 FoulsContext 11.20

9.90 Fouls sufferedContext 9.10

1.60 Yellow cardsContext 2.10

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.10

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Inter

Rest5.8 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel0 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Atalanta

Rest6.9 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel45 km268 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Inter	Atalanta
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 0
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	5.8Serie A 2025-2026, 8 Mar	6.9Serie A 2025-2026, 7 Mar
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	45 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	0 km	268 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	1 / 2 / 4	1 / 2 / 4
Next matchdays after this one	8.2	8

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Inter Confirmed XI

3-5-2

1Y. Sommer(G)

30Carlos Augusto 25M. Akanji 31Y. Bisseck

32F. Dimarco 8P. Sučić 7P. Zieliński 23N. Barella 2D. Dumfries

94F. Esposito 9M. Thuram

+3 more reported missing outside this XI

Atalanta Confirmed XI

3-4-2-1

29M. Carnesecchi(G)

23S. Kolašinac 19B. Djimsiti 42G. Scalvini

47L. Bernasconi 8M. Pašalić 15M. de Roon 77D. Zappacosta

59N. Zalewski 10L. Samardžić

9G. Scamacca

+3 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Inter Scores -0.11 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Atalanta Scores -0.03 · concedes +0.04 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Inter-1.5 pp
Draw+0.7 pp
Atalanta+0.8 pp

Home / Away this season

Inter · Home 2.43points per game · 14 home games

W-D-L: 11-1-2
Scored: 2.71
Conceded: 0.86

Atalanta · Away 1.31points per game · 13 away games

W-D-L: 4-5-4
Scored: 1.15
Conceded: 1.00

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 18 this season

Opponent	Inter	Atalanta
AC Milan	L 0–1 AL 0–1 H	D 1–1 H
Genoa	W 2–0 HW 2–1 A	W 1–0 A
Lecce	W 2–0 AW 1–0 H	W 4–1 H
Juventus	W 3–2 HL 3–4 A	D 1–1 A
Sassuolo	W 5–0 AW 2–1 H	L 1–2 AL 0–3 H
Cremonese	W 2–0 AW 4–1 H	W 2–1 HD 1–1 A
Pisa	W 6–2 HW 2–0 A	D 1–1 AD 1–1 H
Udinese	W 1–0 AL 1–2 H	D 2–2 HL 0–1 A
Napoli	D 2–2 HL 1–3 A	W 2–1 HL 1–3 A
Parma	W 2–0 A	W 4–0 HD 1–1 A
Bologna	W 3–1 H	W 2–0 A
Como	W 4–0 H	D 0–0 AD 1–1 H
Lazio	W 2–0 H	W 2–0 AD 0–0 H
Verona	W 2–1 A	L 1–3 A
Fiorentina	W 3–0 H	W 2–0 H
AS Roma	W 1–0 A	W 1–0 H
Cagliari	W 2–0 A	W 2–1 H
Torino	W 5–0 H	W 2–0 HW 3–0 A
Points	64 of 81 · 2.37 per game	46 of 81 · 1.70 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 9 of 9 meetings

7 Inter wins2 draws0 Atalanta wins

Goals per game2.33 – 0.78 Over 2.567% Both scored44% Clean sheets56% · 11%

28 Dec 2025Atalanta0–1Inter
16 Mar 2025Atalanta0–2Inter
30 Aug 2024Inter4–0Atalanta
28 Feb 2024Inter4–0Atalanta
4 Nov 2023Atalanta1–2Inter
27 May 2023Inter3–2Atalanta

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Inter	Atalanta	Forecast
Scored per game	2.29	1.39
Conceded per game	0.79	0.93
Match goals	3.07	2.32	2.90
Over 1.5	79%	79%
Over 2.5	54%	39%	55%
Over 3.5	36%	18%
Both teams scored	39%	54%	53%
Clean sheets	54%	36%
Failed to score	7%	18%
Games	28	28

	Inter	Atalanta	Forecast
Scored per game	2.40	1.80
Conceded per game	0.70	0.70
Match goals	3.10	2.50	2.90
Over 1.5	70%	90%
Over 2.5	40%	50%	55%
Over 3.5	40%	20%
Both teams scored	30%	50%	53%
Clean sheets	60%	50%
Failed to score	10%	10%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Inter	Atalanta	League
Corners
Corners won	6.57	6.07
Corners conceded	2.61	4.41
Match total	9.18	10.48	8.75
Over 8.5	61% 17/28	70% 19/27
Over 9.5	54% 15/28	56% 15/27
Over 10.5	43% 12/28	44% 12/27
Cards
Cards	1.57	1.71
Opponent cards	1.71	1.50
Match total	3.28	3.21	3.93
Over 3.5	29% 8/28	43% 12/28
Over 4.5	18% 5/28	11% 3/28

	Inter	Atalanta	League
Corners
Corners won	6.50	5.89
Corners conceded	2.50	3.56
Match total	9.00	9.45	8.75
Over 8.5	50% 5/10	56% 5/9
Over 9.5	50% 5/10	33% 3/9
Over 10.5	50% 5/10	33% 3/9
Cards
Cards	1.60	2.20
Opponent cards	1.80	2.40
Match total	3.40	4.60	3.93
Over 3.5	30% 3/10	70% 7/10
Over 4.5	20% 2/10	60% 6/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Gianluca Manganiello Italy · 55 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards3.44league 3.76

Red cards0.15league 0.19

Cards 5+33%league 36%

Fouls23.9league 25.2

Penalties0.22league 0.31

Home wins40%league 40%

Inter6 with this referee

Record6-0-0 Cards · opp.1.5 · 1.3 Pens for · against1 · 0

W21 Feb 26A · Lecce2–02
W9 Nov 25H · Lazio2–03
W3 May 25H · Verona1–01
W5 Mar 23H · Lecce2–00
W6 May 22H · Empoli4–21

Atalanta3 with this referee

Record3-0-0 Cards · opp.1.3 · 0.7 Pens for · against0 · 0

W14 Sep 25H · Lecce4–10
W23 Nov 24A · Parma3–12
W30 Dec 23H · Lecce1–02

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.