Inter
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Inter were clear favourites.
Inter were the stronger side on L90 Strength (85 vs 59). Inter had 7 days of rest, Bologna 7.1 and had to travel 201 km.
Away travel201 kmRest days7 · 7.1Matches / 14d1 · 1
Inter64%
Draw22%
Bologna14%
Inter64%
Draw21%
Bologna15%
Inter63%
Draw22%
Bologna15%
Inter56%
Draw24%
Bologna19%
Inter64%
Draw21%
Bologna14%
Over 2.5 53%
Both score 49%
Likeliest score 2–0
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Milano)
No weather data yet
Referee · ItalyMarco Guida
- Cards per match 4.2
- Penalties per match 0.37
- Matches 75
Team strength
Inter
Bologna
85
L90 StrengthIn forecast
59
83
Current StrengthIn forecast
47
91
AttackIn forecast
35
73
DefenceIn forecast
48
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisBologna
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
InterBologna
2.19
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.50
0.88
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.88
1.75
xGVia Att/Def
1.30
0.87
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.05
+0.44
Goals minus xGContext
+0.20
94%
Scored inContext
75%
50%
Clean sheetsContext
38%
17.06
ShotsContext
13.63
5.50
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.60
32%
On target shareContext
32%
11.63
Shots in the boxContext
8.69
69%
Box shareContext
62%
13%
ConversionContext
11%
2.07
OffsidesContext
2.54
8.88
Shots allowedContext
9.81
3.43
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.53
3.17
BlocksContext
3.00
2.83
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.79
83%
Save rateContext
75%
59%
PossessionIn forecast
57%
520
PassesContext
429
453
Accurate passesContext
357
87%
Pass accuracyContext
83%
7.06
Team ratingContext
6.89
14.06
FoulsContext
13.94
11.13
Fouls sufferedContext
14.25
1.44
Yellow cardsContext
1.94
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.06
1.60
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.70
0.70
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.90
1.41
xGVia Att/Def
1.77
0.84
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.09
+0.19
Goals minus xGContext
-0.07
80%
Scored inContext
80%
40%
Clean sheetsContext
30%
15.60
ShotsContext
16.80
5.40
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.50
35%
On target shareContext
33%
10.20
Shots in the boxContext
11.80
67%
Box shareContext
68%
10%
ConversionContext
10%
1.80
OffsidesContext
2.50
9.20
Shots allowedContext
8.80
3.44
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.56
2.57
BlocksContext
2.56
2.78
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.29
81%
Save rateContext
77%
58%
PossessionIn forecast
54%
528
PassesContext
419
458
Accurate passesContext
349
87%
Pass accuracyContext
83%
7.03
Team ratingContext
6.95
12.80
FoulsContext
13.10
11.50
Fouls sufferedContext
13.80
1.60
Yellow cardsContext
1.60
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.20
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Inter
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km90 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Bologna
Rest7.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel201 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Inter |
Bologna |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 7Serie A 2025-2026, 28 Dec | 7.1Serie A 2025-2026, 28 Dec |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 201 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 90 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 1 / 2 | 0 / 1 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 3 | 2.9 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Inter
Confirmed XI
1Y. Sommer(G)
95A. Bastoni
25M. Akanji
31Y. Bisseck
32F. Dimarco
7P. Zieliński
20H. Çalhanoğlu
23N. Barella
11L. de Lima
9M. Thuram
10L. Martínez
Bologna
Confirmed XI
13F. Ravaglia(G)
22C. Lykogiannis
26J. Lucumí
14T. Heggem
2E. Holm
19L. Ferguson
6N. Moro
28N. Cambiaghi
21J. Odgaard
11J. Rowe
9S. Castro
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Inter
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Bologna
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Inter+0.3 pp
- Draw-0.2 pp
- Bologna-0.2 pp
Home / Away this season
Inter · Home
2.25points per game · 8 home games
- W-D-L
- 6-0-2
- Scored
- 2.63
- Conceded
- 0.63
Bologna · Away
1.50points per game · 8 away games
- W-D-L
- 3-3-2
- Scored
- 1.63
- Conceded
- 1.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 14 this season
| Opponent | Inter | Bologna |
|---|---|---|
| Genoa | W 2–1 A | W 2–1 H |
| Como | W 4–0 H | W 1–0 H |
| Pisa | W 2–0 A | W 4–0 H |
| AC Milan | L 0–1 H | L 0–1 A |
| Lazio | W 2–0 H | D 1–1 A |
| Fiorentina | W 3–0 H | D 2–2 A |
| Napoli | L 1–3 A | W 2–0 H |
| AS Roma | W 1–0 A | L 0–1 A |
| Cremonese | W 4–1 H | L 1–3 H |
| Cagliari | W 2–0 A | W 2–0 A |
| Sassuolo | W 2–1 H | D 1–1 H |
| Juventus | L 3–4 A | L 0–1 H |
| Udinese | L 1–2 H | W 3–0 A |
| Torino | W 5–0 H | D 0–0 H |
| Points | 30 of 42 · 2.14 per game | 22 of 42 · 1.57 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 8 of 8 meetings
3 Inter wins2 draws3 Bologna wins
Goals per game2.25 – 1.25
Over 2.563%
Both scored63%
Clean sheets13% · 25%
- 20 Apr 2025Bologna1–0Inter
- 15 Jan 2025Inter2–2Bologna
- 9 Mar 2024Bologna0–1Inter
- 7 Oct 2023Inter2–2Bologna
- 26 Feb 2023Bologna1–0Inter
- 9 Nov 2022Inter6–1Bologna
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Inter | Bologna | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.19 | 1.50 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.88 | 0.88 | |
| Match goals | 3.06 | 2.38 | 2.81 |
| Over 1.5 | 81% | 69% | |
| Over 2.5 | 63% | 44% | 53% |
| Over 3.5 | 31% | 31% | |
| Both teams scored | 44% | 44% | 49% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 38% | |
| Failed to score | 6% | 25% | |
| Games | 16 | 16 |
| Inter | Bologna | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.80 | 1.70 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.60 | 0.90 | |
| Match goals | 2.40 | 2.60 | 2.81 |
| Over 1.5 | 70% | 80% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 50% | 53% |
| Over 3.5 | 20% | 30% | |
| Both teams scored | 30% | 60% | 49% |
| Clean sheets | 60% | 30% | |
| Failed to score | 10% | 20% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Inter | Bologna | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 6.88 | 5.06 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.06 | 3.94 | |
| Match total | 9.94 | 9.00 | 8.89 |
| Over 8.5 | 75% 12/16 | 56% 9/16 | |
| Over 9.5 | 63% 10/16 | 44% 7/16 | |
| Over 10.5 | 44% 7/16 | 31% 5/16 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.44 | 2.06 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.69 | 2.63 | |
| Match total | 3.13 | 4.69 | 4.02 |
| Over 3.5 | 25% 4/16 | 75% 12/16 | |
| Over 4.5 | 13% 2/16 | 63% 10/16 | |
| Inter | Bologna | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 6.50 | 5.33 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.10 | 4.33 | |
| Match total | 9.60 | 9.66 | 8.89 |
| Over 8.5 | 80% 8/10 | 44% 4/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 60% 6/10 | 33% 3/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 40% 4/10 | 22% 2/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.60 | 1.80 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.60 | 2.30 | |
| Match total | 3.20 | 4.10 | 4.02 |
| Over 3.5 | 30% 3/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 20% 2/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Marco Guida Italy · 75 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.05league 3.89
Red cards0.12league 0.17
Cards 5+40%league 38%
Fouls24.2league 25.8
Penalties0.37league 0.30
Home wins43%league 39%
Inter9 with this referee
Record4-4-1
Cards · opp.1.8 · 2.2
Pens for · against2 · 1
- W30 Nov 25A · Pisa2–01
- D27 Oct 24H · Juventus4–42
- W10 Feb 24A · AS Roma4–20
- D26 Nov 23A · Juventus1–11
- D7 Oct 23H · Bologna2–22
Bologna2 with this referee
Record1-1-0
Cards · opp.3.5 · 3.0
Pens for · against1 · 0
- W17 Dec 23H · AS Roma2–04
- D7 Oct 23A · Inter2–23
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Inter16 games · scored 35 · conceded 14
7
1
0-15
4
1
16-30
3
4
31-45
5
2
46-60
8
2
61-75
8
4
76-90
Bologna16 games · scored 24 · conceded 14
2
0-15
3
16-30
6
3
31-45
7
2
46-60
4
5
61-75
4
2
76-90
Inter10 games · scored 16 · conceded 7
3
1
0-15
1
16-30
2
1
31-45
2
2
46-60
4
1
61-75
4
2
76-90
Bologna10 games · scored 17 · conceded 9
1
0-15
2
1
16-30
2
4
31-45
6
1
46-60
4
2
61-75
3
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
