Inter
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Inter were clear favourites.
Inter were the stronger side on L90 Strength (85 vs 53). Absences weigh more on Inter. Inter had 4.2 days of rest, Fiorentina 3.1 and had to travel 248 km.
Away travel248 kmRest days4.2 · 3.1Matches / 14d2 · 2
Inter66%
Draw21%
Fiorentina13%
Inter68%
Draw20%
Fiorentina12%
Inter67%
Draw21%
Fiorentina12%
Inter59%
Draw24%
Fiorentina17%
Inter67%
Draw20%
Fiorentina13%
Over 2.5 53%
Both score 47%
Likeliest score 2–0
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Milano)
No weather data yet
Referee · ItalySimone Sozza
- Cards per match 4.4
- Penalties per match 0.46
- Matches 78
Team strength
Inter
Fiorentina
85
L90 StrengthIn forecast
53
83
Current StrengthIn forecast
39
91
AttackIn forecast
42
73
DefenceIn forecast
34
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisFiorentina
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
InterFiorentina
2.38
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.88
1.38
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.50
1.87
xGVia Att/Def
1.33
0.92
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.50
+0.51
Goals minus xGContext
-0.45
100%
Scored inContext
75%
38%
Clean sheetsContext
25%
18.13
ShotsContext
11.50
5.38
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
2.63
30%
On target shareContext
23%
12.13
Shots in the boxContext
6.88
67%
Box shareContext
55%
13%
ConversionContext
8%
2.29
OffsidesContext
2.86
9.13
Shots allowedContext
11.63
4.00
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.63
3.29
BlocksContext
2.13
3.40
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.00
81%
Save rateContext
65%
59%
PossessionIn forecast
50%
510
PassesContext
373
444
Accurate passesContext
304
87%
Pass accuracyContext
82%
7.01
Team ratingContext
6.68
14.50
FoulsContext
13.38
10.63
Fouls sufferedContext
17.13
1.38
Yellow cardsContext
1.88
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
2.30
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.40
1.10
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.30
2.27
xGVia Att/Def
1.42
0.88
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.32
+0.03
Goals minus xGContext
-0.02
100%
Scored inContext
80%
50%
Clean sheetsContext
40%
18.00
ShotsContext
13.20
5.10
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.60
28%
On target shareContext
27%
12.60
Shots in the boxContext
8.70
71%
Box shareContext
63%
13%
ConversionContext
11%
1.86
OffsidesContext
3.00
8.50
Shots allowedContext
10.40
4.00
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.30
2.78
BlocksContext
2.33
3.33
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.00
80%
Save rateContext
70%
58%
PossessionIn forecast
52%
507
PassesContext
400
441
Accurate passesContext
330
87%
Pass accuracyContext
83%
7.04
Team ratingContext
6.75
13.80
FoulsContext
12.90
12.50
Fouls sufferedContext
16.80
1.60
Yellow cardsContext
1.70
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Inter
Rest4.2 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km2,272 km in 14d
Schedule load5%Low
Fiorentina
Rest3.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel248 km496 km in 14d
Schedule load8%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Inter |
Fiorentina |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 5 | Low · 8 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 4.2Serie A 2025-2026, 25 Oct | 3.1Serie A 2025-2026, 26 Oct |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 248 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 2,272 km | 496 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 3 | 1 / 2 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 3.7 | 3.8 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Inter
Confirmed XI
1Y. Sommer(G)
95A. Bastoni
31Y. Bisseck
25M. Akanji
32F. Dimarco
8P. Sučić
20H. Çalhanoğlu
23N. Barella
2D. Dumfries
10L. Martínez
94F. Esposito
Fiorentina
Confirmed XI
43David de Gea(G)
26M. Viti
18Pablo Marí
15P. Comuzzo
21R. Gosens
27C. Ndour
8R. Mandragora
7S. Sohm
2Dodô
10A. Guðmundsson
20M. Kean
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Inter
Scores -0.04 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Fiorentina
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Inter-1.0 pp
- Draw+0.5 pp
- Fiorentina+0.6 pp
Home / Away this season
Inter · Home
2.25points per game · 4 home games
- W-D-L
- 3-0-1
- Scored
- 3.00
- Conceded
- 1.00
Fiorentina · Away
0.75points per game · 4 away games
- W-D-L
- 0-3-1
- Scored
- 0.50
- Conceded
- 0.75
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 4 this season
| Opponent | Inter | Fiorentina |
|---|---|---|
| Napoli | L 1–3 A | L 1–3 H |
| AS Roma | W 1–0 A | L 1–2 H |
| Cagliari | W 2–0 A | D 1–1 A |
| Torino | W 5–0 H | D 0–0 A |
| Points | 9 of 12 · 2.25 per game | 2 of 12 · 0.50 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 8 of 8 meetings
5 Inter wins1 draws2 Fiorentina wins
Goals per game1.88 – 1.25
Over 2.563%
Both scored50%
Clean sheets25% · 25%
- 10 Feb 2025Inter2–1Fiorentina
- 6 Feb 2025Fiorentina3–0Inter
- 28 Jan 2024Fiorentina0–1Inter
- 3 Sep 2023Inter4–0Fiorentina
- 1 Apr 2023Inter0–1Fiorentina
- 22 Oct 2022Fiorentina3–4Inter
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Inter | Fiorentina | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.38 | 0.88 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.38 | 1.50 | |
| Match goals | 3.75 | 2.38 | 2.80 |
| Over 1.5 | 88% | 75% | |
| Over 2.5 | 75% | 63% | 53% |
| Over 3.5 | 50% | 25% | |
| Both teams scored | 63% | 75% | 47% |
| Clean sheets | 38% | 25% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 25% | |
| Games | 8 | 8 |
| Inter | Fiorentina | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.38 | 0.88 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.38 | 1.50 | |
| Match goals | 3.75 | 2.38 | 2.80 |
| Over 1.5 | 88% | 75% | |
| Over 2.5 | 75% | 63% | 53% |
| Over 3.5 | 50% | 25% | |
| Both teams scored | 63% | 75% | 47% |
| Clean sheets | 38% | 25% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 25% | |
| Games | 8 | 8 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Inter | Fiorentina | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 7.50 | 4.00 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.13 | 4.50 | |
| Match total | 10.63 | 8.50 | 9.08 |
| Over 8.5 | 75% 6/8 | 50% 4/8 | |
| Over 9.5 | 63% 5/8 | 50% 4/8 | |
| Over 10.5 | 50% 4/8 | 25% 2/8 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.38 | 1.88 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.63 | 2.25 | |
| Match total | 3.01 | 4.13 | 4.00 |
| Over 3.5 | 25% 2/8 | 63% 5/8 | |
| Over 4.5 | 13% 1/8 | 50% 4/8 | |
| Inter | Fiorentina | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 6.89 | 4.56 | |
| Corners conceded | 2.89 | 4.00 | |
| Match total | 9.78 | 8.56 | 9.08 |
| Over 8.5 | 56% 5/9 | 44% 4/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 44% 4/9 | 44% 4/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 33% 3/9 | 22% 2/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.60 | 1.70 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.60 | 1.90 | |
| Match total | 3.20 | 3.60 | 4.00 |
| Over 3.5 | 20% 2/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 10% 1/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Simone Sozza Italy · 78 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.27league 3.91
Red cards0.15league 0.12
Cards 5+42%league 39%
Fouls24.9league 25.7
Penalties0.46league 0.29
Home wins36%league 39%
Inter5 with this referee
Record5-0-0
Cards · opp.2.0 · 2.6
Pens for · against2 · 0
- W4 Nov 23A · Atalanta2–11
- W16 Sep 23H · AC Milan5–12
- W4 Jan 23H · Napoli1–03
- W8 Oct 22A · Sassuolo2–12
- W23 Apr 22H · AS Roma3–12
Fiorentina6 with this referee
Record1-2-3
Cards · opp.2.7 · 2.8
Pens for · against1 · 0
Reds1
- D24 Aug 25A · Cagliari1–12
- W27 Oct 24H · AS Roma5–12
- D25 Aug 24H · Venezia0–01
- L13 Nov 22A · AC Milan1–24
- L6 Nov 21A · Juventus0–14
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Inter8 games · scored 19 · conceded 11
4
1
0-15
3
1
16-30
2
3
31-45
4
1
46-60
3
1
61-75
3
4
76-90
Fiorentina7 games · scored 6 · conceded 10
1
2
0-15
3
16-30
31-45
1
2
46-60
2
1
61-75
2
2
76-90
Inter10 games · scored 23 · conceded 11
4
1
0-15
3
1
16-30
5
3
31-45
5
1
46-60
2
1
61-75
4
4
76-90
Fiorentina9 games · scored 13 · conceded 11
2
4
0-15
1
3
16-30
31-45
2
2
46-60
1
1
61-75
7
1
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
