Juventus
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
Juventus73.6%fair odds 1.36
Draw17.7%fair odds 5.65
Lecce8.7%fair odds 11.43
Expected goals2.27 – 0.66total 2.93
Likeliest score2–013.8%
Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.
Match Opportunity
How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.
Lecce
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
About this comparison
The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.
Score matrix
| Juventus ↓ · Lecce → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.7 | 3.1 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 11.7 | 8.4 | 2.6 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 2 | 13.8 | 9.1 | 3.0 | 0.7 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 3 | 10.4 | 6.9 | 2.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 5.9 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 2.7 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 6+ | 1.5 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are Juventus goals, columns Lecce goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.
Most likely scores
- 2–013.8%7.27
- 1–011.7%8.57
- 3–010.4%9.59
- 2–19.1%11.02
- 1–18.4%11.90
- 3–16.9%14.54
- 4–05.9%16.86
- 0–05.7%17.42
- 4–13.9%25.57
- 0–13.1%32.41
Winning margin
28.2%
Juventus by 3+
fair 3.55
22.1%
Juventus by 2
fair 4.53
23.3%
Juventus by 1
fair 4.29
17.7%
Draw
fair 5.65
6.5%
Lecce by 1
fair 15.47
1.9%
Lecce by 2
fair 53.89
0.4%
Lecce by 3+
fair 232.82
Goal distribution
Total goals
6%0
15%1
23%2
22%3
16%4
17%5+
Juventus goals
10%0
23%1
27%2
20%3
20%4+
Lecce goals
52%0
34%1
11%2
2%3
0%4+
LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda
| LOAD90 | EloLambda | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Juventus win | 73.6% | 75.0% | -1.5 pp |
| Draw | 17.7% | 16.3% | +1.4 pp |
| Lecce win | 8.7% | 8.6% | +0.1 pp |
| Over 2.5 | 56.2% | 61.7% | -5.6 pp |
| Both teams score | 43.7% | 47.6% | -3.9 pp |
| Expected goals Juventus | 2.27 | 2.46 | -0.19 |
| Expected goals Lecce | 0.66 | 0.73 | -0.07 |
EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.
All markets model probability and fair odds
Result
- Juventus win73.6%1.36
- Draw17.7%5.65
- Lecce win8.7%11.43
- Double chance Juventus or draw91.3%1.10
- Double chance Juventus or Lecce82.3%1.21
- Double chance Lecce or draw26.4%3.78
- Draw no bet Juventus89.4%1.12
- Draw no bet Lecce10.6%9.41
Goals
- Over 0.594.3%1.06
- Over 1.579.5%1.26
- Over 2.556.2%1.78
- Over 3.533.8%2.96
- Over 4.517.4%5.76
- Under 1.520.5%4.88
- Under 2.543.8%2.28
- Under 3.566.2%1.51
Both teams to score
- Yes43.7%2.29
- No56.3%1.78
- Yes and over 2.535.3%2.83
- Juventus win and yes27.6%3.62
- Draw and yes11.9%8.37
- Lecce win and yes4.2%23.79
Team goals
- Juventus over 0.589.7%1.11
- Juventus over 1.566.3%1.51
- Juventus over 2.539.7%2.52
- Lecce over 0.548.3%2.07
- Lecce over 1.514.2%7.05
- Lecce over 2.52.9%34.00
- Juventus clean sheet51.7%1.93
- Lecce clean sheet10.3%9.72
- Juventus win to nil46.0%2.18
- Lecce win to nil4.5%22.00
Handicap
- Juventus −1.550.2%1.99
- Juventus −2.528.2%3.55
- Lecce +1.549.8%2.01
- Lecce +2.571.8%1.39
- Lecce −1.52.3%43.76
- Juventus +1.597.7%1.02
Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.
Model track record Serie A 2025-2026
All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.
Matches scored170
Favourite won48.8%
Avg chance given to result40.0%
1X2 Brier0.613
Over 2.5 called right56.5%
BTTS called right47.6%
Calibration · when the favourite was given…
| Favourite chance | Matches | Predicted | Actually won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40% | 25 | 37.9% | 36.0% |
| 40–50% | 57 | 44.7% | 47.4% |
| 50–60% | 40 | 54.7% | 37.5% |
| 60–70% | 31 | 64.5% | 67.7% |
| 70–80% | 12 | 72.9% | 66.7% |
| 80%+ | 5 | 81.9% | 60.0% |
LOAD90 vs Bookmaker
Compared on the same 149 of 170 scored matches.
| LOAD90 | Bookmaker | |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 Brier (lower is better) | 0.6086 | 0.5907 |
| Avg chance given to result | 39.9% | 40.3% |
| Favourite won | 48.3% | 49.0% |
Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off. Bookmaker identity is unavailable for 149 archived lines; these prices may come from different bookmakers.
Latest results
- ✗Genoa 1–1 Pisa54·26·20
- ✗Sassuolo 1–1 Parma41·29·30
- ✓Como 1–0 Udinese58·24·18
- ✓Cagliari 0–1 AC Milan19·25·56
- ✓AS Roma 3–1 Genoa67·21·12
- ✓Atalanta 0–1 Inter29·27·44
- ✗Bologna 1–1 Sassuolo63·23·15
- ✓Cremonese 0–2 Napoli18·24·58
- ✓AC Milan 3–0 Verona72·18·9
- ✓Pisa 0–2 Juventus14·22·64
Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 170 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.