Juventus
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Juventus were clear favourites.
Juventus were the stronger side on L90 Strength (70 vs 22). Juventus had 6.9 days of rest, Lecce 7.1 and had to travel 1,003 km.
Away travel1,003 kmRest days6.9 · 7.1Matches / 14d2 · 1
Juventus74%
Draw18%
Lecce9%
Juventus74%
Draw17%
Lecce9%
Juventus73%
Draw18%
Lecce9%
Juventus67%
Draw21%
Lecce12%
Juventus75%
Draw16%
Lecce9%
Over 2.5 56%
Both score 44%
Likeliest score 2–0
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Torino)
No weather data yet
RefereeGiuseppe Collu
- Cards per match 4.2
- Penalties per match 0.24
- Matches 17
Team strength
Juventus
Lecce
70
L90 StrengthIn forecast
22
67
Current StrengthIn forecast
28
57
AttackIn forecast
36
76
DefenceIn forecast
30
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisLecce
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
JuventusLecce
1.35
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.69
0.88
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.38
1.40
xGVia Att/Def
0.81
0.89
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.28
-0.05
Goals minus xGContext
-0.12
76%
Scored inContext
50%
35%
Clean sheetsContext
38%
14.94
ShotsContext
10.13
5.29
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
2.87
35%
On target shareContext
27%
9.12
Shots in the boxContext
5.81
60%
Box shareContext
58%
9%
ConversionContext
7%
1.71
OffsidesContext
1.33
10.53
Shots allowedContext
11.69
3.13
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.60
2.88
BlocksContext
3.06
2.19
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.13
70%
Save rateContext
68%
56%
PossessionIn forecast
45%
496
PassesContext
339
428
Accurate passesContext
260
86%
Pass accuracyContext
77%
6.91
Team ratingContext
6.73
12.94
FoulsContext
12.69
10.76
Fouls sufferedContext
14.25
1.59
Yellow cardsContext
1.69
0.06
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.50
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.60
0.80
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.20
1.69
xGVia Att/Def
0.86
0.92
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.19
-0.19
Goals minus xGContext
-0.26
90%
Scored inContext
40%
40%
Clean sheetsContext
40%
15.90
ShotsContext
10.70
6.50
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
2.70
41%
On target shareContext
25%
10.30
Shots in the boxContext
5.80
61%
Box shareContext
54%
9%
ConversionContext
6%
1.88
OffsidesContext
1.29
10.20
Shots allowedContext
11.10
3.44
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.44
3.20
BlocksContext
3.20
3.13
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.11
83%
Save rateContext
70%
54%
PossessionIn forecast
47%
512
PassesContext
350
444
Accurate passesContext
269
87%
Pass accuracyContext
77%
6.97
Team ratingContext
6.79
13.30
FoulsContext
13.60
9.80
Fouls sufferedContext
14.50
1.60
Yellow cardsContext
1.70
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Juventus
Rest6.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km527 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Lecce
Rest7.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel1,003 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load12%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Juventus |
Lecce |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 12 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 6.9Serie A 2025-2026, 27 Dec | 7.1Serie A 2025-2026, 27 Dec |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 1,003 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 527 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 4 | 0 / 1 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 3.1 | 3 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Juventus
Confirmed XI
16M. Di Gregorio(G)
27A. Cambiaso
6L. Kelly
3Bremer
15P. Kalulu
19K. Thuram
5M. Locatelli
10K. Yıldız
22W. McKennie
7Francisco Conceição
30J. David
Lecce
Confirmed XI
30W. Falcone(G)
25A. Gallo
44Tiago Gabriel
4E. Gaspar
13M. Pérez
93Y. Maleh
20Y. Ramadani
77M. Kaba
19L. Banda
22F. Camarda
50S. Pierotti
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Juventus
Scores -0.03 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Lecce
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.06 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Juventus+0.6 pp
- Draw-0.3 pp
- Lecce-0.3 pp
Home / Away this season
Juventus · Home
2.25points per game · 8 home games
- W-D-L
- 5-3-0
- Scored
- 1.75
- Conceded
- 0.88
Lecce · Away
1.00points per game · 7 away games
- W-D-L
- 2-1-4
- Scored
- 0.71
- Conceded
- 1.57
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 15 this season
| Opponent | Juventus | Lecce |
|---|---|---|
| Pisa | W 2–0 A | W 1–0 H |
| Bologna | W 1–0 A | D 2–2 H |
| Napoli | L 1–2 A | L 0–1 H |
| Cagliari | W 2–1 H | L 1–2 H |
| Fiorentina | D 1–1 A | W 1–0 A |
| Torino | D 0–0 H | W 2–1 H |
| Cremonese | W 2–1 A | L 0–2 A |
| Udinese | W 3–1 H | L 2–3 A |
| Lazio | L 0–1 A | L 0–2 A |
| Como | L 0–2 A | L 0–3 H |
| AC Milan | D 0–0 H | L 0–2 H |
| Atalanta | D 1–1 H | L 1–4 A |
| Verona | D 1–1 A | D 0–0 H |
| Genoa | W 1–0 A | D 0–0 A |
| Parma | W 2–0 H | W 1–0 A |
| Points | 26 of 45 · 1.73 per game | 15 of 45 · 1.00 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 6 of 6 meetings
5 Juventus wins1 draws0 Lecce wins
Goals per game1.67 – 0.50
Over 2.550%
Both scored50%
Clean sheets50% · 0%
- 12 Apr 2025Juventus2–1Lecce
- 1 Dec 2024Lecce1–1Juventus
- 21 Jan 2024Lecce0–3Juventus
- 26 Sep 2023Juventus1–0Lecce
- 3 May 2023Juventus2–1Lecce
- 29 Oct 2022Lecce0–1Juventus
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Juventus | Lecce | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.35 | 0.69 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.88 | 1.38 | |
| Match goals | 2.24 | 2.06 | 2.93 |
| Over 1.5 | 71% | 56% | |
| Over 2.5 | 35% | 38% | 56% |
| Over 3.5 | 12% | 19% | |
| Both teams scored | 53% | 31% | 44% |
| Clean sheets | 35% | 38% | |
| Failed to score | 24% | 50% | |
| Games | 17 | 16 |
| Juventus | Lecce | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.40 | 0.60 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.80 | 1.20 | |
| Match goals | 2.20 | 1.80 | 2.93 |
| Over 1.5 | 70% | 50% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 30% | 56% |
| Over 3.5 | 10% | 10% | |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 20% | 44% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 40% | |
| Failed to score | 20% | 60% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Juventus | Lecce | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.73 | 5.31 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.27 | 5.00 | |
| Match total | 9.00 | 10.31 | 8.84 |
| Over 8.5 | 40% 6/15 | 88% 14/16 | |
| Over 9.5 | 40% 6/15 | 69% 11/16 | |
| Over 10.5 | 27% 4/15 | 38% 6/16 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.65 | 1.69 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.59 | 1.88 | |
| Match total | 4.24 | 3.57 | 4.03 |
| Over 3.5 | 65% 11/17 | 56% 9/16 | |
| Over 4.5 | 53% 9/17 | 38% 6/16 | |
| Juventus | Lecce | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.50 | 5.70 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.38 | 4.40 | |
| Match total | 9.88 | 10.10 | 8.84 |
| Over 8.5 | 50% 4/8 | 80% 8/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 4/8 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 25% 2/8 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.60 | 1.70 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.60 | 2.20 | |
| Match total | 4.20 | 3.90 | 4.03 |
| Over 3.5 | 70% 7/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 60% 6/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Giuseppe Collu 17 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.12league 3.90
Red cards0.06league 0.16
Cards 5+29%league 38%
Fouls24.6league 25.9
Penalties0.24league 0.30
Home wins47%league 39%
JuventusNo previous matches with this referee.
Lecce3 with this referee
Record0-1-2
Cards · opp.2.0 · 1.7
Pens for · against1 · 0
- L28 Oct 25H · Napoli0–12
- D16 Feb 25A · Monza0–02
- L2 Nov 24A · Bologna0–12
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Juventus17 games · scored 23 · conceded 15
3
3
0-15
2
2
16-30
4
3
31-45
2
1
46-60
6
1
61-75
6
5
76-90
Lecce16 games · scored 11 · conceded 22
2
0-15
3
3
16-30
1
4
31-45
1
3
46-60
1
8
61-75
3
4
76-90
Juventus10 games · scored 15 · conceded 8
2
0-15
1
2
16-30
4
31-45
3
1
46-60
5
61-75
2
3
76-90
Lecce10 games · scored 6 · conceded 12
0-15
3
3
16-30
1
31-45
1
2
46-60
1
3
61-75
1
3
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
