Juventus
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Juventus were clear favourites.
Juventus were the stronger side on L90 Strength (65 vs 29). Juventus had 2.9 days of rest, Udinese 4.2 and had to travel 446 km.
Away travel446 kmRest days2.9 · 4.2Matches / 14d2 · 2
Juventus66%
Draw21%
Udinese13%
Juventus66%
Draw20%
Udinese13%
Juventus65%
Draw22%
Udinese13%
Juventus58%
Draw24%
Udinese18%
Juventus67%
Draw20%
Udinese13%
Over 2.5 53%
Both score 48%
Likeliest score 2–0
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Torino)
No weather data yet
Referee · ItalyMarco Di Bello
- Cards per match 4.4
- Penalties per match 0.40
- Matches 63
Team strength
Juventus
Udinese
65
L90 StrengthIn forecast
29
64
Current StrengthIn forecast
32
57
AttackIn forecast
22
76
DefenceIn forecast
18
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisUdinese
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
JuventusUdinese
1.13
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.25
1.00
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.50
1.13
xGVia Att/Def
1.10
1.01
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.91
+0.00
Goals minus xGContext
+0.15
63%
Scored inContext
88%
38%
Clean sheetsContext
13%
15.13
ShotsContext
11.88
4.88
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.75
32%
On target shareContext
32%
8.88
Shots in the boxContext
6.57
60%
Box shareContext
51%
7%
ConversionContext
11%
1.50
OffsidesContext
1.67
11.75
Shots allowedContext
11.13
3.13
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.63
2.88
BlocksContext
2.13
2.00
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.13
64%
Save rateContext
59%
58%
PossessionIn forecast
49%
482
PassesContext
375
416
Accurate passesContext
309
86%
Pass accuracyContext
82%
6.84
Team ratingContext
6.85
12.63
FoulsContext
12.38
11.38
Fouls sufferedContext
12.25
2.13
Yellow cardsContext
2.25
0.13
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.30
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.20
1.50
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.70
1.03
xGVia Att/Def
1.06
1.36
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.18
+0.27
Goals minus xGContext
+0.14
60%
Scored inContext
80%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
10%
14.00
ShotsContext
11.40
4.50
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.50
32%
On target shareContext
31%
8.30
Shots in the boxContext
6.44
60%
Box shareContext
53%
9%
ConversionContext
11%
1.78
OffsidesContext
1.57
14.20
Shots allowedContext
13.80
4.30
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.70
4.10
BlocksContext
3.40
2.70
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.00
63%
Save rateContext
64%
54%
PossessionIn forecast
46%
460
PassesContext
357
394
Accurate passesContext
291
86%
Pass accuracyContext
82%
6.72
Team ratingContext
6.83
13.80
FoulsContext
12.70
10.50
Fouls sufferedContext
11.30
1.80
Yellow cardsContext
2.30
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Juventus
Rest2.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km1,324 km in 14d
Schedule load8%Low
Udinese
Rest4.2 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel446 km542 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Juventus |
Udinese |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 8 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 2.9Serie A 2025-2026, 26 Oct | 4.2Serie A 2025-2026, 25 Oct |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 446 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 1,324 km | 542 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 3 | 1 / 2 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 3.1 | 2.9 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Juventus
Confirmed XI
16M. Di Gregorio(G)
6L. Kelly
4F. Gatti
15P. Kalulu
5M. Locatelli
18F. Kostić
10K. Yıldız
22W. McKennie
27A. Cambiaso
9D. Vlahović
20I. Openda
Udinese
Confirmed XI
40M. Okoye(G)
28O. Solet
27C. Kabasele
2S. Goglichidze
11H. Kamara
14A. Atta
8J. Karlström
24J. Piotrowski
19K. Ehizibue
9K. Davis
10N. Zaniolo
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Juventus
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Udinese
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.04 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Juventus+0.3 pp
- Draw-0.3 pp
- Udinese+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
Juventus · Home
2.00points per game · 4 home games
- W-D-L
- 2-2-0
- Scored
- 1.75
- Conceded
- 1.00
Udinese · Away
1.75points per game · 4 away games
- W-D-L
- 2-1-1
- Scored
- 1.25
- Conceded
- 1.25
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 3 this season
| Opponent | Juventus | Udinese |
|---|---|---|
| AC Milan | D 0–0 H | L 0–3 H |
| Verona | D 1–1 A | D 1–1 H |
| Inter | W 4–3 H | W 2–1 A |
| Points | 5 of 9 · 1.67 per game | 4 of 9 · 1.33 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 8 of 8 meetings
6 Juventus wins1 draws1 Udinese wins
Goals per game1.63 – 0.38
Over 2.525%
Both scored13%
Clean sheets75% · 13%
- 18 May 2025Juventus2–0Udinese
- 2 Nov 2024Udinese0–2Juventus
- 12 Feb 2024Juventus0–1Udinese
- 20 Aug 2023Udinese0–3Juventus
- 4 Jun 2023Udinese0–1Juventus
- 7 Jan 2023Juventus1–0Udinese
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Juventus | Udinese | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.13 | 1.25 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.00 | 1.50 | |
| Match goals | 2.13 | 2.75 | 2.81 |
| Over 1.5 | 63% | 88% | |
| Over 2.5 | 13% | 50% | 53% |
| Over 3.5 | 13% | 25% | |
| Both teams scored | 38% | 75% | 48% |
| Clean sheets | 38% | 13% | |
| Failed to score | 38% | 13% | |
| Games | 8 | 8 |
| Juventus | Udinese | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.13 | 1.25 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.00 | 1.50 | |
| Match goals | 2.13 | 2.75 | 2.81 |
| Over 1.5 | 63% | 88% | |
| Over 2.5 | 13% | 50% | 53% |
| Over 3.5 | 13% | 25% | |
| Both teams scored | 38% | 75% | 48% |
| Clean sheets | 38% | 13% | |
| Failed to score | 38% | 13% | |
| Games | 8 | 8 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Juventus | Udinese | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.29 | 4.57 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.57 | 5.29 | |
| Match total | 9.86 | 9.86 | 9.08 |
| Over 8.5 | 43% 3/7 | 57% 4/7 | |
| Over 9.5 | 43% 3/7 | 43% 3/7 | |
| Over 10.5 | 43% 3/7 | 43% 3/7 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.25 | 2.25 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.13 | 1.50 | |
| Match total | 4.38 | 3.75 | 4.00 |
| Over 3.5 | 63% 5/8 | 50% 4/8 | |
| Over 4.5 | 38% 3/8 | 25% 2/8 | |
| Juventus | Udinese | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.78 | 4.11 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.11 | 6.33 | |
| Match total | 9.89 | 10.44 | 9.08 |
| Over 8.5 | 33% 3/9 | 67% 6/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 33% 3/9 | 56% 5/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 33% 3/9 | 44% 4/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.80 | 2.40 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.80 | 1.40 | |
| Match total | 3.60 | 3.80 | 4.00 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 5/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 20% 2/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Marco Di Bello Italy · 63 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.19league 3.90
Red cards0.21league 0.12
Cards 5+51%league 38%
Fouls26.3league 25.7
Penalties0.40league 0.28
Home wins32%league 37%
Juventus7 with this referee
Record2-4-1
Cards · opp.2.1 · 1.7
Pens for · against3 · 0
Reds1
- D14 Sep 24A · Empoli0–02
- D17 Feb 24A · Verona2–20
- D27 Aug 23H · Bologna1–12
- L8 Apr 23A · Lazio1–25
- W10 Nov 22A · Verona1–03
Udinese4 with this referee
Record1-1-2
Cards · opp.1.8 · 1.5
Pens for · against0 · 2
- L10 Nov 24A · Atalanta1–21
- L9 Dec 23A · Inter0–41
- W26 Aug 22A · Monza2–12
- D13 Mar 22H · AS Roma1–13
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Juventus8 games · scored 9 · conceded 8
1
2
0-15
1
1
16-30
1
2
31-45
1
46-60
1
1
61-75
4
2
76-90
Udinese8 games · scored 10 · conceded 12
1
3
0-15
2
2
16-30
2
1
31-45
4
3
46-60
1
61-75
1
2
76-90
Juventus10 games · scored 13 · conceded 15
1
2
0-15
1
2
16-30
1
2
31-45
2
2
46-60
3
3
61-75
5
4
76-90
Udinese10 games · scored 12 · conceded 17
1
3
0-15
3
2
16-30
2
1
31-45
4
5
46-60
1
2
61-75
1
4
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
