Kasimpasa
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
No forecast yet.
Forecasts are published up to 21 days before kick-off.
Away travel197 kmRest days7 · 7Matches / 14d2 · 2
Real contextStrength only
Kasimpasa—%
Draw—%
Kocaelispor—%
Weather (İstanbul)
Forecast from 8 May
Referee—Not appointed yet
Key insights
Automatic descriptive highlights for Kasimpasa and Kocaelispor. These describe recorded performance and do not change the match forecast. Each metric is ordered within its own type; types alternate to keep the selection varied. Up to six distinct signals per category, with at most three per team.Result statistics require at least five known completed matches. They use the last ten recorded results across all competitions, or the last eight away results. Future, special and invalid results are excluded; missing results can interrupt real-world sequences, so streaks refer to recorded results. 10+ means at least ten within the window.
Bars run oldest to newest. Height shows goals scored, or goals conceded in conceding cards, on the same 0–6 scale. Six or more goals use maximum height; zero retains a small marker. Colour shows the result: teal = win, amber = draw, red = loss. In event and streak cards, solid bars mark the event and faded bars mark its absence. Hover for the date, full score and event. xG and points cards compare their two inputs, not a fabricated history.
xG Difference uses the observed pre-match Playing style averages already shown for this fixture. Window size is not xG coverage, and the two averages can have different denominators. Result statistics use completed matches recorded up to now; their window can differ from the Playing style profile. Season points and xPts are not included here.
Headlines
-
Trend
Kasimpasa
75%
Both teams scored
Last 8 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals scored · W/D/L colours
Solid = Both teams scored -
Insight
Kocaelispor
3
Clean sheets
Last 8 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals scored · W/D/L colours
Solid = Clean sheet -
Trend
Kasimpasa
1.5
Goals scored per match
Last 8 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals scored · W/D/L colours
-
Insight
Kocaelispor
−0.51
xG difference per match
Underlying performance · 10-match window
xG for0.76xG against1.27
-
Insight
Kocaelispor
1.0
Goals conceded per match
Last 8 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals conceded · W/D/L colours
Attack
Defence
-
Insight
Kocaelispor
3
Clean sheets
Last 8 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals scored · W/D/L colours
Solid = Clean sheet -
Insight
Kocaelispor
1.0
Goals conceded per match
Last 8 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals conceded · W/D/L colours
-
Insight
Kocaelispor
−0.51
xG difference per match
Underlying performance · 10-match window
xG for0.76xG against1.27
Streaks
Not enough recorded data for this category yet.
Team strength
KasimpasaKocaelispor
—
L90 StrengthIn forecast
—
23
Current StrengthIn forecast
22
21
AttackIn forecast
16
32
DefenceIn forecast
32
42
Form indexContext
33
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisKocaelispor
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
KasimpasaKocaelispor
1.50
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.13
1.13
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.00
1.08
xGVia Att/Def
0.91
1.14
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.40
+0.42
Goals minus xGContext
+0.22
88%
Scored inContext
75%
25%
Clean sheetsContext
38%
12.13
ShotsContext
11.25
3.75
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.14
31%
On target shareContext
32%
6.50
Shots in the boxContext
6.25
52%
Box shareContext
55%
12%
ConversionContext
10%
2.40
OffsidesContext
1.86
13.88
Shots allowedContext
15.50
4.38
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.29
4.29
BlocksContext
2.88
3.38
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.43
77%
Save rateContext
80%
42%
PossessionIn forecast
48%
334
PassesContext
401
264
Accurate passesContext
323
79%
Pass accuracyContext
81%
6.89
Team ratingContext
6.86
14.25
FoulsContext
12.00
12.75
Fouls sufferedContext
13.88
2.75
Yellow cardsContext
1.50
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.50
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.90
1.20
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.00
1.10
xGVia Att/Def
0.76
1.17
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.27
+0.40
Goals minus xGContext
+0.14
90%
Scored inContext
60%
30%
Clean sheetsContext
30%
11.10
ShotsContext
10.40
3.60
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.75
32%
On target shareContext
29%
6.30
Shots in the boxContext
5.80
57%
Box shareContext
56%
14%
ConversionContext
9%
2.29
OffsidesContext
2.00
13.70
Shots allowedContext
14.60
4.70
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.00
3.78
BlocksContext
2.60
3.60
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.50
77%
Save rateContext
80%
41%
PossessionIn forecast
51%
317
PassesContext
415
248
Accurate passesContext
339
78%
Pass accuracyContext
82%
6.87
Team ratingContext
6.79
14.60
FoulsContext
12.80
11.80
Fouls sufferedContext
14.40
3.10
Yellow cardsContext
1.90
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Kasimpasa
DWDLW
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 42 · 8 pts vs 8.9 for an average club · +1.3 vs expected
Kocaelispor
WLWLL
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel197 km915 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 33 · 6 pts vs 8.0 for an average club · +0.5 vs expected
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Kasimpasa |
Kocaelispor |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 7Süper Lig 2026-2027, 16 May | 7Süper Lig 2026-2027, 16 May |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 197 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 0 km | 915 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 4 | 1 / 2 / 4 |
| Next matchdays after this one | — | — |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Kasimpasa
Last XI · not confirmed
1A. Gianniotis(G)
45A. Karapo
27M. Ilie
4Adem Arous
2C. Winck Neto
26K. Demirbay
16A. Baldursson
7A. Kol
51Elson Mendes
17J. Rak-Sakyi
9A. Benedyczak
Kocaelispor
Last XI · not confirmed
83S. Öztaşdelen(G)
3Muharrem Cinan
5E. Ortakaya
2A. Dijksteel
22U. Yıldız
10B. Kutlu
14Show
20Mahamadou Susoho
26Metehan Altunbaş
7Daniel Agyei
11Gonçalo Sousa
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Kasimpasa
Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
Kocaelispor
Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
Total impact vs full squads
—
Home / Away this season
Kasimpasa · Home
1.50points per game · 4 home games
- W-D-L
- 1-3-0
- Scored
- 1.75
- Conceded
- 1.00
Kocaelispor · Away
0.75points per game · 4 away games
- W-D-L
- 1-0-3
- Scored
- 0.75
- Conceded
- 1.50
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 5 this season
| Opponent | Kasimpasa | Kocaelispor |
|---|---|---|
| Samsunspor | W 4–1 H | W 1–0 H |
| Galatasaray | L 1–3 A | L 0–1 A |
| Konyaspor | D 0–0 H | W 2–1 A |
| Amed | D 2–2 H | W 2–0 H |
| Istanbul Basaksehir | D 1–1 A | L 0–2 A |
| Points | 6 of 15 · 1.20 per game | 9 of 15 · 1.80 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 2 of 2 meetings
0 Kasimpasa wins2 draws0 Kocaelispor wins
Goals per game0.50 – 0.50
Over 2.50%
Both scored50%
Clean sheets50% · 50%
- 3 May 2026Kasimpasa1–1Kocaelispor
- 7 Dec 2025Kocaelispor0–0Kasimpasa
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Kasimpasa | Kocaelispor | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.50 | 1.13 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.13 | 1.00 | |
| Match goals | 2.63 | 2.13 | |
| Over 1.5 | 75% | 75% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 38% | |
| Over 3.5 | 38% | 0% | |
| Both teams scored | 75% | 38% | |
| Clean sheets | 25% | 38% | |
| Failed to score | 13% | 25% | |
| Games | 8 | 8 |
| Kasimpasa | Kocaelispor | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.50 | 0.90 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.20 | 1.00 | |
| Match goals | 2.70 | 1.90 | |
| Over 1.5 | 70% | 60% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 30% | |
| Over 3.5 | 40% | 0% | |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 30% | |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 30% | |
| Failed to score | 10% | 40% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Kasimpasa | Kocaelispor | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.43 | 3.38 | |
| Corners conceded | 6.86 | 5.25 | |
| Match total | 11.29 | 8.63 | 9.12 |
| Over 8.5 | 86% 6/7 | 50% 4/8 | |
| Over 9.5 | 71% 5/7 | 50% 4/8 | |
| Over 10.5 | 57% 4/7 | 25% 2/8 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.75 | 1.50 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.13 | 1.75 | |
| Match total | 4.88 | 3.25 | 4.04 |
| Over 3.5 | 75% 6/8 | 50% 4/8 | |
| Over 4.5 | 50% 4/8 | 13% 1/8 | |
| Kasimpasa | Kocaelispor | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.11 | 3.20 | |
| Corners conceded | 6.67 | 4.70 | |
| Match total | 10.78 | 7.90 | 9.12 |
| Over 8.5 | 89% 8/9 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 56% 5/9 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 44% 4/9 | 20% 2/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 3.20 | 1.90 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.20 | 2.00 | |
| Match total | 5.40 | 3.90 | 4.04 |
| Over 3.5 | 70% 7/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 50% 5/10 | 20% 2/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Goal timing
Kasimpasa8 games · scored 12 · conceded 9
1
0-15
2
2
16-30
1
3
31-45
2
1
46-60
2
61-75
4
3
76-90
Kocaelispor8 games · scored 9 · conceded 8
1
0-15
3
2
16-30
2
31-45
1
46-60
1
2
61-75
4
1
76-90
Kasimpasa10 games · scored 15 · conceded 12
3
0-15
3
2
16-30
1
5
31-45
2
1
46-60
2
1
61-75
4
3
76-90
Kocaelispor10 games · scored 9 · conceded 10
1
0-15
3
2
16-30
2
31-45
1
46-60
1
3
61-75
4
2
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Soon
Real contextLOAD90 forecast: EloLambda plus playing style (possession) and High Congestion.
Pure EloLambdaControl forecast without the LOAD90 factors, as on eScored.
Strength onlyElo and home edge only.
Full squadsBoth teams with every player available.
Neutral venueRemove home advantage.
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